Based on the low selection numbers for MSG this year, how does everyone see the selection rate for SFC?

I think that because of the low amount of Soldiers selected for promotion to MSG, there will be significantly fewer Soldiers selected for promotion to SFC. While this is to be expected due to the drawdown within the Army, I think there are a couple things that will result from this;

1-With selection criteria becoming more stringent, only the best will get selected thereby building a better Army in the long run.

2-There will be more people retiring, getting chaptered out, and ETS'ing earlier than initially planned.

Is there anything else I'm missing? I think these are the biggest outcomes, but there may be something else I hadn't thought about.

Trend wise, the year they only picked up 2 13F's for MSG the SFC list of promotions was a big fat 0. Granted the next year they selected around 380 for SFC. This year out of a pool of close to 300 13F's considered for MS only 29 were selected. Barely a dent so, only speaking for MOS, but promotions to SFC may be slim. The MOS, positions available, QSP's and QMP's are the factors that determine who and how many are picked up now.

Team,

First, the quasi low promotions is tertarially a result of the drawdown. I know because I m tracking Total Army Analysis, TAA in AR 71-11, as a Force Manager. Right now the Army is trying to determine what they need to "look like" in FY 18-22... This year has been whose than last year due to where the force structure should be... So it doesn't make sense to promote to any MOS/grade until the Army determines what the future force is going to look like.

I didn't realize this in 92/93 after Desert Shield/Desert Storm... And it was much more drastic during that time.

I recommend patients for the next two FYs... As it took until 95 to rebound after that reorganization.

If you don't believe... As someone else who lived and saw it.