Anyone concerned about what Russia’s long game might be?

SGT Dave Tracy — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 10:27:18 -0500

Whatcha up to there Ivan?

A few years back, one of our leading presidential candidates stated that Russia was our greatest threat/adversary; the political opposition laughed-sometimes literally. Not too many are laughing now. Whether or not Russia had any top level effect on the last election remains to be seen, but it’s beyond question that they have actively been trying to sow discord in our country and others. They have a presence on all social media platforms—I’m sure that includes this one (Good morning Ivan!)—and have been rather busy of late leveraging our divisions. Add to this, their actions in Georgia, Ukraine, and their newest military test-bed, Syria. Lastly, they have spent the last few years pumping up R&D for military applications and are starting to field some impressive hardware (I give credit where it’s due).

To what end?

What is their 5-10-20 year vision? Parity with the US and a return to the level of power and respect enjoyed by the USSSR? Or could it be a grander, darker, scheme? Is our view of modern Russia’s intentions affected by whether or not we are old enough to remember the old Soviet Union?

What sayeth ye? (Ivan, butt-out on this one.)

Response by SGM Mikel Dawson made Nov 7 at 2017 10:32 AM

SGM Mikel Dawson — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 10:32:31 -0500

As a kid I remember hearing about Russia (USSR) " We don't have to invade the U.S., the U.S. will fall from the inside." Just waiting on the side lines waiting for the implosion.

Response by SSG Edward Tilton made Nov 7 at 2017 10:34 AM

SSG Edward Tilton — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 10:34:15 -0500

It is not Russia the State, It is a conclave of billionaires sucking the life out of everyone. How much is enough

Response by MSG Stan Hutchison made Nov 7 at 2017 10:43 AM

MSG Stan Hutchison — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 10:43:24 -0500

A major failing on our part (the US) is we tend to believe other people think just as we do. We saw in the past (especially WWII, Korea, and Vietnam) that they don't. Sadly, we have not learned from our history.
Russia does not think or believe as we think they do/should. They are a nation that paid a tremendous price in previous wars. They are culturally afraid of foreign powers. They have been invaded a number of times, each time extracting a terrible toll.
So, what is their game-plan? Only a strong scholar in Russian history and social culture could come close to an accurate estimate. I can't and won't.

Response by SSgt Gary Andrews made Nov 7 at 2017 10:46 AM

SSgt Gary Andrews — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 10:46:04 -0500

Russia has never been our friend, but I had no idea they were currently working hard to undermine the USA. I too, thought that Romney was sounding a false alarm....but he has proven to be correct. What puzzles me is how just 4 years after their nominee sounded the alarm about Russia, the GOP seems to be ok with Trump wanting to cozy up to them. What changed in 4 years, other than them jumping knee deep into our latest election?

Response by CAPT Kevin B. made Nov 7 at 2017 11:08 AM

CAPT Kevin B. — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 11:08:08 -0500

There's a theory out there that Russia's long game is to put as much CO2 in the air as they can to get the global warming up enough to open up the Arctic waters. Plans are in place for ports, rail, etc. They started that push decades ago. It's a win-win. Everyone else suffers while they get fat in a warmer climate.

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Nov 7 at 2017 11:57 AM

CPT Jack Durish — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 11:57:27 -0500

I suspect that we are making an enemy of Russia to provide cover for our own mishandling of domestic affairs. When the Democrats insist that Hillary lost because of Russian interference, they are not only missing the real cause of her failure (she's a terrible candidate) but also giving Russian leaders reason to believe that we might do something more than use them as a whipping dog. I have often wondered how well we might get along if we stopped this. After all, Russia is sitting atop a wealth of natural resources and need the expertise we have for developing them. Seems to me like the basis of a great friendship.

Response by PO3 Donald Murphy made Nov 7 at 2017 12:48 PM

PO3 Donald Murphy — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 12:48:15 -0500

Firstly, nothing is hidden. Only that which we allow to be hidden. Russia is Germany's tool. They have been for some time. They have tons of natural gas but no tech/know-how to get it to customers. Enter Germany. Germany pipes, pumps and manages Russia's GAZPROM empire. The customer is the European Union at set rates/levels. The EU is a captive audience type of customer. In other words, they won't ever NOT be a Russian customer. When an EU nation complains about something unfair or aggressive that Germany is doing, Merkel picks up the phone and next thing you know, Russia's doing something "mean". Merkel will then fly out to Moscow, publicly "talk" to Putin and the issue will be smoothed over. Merkel will then be lauded as a peacemaker extraordinaire and that's that.

Secondly, "tons" of natural gas really isn't measurable. Its beyond that. So much so, that China has convinced Russia that it has enough gas to supply to Asia as well. Now, Russia is still unable to pump its own stuff so the Chinese have volunteered to do the same thing for Russia that Germany does for Russia. "But how will the product get to the customer?" Ah...patience young Jedi. The Chinese have agreed *FOR FREE* to rebuild/repair/refurbish Russia's Eastern rail links. Once this gets done sometime in 2020, two main things will happen: (a) China can access Russian mil-spares that it tends to enjoy, but in a walmart type 24x7 setting and (b) China will have a German-type power in Asia whereby the USA may see a lot of customers moving towards a "China-only" business model. Similar to the way that Germany has pushed the USA out of Europe. **THIS** would actually be more damaging to America than a gun-to-gun war with China.

Thirdly, failure doesn't lie. The Russian Navy's carrier being towed into battle was real. Historical buffs are quick to point out that HMS Warspite was towed to Normandy to take part in the D-Day battle, but that was during WW2 and that was after HMS Warspite had been attacked by three air raids, damaged, etc. What's Russia's excuse? Like France, Russia has put most of its military on the store shelves. And everyone is buying. India, China, Syria, etc. The latest Russian fighter made a characteristic air show failure at Farnborough. You can't photoshop this. Failure is real and its there. And even if we give Russia a 100% material condition status, they weren't that good when they were "good." Russia's LST's were unable to land more than one tank at a time. Her troop ships had small capacities. So its unlikely the Russians would pit this lean force against anyone on a size level of the USA. Its just not gonna happen.

Fourthly, we are our own worst enemy. Most, if not all of our DoD is using Chinese computers and Russian software. So tell me again how Russia hacked our election? Hard was it? Really? Well thats strange because kids hacked major stuff a few years ago using COTS gear. So I doubt *REALLY REALLY REALLY* much that Russia is devoting corps level resources to the USA's computer world. Anonymous hits the USA regularly and no one suggests that it's devoting "nation-sized" assets to perform these hacks. As sloppy as we are in our quest to glean the most dollars, we have allowed sloppiness in security. In our effort to put i's and HD's in front of everything, "secure portals" are a mostly thing of the past. God forbid a firewall prevents little Buffy and Chip from downloading cat videos at 1080dp.

Response by SGT David T. made Nov 7 at 2017 12:59 PM

SGT David T. — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 12:59:42 -0500

Russia's long game is the same as it always is. Advance their interests while hindering their rivals. Funny, sounds like ours lol.

Response by LTJG Richard Bruce made Nov 7 at 2017 1:04 PM

LTJG Richard Bruce — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 13:04:26 -0500

Take over of Crimea was purely economical. Russia needed a warm water port to help their ocean shipping industry. Same for their decision to manage a percentage of US uranium business. Russia's economy relies mainly on oil and natural gas. Low oil prices is harming revenue. Exports of natural gas to Europe is keeping Russia afloat. Which is why opposition to Ukraine is weak. Russia needs Crimea to build a gas pipeline to Middle East with links to North Africa.

Response by AA Joseph Moody made Nov 7 at 2017 1:29 PM

AA Joseph Moody — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 13:29:16 -0500

I've been doing the digital art thing for the past few years and that is a fairly international crowd so here is my observations as a character artist/ game dev about what I've seen from Russians.

1- They love computers, Serious if someone was to look for training on anything online in questionable places they will find that any and everything computer training related is mirrored on russian servers, which considering the size of the nation it is not abnormal but...there is a thoroughness with it that is noteworthy. BTW Russia is where cracks and spyware comes from so for the love of all things please do not install cracks on a computer with personal information on it.

2- They do a lot of ghost work when it comes to computers. Russia has an entire industry based on the fact that europe sucks when it comes to computer work, if it can be done remotely they will do it for you in your name for a price.

3- Many Russian gamers speak nearly perfect english. VOIP and online gaming has done quite a bit to help english become a universal language, so when it comes to those FB ads it may have been Russia's version of 4-chan just having fun rather than a government operation (yeah I feel so much better about that)

Response by Sgt Wayne Wood made Nov 7 at 2017 3:12 PM

Sgt Wayne Wood — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 15:12:26 -0500

Russia/Soviet Union strategic thinking hasn’t changed since playing the “Great Game” against the British Empire ... expansion south to warm-water ports, expansion west to dominate Europe, & securing the eastern frontier from the Mongol Hordes...

Basically just add oil & access to other resources to the geopolitical equation & you have their short, medium, & long-term goals

Response by SFC Michael Hasbun made Nov 7 at 2017 5:50 PM

SFC Michael Hasbun — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 17:50:02 -0500

Same as every other country on the planet. Become the most powerful, dominate resources.

Response by SGT Tony Clifford made Nov 7 at 2017 5:51 PM

SGT Tony Clifford — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 17:51:26 -0500

Russia is in a precarious position. They have no real industry save for petroleum and are surrounded by enemies. To the east is the US, China to the south the EU to the west. Their ports ice over 6 months of the year. The people have been defeated by 1000 years of oligarchy be it the tcarz, Soviets or the current despotism it suffers under. Putin knows that he's riding a bear with a very weak grip. One slip and he'll provoke revolution. So he is taking his time to solidify his power. He uses propaganda like RT to increase his soft power. He fights wars against easily defeated foes. And he uses proxies to exert influence in regions he has no ability to project power in. He does this because he knows that Russia can't become the superpower it once was, but his people and enemies will think that they are if they can keep winning small victories. He's playing the role of a smart dictator, because his people will string him up if he makes a single miscalculation. All this in the hopes that the US and China will tear themselves apart without Russia ever needing to engage.