How does America’s past inform Afghanistan’s future?

SPC Dr. Ernest Rockwell — Thu, 03 Dec 2015 14:33:51 -0500

http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/bookinfo.asp?bid=563
by Lt Col Marc E. Greene, USAF

A comparative history of Afghanistan and the post-Civil War US South societies reveals the sharing of three important traits: highly differentiated class structures, ethnically and economically diverse societal mosaics, and a belief in peripheral and societal autonomy. The author of this paper explores the prospects for either renewed civil war or stable peace in Afghanistan after US and coalition military forces withdraw. The comparison with the South after April 1865 suggests that political reconciliation with Taliban leaders, sustained peace, and stable economic growth are possible. The study concludes that Afghanistan’s fate rests with the Afghan people and not the international community, despite the weight of effort expended by the US and coalition nations since October 2001.

Response by LTC Stephen F. made Dec 3 at 2015 2:40 PM

LTC Stephen F. — Thu, 03 Dec 2015 14:40:58 -0500

Unfortunately for Afghanistan their heritage is Muslim unlike the United Sates which ranged from nominal christianity to sincere christianity SPC Dr. Ernest Rockwell.
Prior to the Civil War the South had significant economic trade with other nations particularly those in Europe. The lengthy coastline afforded many ports to ship cotton, sugar, tobacco and other products.
Unfortunately for Afghanistan they are landlocked in between nations which barely tolerate them at times.

Response by SGT David T. made Dec 3 at 2015 3:23 PM

SGT David T. — Thu, 03 Dec 2015 15:23:35 -0500

I just read the abstract and I think it is a hard connection to make between the two conflicts. The cultures are very different with very different societal norms. Reconciliation and peace are possible but given the more recent history following the Soviet withdraw, I think we can get a better picture of the probable outcomes.

Response by PO1 William "Chip" Nagel made Dec 3 at 2015 7:59 PM

PO1 William "Chip" Nagel — Thu, 03 Dec 2015 19:59:04 -0500

If Britian and Russian couldn't get them to play nice the US has no chance. It really is up to the Afghans and them Alone.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Dec 11 at 2019 2:38 PM

MAJ Ken Landgren — Wed, 11 Dec 2019 14:38:06 -0500

I say the comparison of Vietnam with Afghanistan would be the best:
- If you cant find the enemy due to the terrain and mixing in with society you can't kill them.
- There was no way we can protect all the hamlets, and the enemy forced them to take sides.
- If we attack an area and fly out, the enemy still has the terrain.
- If we kill one villager, the whole village will despise us.
- Fighting ideology is almost impossible.
- We redefined victory in Vietnam. It's a democracy and it's time to leave!

Response by LCDR Joshua Gillespie made Dec 12 at 2019 8:58 AM

LCDR Joshua Gillespie — Thu, 12 Dec 2019 08:58:55 -0500

I'm a southerner, and I spent some time in Afghanistan. I'm also a former student of Craig Symonds, whose probably forgotten more about the Civil War then I'll ever know. Respectfully, I'd say the comparison doesn't ring true.

To begin with, Afghan culture is potentially much more complex. Not only are there critical regional and tribal affiliations... but ethnic variations that don't mirror the relatively binary situation in the US during the 19th Century. Beyond that, the Taliban represents more an ideological movement than any official government. You simply cannot compare the Union and CSA to the Northern Alliance and the Taliban...a closer comparison would likely be the Protestant parliamentarians vs. the Royalists in the English Civil War. Even then however, it's impossible to make a direct comparison towards any feasible prediction.

My prediction is based on more recent regional history. Afghanistan was only and ever going to end up fundamentally Islamic...the only question was whether or not it would be extremist as envisioned by the Taliban, predominantly Sunni, Shia, or some mix of the two. I believe they'll drift towards maintaining a Sunni majority... which means the Shia will continue to be an "underclass".