Do you think the current Russian-Ukraine War will lead to another global conflict?

SSG(P) Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 14:34:25 -0400

WWII started after Germany invaded Poland, leading to France and Britain declaring war on Germany. With that said, Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems similar, so do you think that this could lead to another global conflict, or if China attempts to invade Taiwan? PFC Private RallyPoint Member SFC Joe S. Davis Jr., MSM, DSL LTC Stephen F. CPL Dave Hoover SGT David A. 'Cowboy' Groth SSG Private RallyPoint Member Lt Col Charlie Brown LTC Private RallyPoint Member

Response by SFC David Reid, M.S, PHR, SHRM-CP, DTM made Sep 3 at 2022 2:50 PM

SFC David Reid, M.S, PHR, SHRM-CP, DTM — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 14:50:25 -0400

I don't think so, because we have Article 5 speaking about to coming to the aid of allies. I don't think we want to be dragged into a full scaled conflict. I do know that we have the V Corps already preposition ready to intercede if warranted.

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2022 3:02 PM

CPT Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 15:02:29 -0400

The obvious weakness of US foreign policy is more likely to cause that war rather than a hot regional conflict.

Response by SPC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2022 3:41 PM

SPC Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 15:41:43 -0400

Possible.

US is seen as weak, the withdrawal from Afghanistan didn't help that. However the US is also projecting economic and military strength by propping up Ukraine and potentially Taiwan. Neither of which could stand alone against Russia or China, but with NATO and Quad support it's possible unless resources run dry.

Throw Iran and North Korea into the mix, as well as the fact that the four are trying to create their own alliance to counter NATO and other Western allies it has the potential for a global conflict, especially with all of the other smaller conflicts the US and Russia are already invested in.

Russia will either back down after claiming some victory, or we will push them into a corner forcing them to push, hopefully not with nukes. What could also happen as a coup in Russia if the people become too negatively impacted by Putins policies. This could be a win for us or it could result in typical tyrannical behavior where despots go for broke.

Russia did seriously miscalculate. I think they thought we wouldn't intervene like with Crimea and now they're facing a strengthening NATO which is the opposite of what they want.

As for China, they'll either back off Taiwan or go for it. They've already proven they're trying to avoid war but at the same time not appear weak. If they go for it we get involved like we promised or we break another promise proving again to the world Americans shouldn't be trusted. Alternatively Taiwan gets nervous and attacks a Chinese aircraft or naval vessel playing chicken and China invades claiming they were provoked forcing us again either in or out.

Iran, hard to say. The nuke deal is supposedly going well but they also tried to steal one of our drones recently so... Meh.

North Korea, the nation state equivalent of the short bus. They won't do anything unless pushed into a corner. Hopefully their people eat their gerbil king and screw over China by reuniting with South Korea, but I doubt it.

Really we're looking at a lot of what ifs.

Response by SGT David A. 'Cowboy' Groth made Sep 3 at 2022 5:39 PM

SGT David A. 'Cowboy' Groth — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 17:39:16 -0400

I honestly don't think so brother SSG(P) Private RallyPoint Member , Russia has bitten off more than it can chew, the Ukraine seems to be holding off pretty good brother.

Response by SSgt Christophe Murphy made Sep 3 at 2022 7:20 PM

SSgt Christophe Murphy — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 19:20:38 -0400

It depends on what you mean by global conflict. I don’t think it will be WW3 but there has certainly been global impact caused by what Russia has decided to do.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2022 7:35 PM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 03 Sep 2022 19:35:46 -0400

This is really nothing like that. This is more like the USSR invading Afghanistan and the US providing support, except on a successful scale.

Russia has discovered that its military is significantly less powerful and capable than they appeared before the invasion. Their reserves are running low, they've either lost their best equipment or are unable to position it effectively now, and their war supply surpluses were looted during the kleptocratcy years. They may appear strong to a small nation, but they lack the funds and resources to fight a larger nation now.

Their most effective strategy at this point is to look dangerous and make threats to deter other nations from intervening. "When you are weak, make your enemy believe you are strong". They can't threaten anyone else with anything except their Northern Fleet, Hypersonic missiles, and Nuclear war. Those are Russias big cards left in the deck.

The Northern Fleet is pretty restricted to the north and surrounded by enough of our allies to dampen their effect. The hypersonic missiles haven't been successfully fitted with nuclear weapons so they're really just cruise missiles at this point, plus guidance systems aren't accurate enough to use for longer range targets yet. Nuclear war is a position where everyone loses, so Russia is likely to threaten that but unlikely to use it unless they are being overrun. Any nuclear strike runs the risk of a retaliatory nuclear strike that would sterilize a large swath of land and render it unusable for an entire lifetime or more.

So, what you get is Sabre rattling from a country along with an internal propoganda campaign to convince the people.

These days, politicians are extremely reluctant to declare open war. Instead they publicly condemn, and secretly send supplies to rebels in order to present one face in politics while maneuvering with a face toward striking at the enemy. Politics are funky, but all wars are just an extension of politics, and neither side is willing to declare open war yet

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 4 at 2022 10:20 AM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 04 Sep 2022 10:20:18 -0400

Russia and Belarus vs everyone else isn’t exactly a global conflict

Response by SGT Mary G. made Sep 4 at 2022 10:58 PM

SGT Mary G. — Sun, 04 Sep 2022 22:58:19 -0400

SSG(P) Private RallyPoint Member What you describe seems like the long - range plan of good buddies Russia and China. The world of nations does not have to cooperate with it. If China invades Taiwan, it won't be a mere attempt. I would happen in a heartbeat.
For U.S. to touch that with a 10 foot pole, imho, would make us the fools, when it is obvious what the tag-team China and Russia are are trying to do on two fronts. The world of nations does not have to cooperate with their plans.
I believe it is our nation's job not to even consider being goaded into cooperating. We are a much more powerful and respectable nation, imo, when we do not try top manage everything politically, and "rescue" everyone militarily.

Response by SGT Carl Blas made Sep 5 at 2022 4:24 PM

SGT Carl Blas — Mon, 05 Sep 2022 16:24:39 -0400

No, winter is coming.

Response by GySgt Charles O'Connell made Sep 10 at 2022 11:55 AM

GySgt Charles O'Connell — Sat, 10 Sep 2022 11:55:46 -0400

The German invasion of Poland was, so to say, the straw that broke the camels back. Germany had been systematically making advances through Europe while paying lip service to Britain and France, as well as Russia. The same scenario is not playing out today. Russia has taken, and is consolidating, what it wanted, control of southern Ukraine and the Black Sea region. A quick review of the Russian movements doesn't fit a strategy for taking the whole country, to do so it would have been strategically and tactically sounder to invade demonstrably from the north and the east, with the greatest effort on taking Kiev.
Will their actions lead to another global conflict similar to WWII?? No, not by themselves. Doing so unilaterally, or in unison with a partner nation, would cause an economic devastation that would take generations to rally from.

Response by CSM Darieus ZaGara made Sep 10 at 2022 12:00 PM

CSM Darieus ZaGara — Sat, 10 Sep 2022 12:00:04 -0400

Never say never, just doesn’t appear likely. In any case we have an indecisive Command And Chief. I am Leary of his advisors. If the Boss remains strong and has good council all will be well in the world. This is of course if Russia does not attack directly a NATO Member.