If I get passed over for promotion: Should I stay or should I go?

CW3 Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 12:28:47 -0500

I'm a TPU Reservist CW2 255A (Signal). This April is my first look for CW3, to be promoted next year if I make it. I've already decided that if I don't make it (I find out in July) that I'll put in a packet for retirement.

Mentioning that makes many want to convince me to stay.

They tell me it's a numbers game, and IF I get passed over this April, that's no indicator that I'd get passed over next April.

I have all COM OERs, except for my last one which was an ACOM from the rater only. The senior rater was made to be someone from the unit's higher HQs in Indianapolis who doesn't know me and never met me.

I have a Master's degree and two Bachelor's degrees, but no current industry certifications.

The selection rate in 2014 for SC TPU CW2s was 85%. That could be taken one of two ways....either they have a dire need for CW3s in my field, or they've got enough now, and the next selection rate will be a lot lower.

So...I'm throwing the question open to RallyPoint: If I get passed over in my first look, should I stay in for my 2nd look, or should I retire right away?

NOTE: If I do stay after getting passed over once, and I get passed over twice, I will HAVE to retire anyway...I won't get a choice. USARC brought back the 'two strikes and you're out' rule for Warrant Officers.

UPDATE AS OF 1 DECEMBER 2018 - Obviously, I made it. Thank you everyone for your input. My next promotion I've already decided is my last, whether I make it or not. I don't have to worry about it for another three years or so.

Response by CPT Zachary Brooks made Mar 5 at 2015 12:29 PM

CPT Zachary Brooks — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 12:29:45 -0500

Correct me if I am wrong (since you Chiefs are strange animals) but don't you get promoted anyway a year later? Then of course two years after that you will be cemented in the rank for retirement.

Is one year really going to be that much of a problem?

Beyond that, stay in for the second look and begin to plan for the transition such as starting to get a few established certs (should at least get you another quick look on a civilian resume).

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Mar 5 at 2015 12:35 PM

Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 12:35:56 -0500

Do you still enjoy it? Do you think it's time for you to move onto the next phase in your life?

Look at it outside the "up or out" mindset. Let's say you were a CW5 right now, with no possibility for further advancement, what would your course of action be?

Response by CW2 Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 5 at 2015 1:21 PM

CW2 Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 13:21:22 -0500

If your heart isn't in it then take a long look at your military career from that standpoint. But if you really like serving then make them say no to you. Don't give up on something to which you have spent years of dedication.

Response by SSgt James Lanning made Mar 5 at 2015 1:28 PM

SSgt James Lanning — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 13:28:16 -0500

Get out while there isn't an uprising.

Response by Lt Col Jim Coe made Mar 5 at 2015 1:30 PM

Lt Col Jim Coe — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 13:30:59 -0500

Understand the anxiety of waiting for promotion board results (BTDT), but it is important to be both patient and to plan for all options. Work as though you expect to be promoted.

I don't know all the rules for reserve component personnel, but am very familiar with the "two-strikes and you're out" policy. Consider these factors:
-Will your family support your decision either way?
-Is your current civilian employment compatible with your Reserve duty? (If you don't have a civilian job, are job prospects in your area of expertise good?)
-Are you still able to perform well in your selected specialty--physically, mentally, spiritually?
-Do you enjoy the reserve job?
-Does your current commander or supervisor support you?
If yes to all five points, then sticking out for a second look is probably a good idea.

Response by TSgt Joshua Copeland made Mar 5 at 2015 2:06 PM

TSgt Joshua Copeland — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 14:06:51 -0500

I actually get asked this question a lot, so here are some thought.

Are you prepared now to get out? Have all the education, certifications, etc that you need to transition?

Will staying another year allow you to better prepare or will it hurt you?

Do you still enjoy being in? Or put another way, do you have that "feeling" that it is just time to go?

If you have to wait till the second look, are you willing to stay the required time actually pin on and have the required TIG to retire?

Finally, don't rule things out. Life can change a lot in a year, so your thoughts and feelings today, could be completely different next year because your life and situation has changed.

Response by CW2 Eric Scott made Mar 5 at 2015 2:27 PM

CW2 Eric Scott — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 14:27:53 -0500

First you go home and take your pants off and watch the History Channel.

Then you go back and look at why you got passed over and if you can change it next time.

If yes > do it

If no > bye

Response by CPO Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 5 at 2015 4:55 PM

CPO Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 16:55:18 -0500

I have found that those that try and plan every moment of their personal lives have the greatest difficulty in transition.
I was told, follow your heart, it never lies. Do what you love, you will never work another day in your life. There are a million of the expressions that all say the same thing.
The people that take courses in learning and following a path of interest is exciting, personal growth is difficult at best the tighter the constraints one places on themselves.
How do you define success? I say that in all honesty, in the end, none of us get to take anything more out of this that we came with. All that remains is the memory of the lives we have touched. The personal character we displayed and the love we shared.
Being very honest, I never knew how much and how powerful the feeling of freedom was until I became disabled, then with all that I have learned, starting over allowed me to understand the answers to the main question.....
How do you define success?

Response by PO1 Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 5 at 2015 5:19 PM

PO1 Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 17:19:37 -0500

There are so many different factors to this question. Is there was a job waiting for me with twice the pay and all the benefits? Do I love the job that I am doing? Will I love my new job? Is the place I end up (location wise) where I want or where I have to be? Is my retirement plan already solid and just waiting for the day I hang up my uniform for the last time? Everyone has different reasons for doing this job, what is good for one may not be for another. I love my job but when I am ready to move on it will be because I am finally ready for the next chapter in my life. Just my thoughts though.

Response by Sgt Jay Jones made Mar 5 at 2015 6:13 PM

Sgt Jay Jones — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 18:13:05 -0500

1974, I was caught up in the draw down from Vietnam. My MOS 3421 (Disbursing) had a glut of Sergeants. I had three years in grade and was just passed over for the second time. I only had five years in and felt my career was over, so yes, I elected to get out. In retrospect, I would have eventually made Staff Sergeant and probably GySgt or higher in the next 15 years.

Response by PO2 David Hagwood made Mar 5 at 2015 8:15 PM

PO2 David Hagwood — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 20:15:42 -0500

I can't tell a person what they should do in a survey. If you want to stay in and hope to be promoted, then give it a chance. If you don't think it's worth your time to wait and see if you'll eventually make it, get out. It is as simple as that. I have about maybe 8 more looks before I would be forced to throw in the towel; and I'm going to use every bit of that time because I want it. One could only hope it doesn't take that long, though. I will find out in a couple of months if I made it this time.

Response by MAJ Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 5 at 2015 9:41 PM

MAJ Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 21:41:14 -0500

CW2 I would wait it out. I had the same issue waiting for CPT. I was worried I would get passed over because the year I got looked at only 49% of 1LT got picked up in AMEDD, hardest board in 20 years. I have 20 years this year however I am going to make the Army say no to me and in the mean time I am getting my Master's degree and will begin working on my Doctorate with the financial help of Uncle Sam. Hang in there it is a tuff time to be in, worse then the cut backs in the 90s but things will turn around again. I looked deep into the reason I became a soldier and then had to look at myself and ask am I better for being in or should I get out? I am a Nurse so getting work for me will be easy but I love the Army way of life.

Response by CW3 Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 5 at 2015 9:46 PM

CW3 Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 21:46:59 -0500

As a fresh warrant only about mid way through flight school, I don't know if it's just ignorance on my part or what, so if you could kindly educate me. I'm seeing the logic in the "first look...f- it thought process. Why wouldn't you see it out until the second look? I understand if you're done, you're done, but if that's dependent on whether or not you get promoted, why call it find before the possibility is exhausted? I'll be in the same boat when it's time for me to get looked at for CW3 years from now. I'll have 20yrs in so it's not exactly a tragedy if I don't get picked up. I joined when I was 17 so I'll be pretty young compared to average. Plenty of time for a whole other career. I think Lt Col Jim Coe had the best advice for you though, but honestly I really am confused as to why the first look is your potentially your decision point. Best of luck to you. From everything I've seen on the enlisted side, most of that surrounded by warrants, large number pickups rarely come alone anyway. You seem like a stand up guy anyway, I doubt you have much to worry about.

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Mar 5 at 2015 10:42 PM

CPT Jack Durish — Thu, 05 Mar 2015 22:42:04 -0500

My uncle was a pilot/lieutenant in the Army Air Corps prior to WWII and spoke of watching the obituaries to see the ranks of those who had died. Attrition by death in those times seems to have been the only way to open up opportunities for advancement.

When war broke out in Europe, he volunteered to fly photo recon over German and shipped out to England as soon as he could. Ultimately, he retired as a colonel.

It seems that we may be entering a similar period as we pretend to be at peace.

How long will it last? At least another two years would be my guess, then there should be lots of opportunity for advancement.

Can you hold out that long?

Response by MSG Brad Sand made May 22 at 2015 11:02 AM

MSG Brad Sand — Fri, 22 May 2015 11:02:07 -0400

Actually, do what is right for you and your family. The Reserves is going to do what they do.

Should I stay of should I go? If you stay there will be trouble, if you go there will be trouble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ

The Clash - Should I Stay Or Should I Go

This is the song "Should I Stay Or Should I Go" from The Clash with the lyrics :)

Response by LTC Paul Labrador made May 22 at 2015 11:04 AM

LTC Paul Labrador — Fri, 22 May 2015 11:04:45 -0400

Since you already qualify for retirement, you are in a win/win situation. Getting passed over once is not a career death sentence. Sometimes a certain year group is overstrength and they promote less people from it. If you like being in the Army, then stay, regardless of the outcome of this board. If you don't, retire.

Response by Maj Chris Nelson made May 22 at 2015 1:14 PM

Maj Chris Nelson — Fri, 22 May 2015 13:14:05 -0400

I was in sort of a similar predicament, but not sitting quite so pretty. I was up for my "in the zone" major's board, still having a bunch of years before I could retire. I was passed over. in nurse corps (for the air force), 90% or more of the selects are in the primary zone. My second look (1 above the zone) was held 8 months later (partial year OPR and all) Only difference between in zone and above zone was the 1 class taken to complete my Master's degree and also took my nursing Certification exam and passed. STILL got passed up on 2nd look. Nurse Corps at that time needed bodies and put me on conditional continuation. Year 3, I was 1 of 4 nurses to be picked up OVER the zone...out of 85 total selects.... My biggest relief is that I am not guaranteed to be able to hit my 20 and retire. the fact that you are at/above 20 gives you the magic ticket. NOW it is all about YOU. What do YOU want. NOBODY can decide that but you!! Good luck and enjoy the ride!

Response by CW4 Private RallyPoint Member made May 27 at 2015 7:37 AM

CW4 Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 27 May 2015 07:37:37 -0400

85% selection rate, I like those odds. For my CW3 selection board (active Duty) 915A's got selected at 54% and there were a lot of good guys that got passed over. If it were me, I would stay for the 2nd look and ensure that I get as much eyes as possible on my ORB, IPERMS and OER's to ensure that I had a game plan going forward for the 2nd look. If you truly love your job, you owe it to yourself to give it one more go if you don't get selected this year. Good luck.

Response by LTC John Griscom made Dec 1 at 2018 8:11 AM

LTC John Griscom — Sat, 01 Dec 2018 08:11:16 -0500

Staying for a second adds to your retirement and gives you a income in the meantime.