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I was thinking about it, its probably a silly theory but I'll throw it out there anyway... so we do have a jobs problem regardless if unemployment is 5% or 25%. The thing that comes to my mind is that maybe our population is simply outstripping the number of jobs in terms of we just can't make enough jobs for the sheer volume of people who are working age. I know there are other reason economy etc... but I wanted to through that idea out there.
Economy
Employment
Jobs
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 15
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I think it's supply and demand for your respective community. Right place/time and situation alphas a lot to do with it.
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Well, you have to look at a few factors. You have Unemployed (those not employed but actively looking). Underemployed (those employed, but in positions "ill-suited" for their skill sets), and those who aren't employed & NOT looking.
One of the major problems we have is that most new jobs are being created at "service level" which exacerbates the Underemployed issue (and feeds the Unemployed issue, as people don't want to settle).
At any given time we have X populace. For X populace, we need Y work force. It's a "simple" mathematical equation (and by simple, I mean complex). Some of those are going to be military, some are bureaucrat, some are health care, some are service, etc. It's much like the military when talking about Combat Arms, Combat Support, Combat Service Support, and the ratios we have there. We need a certain ratio of "non-working" populace. We also need an economy capable of supporting that ratio. That's the rub.
Right now, we're out of skew, in that our expectations of non-workers is too low, and our income is also too low, likely due to things like debt:income, and spending:income.
One of the major problems we have is that most new jobs are being created at "service level" which exacerbates the Underemployed issue (and feeds the Unemployed issue, as people don't want to settle).
At any given time we have X populace. For X populace, we need Y work force. It's a "simple" mathematical equation (and by simple, I mean complex). Some of those are going to be military, some are bureaucrat, some are health care, some are service, etc. It's much like the military when talking about Combat Arms, Combat Support, Combat Service Support, and the ratios we have there. We need a certain ratio of "non-working" populace. We also need an economy capable of supporting that ratio. That's the rub.
Right now, we're out of skew, in that our expectations of non-workers is too low, and our income is also too low, likely due to things like debt:income, and spending:income.
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LCpl Mark Lefler
So, would raising base incomes help? would having less disparity between the middle and upper class help?
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Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
LCpl Mark Lefler Honest answer, no one knows. Truly honest economists who were talking about the massive increase to the Minimum wage (to $15/hr) said they had no clue what it would do.
However the Pareto principle (80/20) tends to show that there will "always" be a disparity between the classes. When taken to its mathematical extreme, it shows the 1% issue.
This is more a case of having too many people in the work force AND not enough money to support said people.
If we raise the lower wage, we still have too many people, and we (potentially) destabilize the economy. Therefore we need to get folks out of the workforce at the same time.
But the issue we run into isn't the lower bounds (service jobs), it's the middle range (Industry, bureaucracy, military). We have to create jobs in the "Skilled Labor Market" which is not where we are doing it.
As I said, wildly complex.
However the Pareto principle (80/20) tends to show that there will "always" be a disparity between the classes. When taken to its mathematical extreme, it shows the 1% issue.
This is more a case of having too many people in the work force AND not enough money to support said people.
If we raise the lower wage, we still have too many people, and we (potentially) destabilize the economy. Therefore we need to get folks out of the workforce at the same time.
But the issue we run into isn't the lower bounds (service jobs), it's the middle range (Industry, bureaucracy, military). We have to create jobs in the "Skilled Labor Market" which is not where we are doing it.
As I said, wildly complex.
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LCpl Mark Lefler
Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS - I was looking at the issue of gov wanting to have a budget and saving money, but it seems to me cutting 40k military personnel means that's 40k more people looking for work but yet the military keeps recruiting which seems odd, why not keep the people they have... but anyway... 40k more people needing unemployment, new jobs just means they are going to be getting money from the gov till if ever find those new jobs, it seems very circularly bad.
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Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS
LCpl Mark Lefler It's counter intuitive.
Think of it like a bucket with a hole in it. The water you put in it 4 years ago is draining out NOW. That's the 40k you are losing. But in reality, you are losing 60-80k, and you are recruiting 20-40k more people to replace those guys.
We're constantly losing folks from Retirement, Med boards, or just plain EAS. Some of those guys already have jobs lined up as soon as they get out, some are going to college, and sure some will end up on unemployment, but it won't be the full 40k.
Think of it like a bucket with a hole in it. The water you put in it 4 years ago is draining out NOW. That's the 40k you are losing. But in reality, you are losing 60-80k, and you are recruiting 20-40k more people to replace those guys.
We're constantly losing folks from Retirement, Med boards, or just plain EAS. Some of those guys already have jobs lined up as soon as they get out, some are going to college, and sure some will end up on unemployment, but it won't be the full 40k.
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LCpl Mark Lefler - I think there are plenty of jobs for people who want them. The issue is that folks' expectations are higher than reality (won't work certain jobs or for the pay offered) and, of course, the other issue is the expansion of the entitlement mentality in this country. Why work when they can get paid for doing nothing? In addition, technology advances have drastically reduced the number of personnel required to do certain tasks/jobs.
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LCpl Mark Lefler
I don't agree with your view on the entitlement program many people are on it who work, and work hard but their jobs do not meet the cost of living, but I'm not looking to argue that, though it does lead to my point about your post. Plenty of jobs maybe, but so many of those jobs do not meet the cost of living, what do we do about that?
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COL Jean (John) F. B.
LCpl Mark Lefler - You are certainly entitled to your opinion, however, I believe the stats will support my statement.
The issue of pay not being able to meet the cost of living is an issue, however, many of those positions were not meant to be "career positions", as some have tried to make them out to be. In addition, while I know it is easier to say than do, people who are having a hard time making enough to meet the cost of living need to consider moving to where the cost of living may be less and/or adjust their lifestyle to match their income. I know that is a generalization, but there are certainly many, many examples that could be related to prove the point.
There are many who advocate a drastic increase in the minimum wage as the answer, without looking at the unintended consequences of such actions -- lost jobs, higher prices, etc. Should we pay a McDonald's hamburger flipper or counter person $15.00 an hour? Will that solve the problem? Only a fool thinks it would solve the issue without created much bigger issues. The few who get those wages will be happy, but the many who lose their jobs, not so much.
Not an easy answer....
The issue of pay not being able to meet the cost of living is an issue, however, many of those positions were not meant to be "career positions", as some have tried to make them out to be. In addition, while I know it is easier to say than do, people who are having a hard time making enough to meet the cost of living need to consider moving to where the cost of living may be less and/or adjust their lifestyle to match their income. I know that is a generalization, but there are certainly many, many examples that could be related to prove the point.
There are many who advocate a drastic increase in the minimum wage as the answer, without looking at the unintended consequences of such actions -- lost jobs, higher prices, etc. Should we pay a McDonald's hamburger flipper or counter person $15.00 an hour? Will that solve the problem? Only a fool thinks it would solve the issue without created much bigger issues. The few who get those wages will be happy, but the many who lose their jobs, not so much.
Not an easy answer....
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LCpl Mark Lefler
then how do we get people into better jobs? job training? whos going to pay for that? if people can't meet their basic expenses they sure can't afford college or trade school
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CDR Kenneth Kaiser
If you want jobs you need companies or you could start your own business. Now if you are a company do you have demand for your product that will support hiring more folks. What hurdles could you possibly have. Paid sick leave, that means your overhead cost goes up but the government wants to mandate it. Can you compete if your costs go up:
Maybe but how much are you going to pay, oh wait 15 an hour for unskilled labor, I have to factor that in too. Since I am opening up a business that needs skilled labor and unskilled labor is 15 my salary costs just went up significantly. Ok well maybe I can do that wait if I hire more than x number of employees my I now have to pay for health insurance Oh and paid maternity leave for both parents or I have to keep their job open for eight weeks or more that is two months of non productive labor and I have to pay the salary. What our cost of production just went up because they had to convert from coal power to wind power but the wind power can't keep up wait there is another regulation coming out wait, whats that There is a representative from another country who wants me to start up over there It costs how much less? Sounds good to me. And so it goes. We have the highest corportate tax rate, we have never ending regulations many not passed by congress but by government entities we are developing a workforce that expects much but gives little. We have a population that believes in the 5% unemployment rate and thinks corporations are just holding on to their money. We need major changes to get back on track. Increasing costs is not going to help. The miinimum wage is for unskilled labor. This is not thh3 18th century . There is upward mobility you acquire skills you move up
Maybe but how much are you going to pay, oh wait 15 an hour for unskilled labor, I have to factor that in too. Since I am opening up a business that needs skilled labor and unskilled labor is 15 my salary costs just went up significantly. Ok well maybe I can do that wait if I hire more than x number of employees my I now have to pay for health insurance Oh and paid maternity leave for both parents or I have to keep their job open for eight weeks or more that is two months of non productive labor and I have to pay the salary. What our cost of production just went up because they had to convert from coal power to wind power but the wind power can't keep up wait there is another regulation coming out wait, whats that There is a representative from another country who wants me to start up over there It costs how much less? Sounds good to me. And so it goes. We have the highest corportate tax rate, we have never ending regulations many not passed by congress but by government entities we are developing a workforce that expects much but gives little. We have a population that believes in the 5% unemployment rate and thinks corporations are just holding on to their money. We need major changes to get back on track. Increasing costs is not going to help. The miinimum wage is for unskilled labor. This is not thh3 18th century . There is upward mobility you acquire skills you move up
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