How is Lanchester's Square Law to be applied to the Russo-Ukrainian War?

2022-07-20T02:33:44-04:00

Lanchester's Square Law. Considering the forces of Russia vs the support the NATO Alliance is giving the Ukraine. Think about it and comment please.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanchester%27s_laws

Bad title - Wikipedia

Response by CSM Chuck Stafford made Jul 20 at 2022 6:12 AM

2022-07-20T06:12:05-04:00

Probably applied in hindsight, if at all

Response by CSM William Everroad made Jul 20 at 2022 4:29 PM

2022-07-20T16:29:28-04:00

SFC Ralph E Kelley Lanchester's Square Law is overly simplistic for asymmetric warfare. It is predicated on aimed fire and deliberate engagements between combatants. Honestly, I don't think it could be applied at all except to show the constraints of the variables and assumptions given the difficulty that far superior forces have experienced in combat (historically).

However, you could make the case that should enough analysis be applied beforehand, a military could use Lanchester's Square Law as a basis for committing specific numbers of forces to a subset of a campaign given enough intelligence about a structured enemy. I would be willing to bet that Russian planners used some napkin math, but the campaign fell apart when the intelligence did not take into account the increased armament of the local population and asymmetric warefare.

Even if we were to postulate that NATO could use Lanchester's Square Law to predict the number of troops to commit to defending Ukraine (or some derivative that converted to dollars of support), the truth remains that Ukraine is not a NATO member and thus any potential involvement would have to be scrutinized to ensure compliance with NATO's mission. Short of a full-scale commitment of bodies by NATO, Lanchester's Square Law would dictate that even with enough money and equipment, there would not be enough people left in Ukraine to take part in the battle.

Response by SGM Mikel Dawson made Jul 21 at 2022 12:17 AM

2022-07-21T00:17:30-04:00

Look at WWII, look at what the Russians did and how they did it. Look at their doctrine.