Has the Army reoriented yet from insurgency warfare tactics to heavy conventional warfare tactics?

2021-04-03T07:30:28-04:00

It looks like increasingly the next war is going to be against a heavy conventional warfare opponent vs an insurgency. Given that our last few wars have been insurgencies I would expect the DoD to shift over training and tactics with an accompanying boost in the training part of the DoD budget. Yet I have not seen either yet. So I am curious if that shift has even taken place within the Army or Marine Corps.

Response by Lt Col Charlie Brown made Apr 3 at 2021 8:06 AM

2021-04-03T08:06:53-04:00

I haven't seen any evidence of it either and that's worrying.

Response by Sgt Jamie Beaulieu made Apr 3 at 2021 8:23 AM

2021-04-03T08:23:19-04:00

I was hoping the Marine Corps was about to actually prepare to fight a guerrilla war in the late 90's when I was selected to make the transition from Sergeant to Second Lieutenant after passing through the Naval War College Marine Detachment for Officer Selection and Training, but though I heard interest among the senior military leaders brought there to speak with us those conversations always ended with a statement like "if we can get Washington on board". I saw the color coded terror alert system tested there for the first time in 1998. Beyond that there was some talk of what would be required to prevent a knee jerk reaction to terrorist attacks we then knew were being planned, some discussion of how success in Bosnia/Herzegovina might inform our preparation for war in Iraq, but little to nothing was said of Afghanistan that I can recall. Essentially, they remained focused on heavy conventional warfare in spite of having been repeatedly warned that any prolonged deployment to Afghanistan or Iraq was likely to devolve into a battle to prevent guerrilla fighters from outside those nations and insurgents from within them from expanding the war into the surrounding region. I found that perplexing given that Muslim extremists had been working to destabilize territories throughout Africa and Asia for nearly a decade by then and were clearly poised to see a surge in interest if we deployed.

Personally, I think our predecessors managed that part of the world effectively despite terrorist attack. In fact I believe those acts of desperation made it all the more clear that extremists were frustrated by our efforts to restrict their impact to border regions and underdeveloped nations like Afghanistan and Somalia. There was little new to the approach al Qaeda took. They merely adapted strategy used by the Palestinian Liberation Army before them to capture aircraft for ransom and used it to make a more profound statement instead. Nothing they did inside the Middle East itself had changed. The only reason they had more success is because we failed to adequately secure our airlines against the probing identified before that attack and then brought a war to their backyard.

I'm not sure you can say we adapted to Insurgency Warfare when we've yet to prevent an insurgency from devolving into regional conflict so I'm obviously having trouble getting to where you are here. I apologize for that. What I think I can say is that overall our defense structure never made the transition away from conventional warfare so it's probably safe to say the Army isn't far off the target. I mean the tools and knowhow are there so we're really talking preparation. That may seem simple enough but I must admit it could be challenging. After all, the tools knowhow for fighting guerrillas and insurgents was there and we failed to make that transition in time.

Response by SSG Samuel Kermon made Apr 3 at 2021 8:41 AM

2021-04-03T08:41:24-04:00

The next opponent is probably China, a close second is Russia. Both are huge militaries and will require a huge presence in our military. Having said that I think that our current structure will not change until circumstances dictate change. Look at what happened pre-WW2. Our forces were more prepared for the insurgent wars of Honduras and Guatemala than the large area battles of Africa and Europe.

Response by MSG Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 3 at 2021 9:21 AM

2021-04-03T09:21:38-04:00

The Army is bringing back Near Peer training.

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Apr 3 at 2021 9:22 AM

2021-04-03T09:22:50-04:00

Somebody had better figure it out. Personally, I am reluctant to support any effort to focus on insurgent warfare. We wasted a lot of time (not to mention blood and treasure) fighting in Vietnam as an insurgency. It was an invasion and we didn't have any success until we began to engage the invaders. Then there's the question of what business have we interfering in a true insurgency? Our nation is founded on the premise that people (ALL people) have a right to "...abolish [their existing government], and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness." As for terrorists, they should be treated as pirates (criminals), and there's plenty of extant international law regarding piracy. We should enforce it.

Response by 1SG Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 3 at 2021 9:45 AM

2021-04-03T09:45:29-04:00

The Army started the transition to large scale ground combat back around 2015ish. They did this by switching the scenario at the Combat Training Centers (JRTC, NTC, MNTC). They have even renamed the villages in the training area from Arabic to European names and are working on remodeling so the building look European.

Response by 2LT Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 3 at 2021 10:22 AM

2021-04-03T10:22:15-04:00

Absolutely. NTC, JRTC and the like started shifting focus to at least Hybrid warfare in 14/15, and it is the primary focus of TRADOC stuff now. I recently graduated OCS (after a full enlisted career leading to my time as a 1SG), and I’m now in IBOLC; the focus on fighting a peer/near peer is very real, and the most focused on such that I’ve seen over the past 20 years.

Response by CW2 Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 3 at 2021 11:05 AM

2021-04-03T11:05:53-04:00

Near Peer threat is the next likely prediction, or it'll be via proxy conflicts. The main thing we need is the Armor Branch to get back to its roots. Of all the branches, they lost the most in experience during the last 20 years and it will take time to build truly developed and skilled Scouts and Tankers.

Response by CSM Danny S. made Apr 3 at 2021 12:46 PM

2021-04-03T12:46:38-04:00

The Army has been transitioning back to near peer combat tactics for some time now. The biggest change can be seen in the newer doctrine where they have transitioned to pre GWOT like doctrine with some tweaks. Additionally the Army has brought back V Corps with a focus on Europe. As for additional money, I have not seen any increase in funding. If anything it is starting to shrink.

Response by LTC Jason Mackay made Apr 3 at 2021 1:32 PM

2021-04-03T13:32:18-04:00

SPC Erich Guenther Yes, LSCO, large scale contingency operations, is the term. It's been ongoing for the last 4-5 years. As 1SG Private RallyPoint Member said 2015 they started doing CTC rotations with LSCO but keeping all the civilians on the battlefield and asymmetric threats that were eating our lunch.

The Marines divested their tanks, they are refocused on the Pacific. There have been articles about the Marines being the antiship people. They are also looking to replace the AAV which will be a large outlay for them.

The Army for the first time since WWII is looking at strategy and doctrine for amphibious and littoral operations, which will be followed by training and dollars. Countering Russian ascension in Europe is a mix of LSCO and operations below the threshold of armed conflict as Russia tries to subvert and undermine neighboring states through paramilitary proxies, cyber attacks, and other gray area operations. This is why the Army is rotating in and out of Eastern Europe. The Army Futures Command is focused on vehicle/combat system strategies and acquisition of a vehicle fleet mix to do all this. The Army is also refocused on deference in Arctic Regions, which is the shortest route from Russia to CONUS.

I think the short term winner in the budget race will end up being the Navy to deter and counter adversaries in the maritime domain.

It boils down to the PRC and the 9 island chain.

Response by SFC Randy Hellenbrand made Apr 3 at 2021 6:48 PM

2021-04-03T18:48:34-04:00

The Great Leader missed this one. Approximately 2016 we started gearing towards Europe. Somebody realized who was a bigger danger.

Response by SGT Roland Sharpe made Apr 4 at 2021 4:00 AM

2021-04-04T04:00:12-04:00

No matter the mission, learning and mastering the basics will keep you and your fire team alive. The only thing constant is change, know your weapon and you will make it.

Response by John Brown made Apr 4 at 2021 1:17 PM

2021-04-04T13:17:28-04:00

every signal at the moment would suggest this is the appropriate transition given the likelihood that the next big theatre will be global in scale and require a heavy conventional response. Brass is always slow to transition on a grand scale but limited operational units are already adopting new policies moving forward. i would not find concern that in your role you cannot see what is meant to be hidden.

“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

Response by SFC Melvin Brandenburg made Apr 5 at 2021 11:56 AM

2021-04-05T11:56:30-04:00

No, and we'd better get our heads out of our duffelbags. Russia is building up in the arctic and the Chinese are building up their naval forces. If we had to fight a two front war, I don't know if people could stomach a total war scenario like we had with Japan and Germany, but add in the component that geography is not a barrier anymore so we would see devastation at home too. It would be ugly all the way around.

Response by MAJ Jeffrey Johnson made May 11 at 2021 4:10 PM

2021-05-11T16:10:30-04:00

We'll know when we hear movement to contact, hasty attack, deliberate attack, defend, and withdraw.