Imagine what happens to North Korea leadership after (Wall comes down), Peace, or War?

SSgt GG-15 RET Jim Lint — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 12:42:49 -0500

I am writing an article and could leverage RP brain power. I have some paragraphs talking about
1. East German General Secretary Erich Honecher resigned in October 1989. Part of the reason was the unrest in East Germany and he had kidney cancer.
2. Spymaster of East Germany
Markus Wolf, was the communist East Germany’s long-serving spymaster who planted over 4,000 agents in the west, mostly in West Germany from 1951 to 1986. In 1990 he fled to Moscow but returned to the reunified Germany to stand trial after being refused asylum in Austria.
3. Hitler committed suicide and the Nuremberg Trials
4. . It was discovered that the Soviets were grabbing scientist for their future use. U.S. government brought 88 Nazi scientists captured during the fall of the Nazi Germany back to America. Only this time, according to History.com, they were working for the U.S. under a project known as “Operation Paperclip.”
5 ... What do you think will happen to North Korea Kim, Jong Un, Military Leaders, and Intell Leaders. Would US pull some to USA? nK Cyber troops?

Response by LTC Jeff Shearer made Mar 10 at 2018 1:07 PM

LTC Jeff Shearer — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 13:07:10 -0500

Jim I think is very possible, highly probable to take some of their SME's under our wing, with great supervision of course. Based on previous events in our history if we were able we would select a handful of the right players from the right positions. This could be very useful then again we may find he is just a fat bully who's only need is to be face kicked until not breathing. Based on history I would certainly not be surprised some people would be eased over for intelligence value, just my humble opinion.

Response by Sgt Wayne Wood made Mar 10 at 2018 1:57 PM

Sgt Wayne Wood — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 13:57:30 -0500

1) China steps in for stability & saves them

2) there is a general uprising that makes the French Terror after the revolution look like a kiddies’ squabble. Then back to option #1

In short, i see no option where China doesn’t gain a province or ‘autonomous zone’

Response by COL Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 10 at 2018 3:04 PM

COL Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 15:04:18 -0500

If there is war and a leadership vacuum is created: First, their military leaders have a lot of tin and ribbon but not much experience in combat. No gain there. As far a cyber guys most of the good ones will be taken by China. The really good ones will go to China and the mid level will go to S. Korea. Of course there would be few exceptions. Not much left to take from military stand point. If it comes to peaceful exchange: expect Kim to strike a deal where he gets to be king (maybe an arrangement like U.K.) the country’s figure head with no actual political power but a great amount of influence. In a case like that you can expect them to keep their military and cyber forces in tact. Initially you will have the unfaithful run to other countries but most will take their chances in the political arena. That would actually be the best possible outcome. China and Russia might have some issues because they would have a democracy on their border that might be swayed towards the USA. They both have been supporting NK to ensure the buffer is maintained. If anybody can make a deal with Kim it’s probably Trump. Kim might like to be King for life. The biggest winners will be the businesses that strike deals with NK. All that land and cheap labor! China will jump at the possibility of more farm land to feed all those millions of Chinese. Cheaper than buying land in Africa.

Response by SPC Erich Guenther made Mar 10 at 2018 3:15 PM

SPC Erich Guenther — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 15:15:27 -0500

Minor correction here. Erich Honecker was forced to resign after trying to engineer a intervention by the USSR to curb unrest in his country in which he also would have performed another purge of the East Germany communist party, additionally he gave orders to the East German border guards to open fire into the crowds gathering at the Wall. Luckily for all of us there were one or two East Germans that still had a conscience that made a move to remove him before a real calamity happened (nobody cared about his illness and most East Germans wanted to see him dead). Honecker came to power in the same way, running off to the Russians and convincing them to intervene to replace Walter Ulbrict. The man was a cold blooded murderer, directly responsible for the shoot to kill orders of the East German border guards against escapees. Honecker was the product of the sometimes cruel French occupation of the Saarland (post WWI) under which his Father turned to Communism and took him along at the age of 10. After imprisonment by German authorities for traveling under fake documents. This next part is shady: Honecker is thought to have struck a deal with the Nazi's to spare his life, he would cooperate with them while in jail and turn in as many of his fellow Communists as he could identify in an attempt to survive the Nazis (this part of his imprisonment was hard to prove until the Stasi files became public because he covered it up....nobody knows how accurate those records are I do not think....so even that flimsey proof is open to question). However, it is a mystery how a die hard Communist survived so well kept and fed during the Nazi regime, even being transferred to a womens prison for good behavior. So really the guy didn't appear to believe in any political movement he just wanted unlimited power. I think it's a big reason Honecker fled to Russia as he was dying. He was a coward with a lot of skeletons in his closet and scores of people across all political spectrums wanted to see him dead.

Response by SPC Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 10 at 2018 3:22 PM

SPC Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 15:22:40 -0500

China will step in to save North Korea they don't want thousands of NK fleeing to their borders. Also the Chinese don't partake in nation-building.

Response by MAJ Alvin B. made Mar 10 at 2018 3:57 PM

MAJ Alvin B. — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 15:57:34 -0500

Perhaps. Yes, the US have done so in the past. However, in general, there was a moral element to the selection process. If useful; what have they done in the past, can they be trusted now, where do their loyalties and ideology rest? The isolation ok the DPRK poses unique challenges. However, I suspect the US will be interested, if the opportunities exist.

A key overall difference is the collapse of the nation in each of the previous cases. North Korea may have issues; however, it is still a viable national entity.

Response by MSgt Alvin A. made Mar 10 at 2018 4:00 PM

MSgt Alvin A. — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 16:00:09 -0500

This is a brutal Regime. They are using political prisoners as test subjects for biological weapons. It is very hard intellectually to argue that they should be given a pass just because the argument is, "If we don't give them a pass, no peace is possible!" Sometimes a War is required on Morality alone.

Response by Maj John Bell made Mar 10 at 2018 4:12 PM

Maj John Bell — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 16:12:05 -0500

Highly unlikely, but I think the only way Kim Jong In steps down voluntarily is after the guarantee of asylum and a dream life in "captive" exile for him and his family. I doubt that will happen, and I doubt that China will let it happen.

If Kim Jong UN isn't the Chinese "crazy attack dog" they will engineer his replacement with a more progressive someone else who can and will follow orders, but will remain a bit "totally nuts." when it comes to the US and its allies. The NKDP is done if ever a significant minority of their population gets to see South Korea and go home to tell the truth.

Response by SGM Bill Frazer made Mar 10 at 2018 5:17 PM

SGM Bill Frazer — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 17:17:25 -0500

NK situation is much different- DRG did not "hero-worship" any of the leaders, nor was a cult built by the leadership. DRG was separated for roughly 40 years, yet had some contact but visiting family occasionally, NK has hated us for 60 years, and there are virtually know family visits to let the common folks see the NK lies. The NVKD and it's Russian counter- part might arrest you, send you to a work camp, but there was a chance to get released. NK if they don't kill you 1st, will work you too death in a camp. Forget any release hope. If Fat Boy dies, he was rigged things so his sister take over, might be Civil War, but don't think they would come across the DMZ, till after their ducks where in a row.

Response by LTC Jason Mackay made Mar 10 at 2018 6:09 PM

LTC Jason Mackay — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 18:09:50 -0500

So reading into the topic here, how the "wall" comes down is as important as the answer to this question. I believe here are the scenarios:

- the accidental discharge: through a dangerous dance of miscalculation a conventional, nuclear, or hybrid conflict goes hot. The exchange will be massive and destructive particularly for Seoul and therefore any chance of reparation that includes the regime surviving will be summarily fed into the cross cut shredder. The regime and in particular the Kim inner circle will be marked and hunted like animals. The outer circle of generals and cronies will cut deals and rat to save themselves from a firing squad or the claws of the feral mobs. The Juche blindness of the populous will remain long enough for the Kim inner circle to flee to China or Russia where they will evade the free world. We can assume that the regime's dalliances into bitcoin and financial software manipulation has provided them a conduit to build a post DPRK nest egg which will buy them into protection in Russia, China, or some other sympathetic, cash strapped no-go place. We saw this in Iraq with Hussein's inner circle....he and his boys just didn't skate early enough over the border to Syria.

- hunger outpaces fear: if the population experiences a series of harsh winters, droughts, crop failures, and the associated famine....and if the west goes hard line with aid, people's fear of being shot by their government will be overwhelmed by their fear of starving to death. Different feral mobs will have different agendas. Some will focus on pure survival. Some will focus on exploiting the weak and maximizing their position...nK has organized crime too. Some will focus on payback. If we are lucky, there will be a maligned nK military commander still controlling troops that will cut off escape and force the Kim circle to flee, kind of like Gaddafi. Then there will be the grainy footage of Kim and crew hanging from light poles or evicerated by AA weapons or ceremonially squashed by T62s. The lower level apparatus will be taken care of by random mob violence. The apparatus figures in the border areas will jump over the border and disappear.

- wasted money in cosmolene: eventually, the military junta combining their understanding of the outside world and realizing their military equipment and quality of troops will continue to degrade. Conceivably, a general or five will forge a durable alliance, trigger a limited conflict before Lil Kim can rally loyal troops. The junta would likely purge the Kim's 9mm at a time in one fell swoop. No cousins. No uncles. No aunts. No half siblings. Done. The junta would then sue for peace, perhaps installing a western friendly regime that ensures their toe hold and their continued cushy existence.

- weak neighbor: although unlikely, some political, social, economic, or natural disaster befalls the South. The perception of weakness could lead to an opportunity to execute a limited seizure of South Korea, perhaps as far south as the Han River to shift the negotiating balance with the west, take more arable land, and exploit people and resources that are between the DMZ and the Han. Seoul would be in the forward line of advance. The hope would be to seize it intact, perhaps leaving it as a divided city like Berlin. This would be a counter balance to the risk of a counter offensive out of a aversion to the human tragedy of ejecting the nK invaders.

- transition crisis: What if Lil Kim dies due to diabetic shock, gout, flu or some other health crisis? Would the population and apparatus accept Kim's sister? Maybe the junta sees this as their chance. Maybe the Juche wears off and the mob rises. So who comes out on top, will determine who will be left. Anyone's guess.

As for the exploitation of regime Human Resources, that isn't a function of leadership. The victors could give a rip less about them. Intelligence will exploit them and discard them by the most expeditious means available. Their value decreases exponentially after the regime falls. As for the science, engineering, and technology caste, some will flee and go to the highest bidder with the most attractive guilded cage. Some will get snatched up by forces as battlespace environment allows. We have to assume a swath end up in China and Russia.

The reactions and precursor actions of China and Russia will spin all this and I can only assume that if the regime falters, China will install a puppet strongman to retain their strategic buffer.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 10 at 2018 6:37 PM

LTC Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 18:37:34 -0500

Thank you, Jim, for summarizing were these men went and left after the wall went down.

Response by LT Brad McInnis made Mar 10 at 2018 8:33 PM

LT Brad McInnis — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 20:33:34 -0500

1) I don't think there will be a power grab/drain of tech people (like post WWII Germany). From what I understand, most of the technology people are foreigners anyway (mainly Russian and Chinese) and they will just go home.
2) The leadership is probably pretty nervous what will happen to them afterwords, when the average people find out why they have been living in such horrible conditions. I don't force a massive uprising, as the people are physically weak, while the military is better fed. Granted, that pre-supposes that the military won't side with he people, in which case the leadership should be really worried.
3) SOKO and China are both wondering how they are going to fix the massive humanitarian crisis that will emerge when people are allowed in to the country. Food, medicines, etc., are going to be a massive undertaking. Then the overall idea of what the country will do economically afterwords.... what economic unions will accept them, what banking systems will let them in, heck what are they going to produce (not like they are huge farmers or industrialists).

I will be honest that NOKO was never really covered in any of my Far East political science courses.

Response by SSG Edward Tilton made Mar 10 at 2018 9:29 PM

SSG Edward Tilton — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 21:29:50 -0500

unlike the East Germans, North Korea has almost 1,000,000 man military . I have no idea which way this will go. I keep thinking back to Hungary in 1956. The Police called in the Army to help disburse protesters. The Army turned on them.

Response by SSG Warren Swan made Mar 10 at 2018 11:50 PM

SSG Warren Swan — Sat, 10 Mar 2018 23:50:31 -0500

Speaking for my time in Korea, the KATUSA's we had wanted unification with the north. They saw them as brothers, sisters, and family divided over issues long dead. That was the youth in 99-2000 in Area 2. Those youth are now older like me, and I'm sure some are in positions of power and influence. More than likely still see it that way. If they spread their sphere of influence, who knows how many more feel like that?
Germany had issues when they became unified, but overall have moved on from them. Not sure how long it'll take before the mental scars match the physical ones, but they've made great progress. Koreans have more of a familial feel to themselves than many in the west, so I'd give them the ability to "heal" quicker than Germany did. SK also has a better and more robust economy than Germany did at their time, so again maybe the burdens would be lessened. A possible hiccup would be those who are "rich" in the north finding out they're now "poor" or middle class in the south. Social economic status has a weird way of making wars happen for no good reason. You also have the military who are the "class of power", and enjoy freedoms they would never have in the south. I seriously doubt they would be welcome with open arms expecting the same life they enjoyed in the north, in the south.
Unification would also make major issues with the US presence there. We're "welcome" but not really "welcome" based on my year there and multiple TDY's afterwards in Area 2. I'm assuming anyone who was in Seoul remembers the "Friday lunchtime Protests" that were a weekly thing. Unification would take that "welcome" mat and make it really hard to stay as things are now. We technically wouldn't be required being the "war" is officially over, the country is now one, and the threat of Chinese influence would be stronger, but not strong enough to justify the presence we have now at the Hump. When the Cold War ended, there was no major need for the presence we had in Germany. Unification would make the same thing happen in Korea, and we aren't exactly "welcome" in the PI either, so where are the 30k troops going to be based at now? Our presence in Japan would even be questioned by their local governments more so, and the justifications would be even harder for pro-US legislators and key US negotiator's to make the case on.

China and Russia would not want unification to happen. It would ruin their influence in the region (no matter what they say or show publicly), and would make issues for them too with refugees flooding China's borders, some of which we'd want to "Stand trial" in "pubic courts" in places that don't exist. Kinda hard to track a trial in Wakanna when Wakanna only exists in a movie. The Korean "War" or conflict was never declared over. If unification became a reality, we'd soon find ourselves back there and stretched thinner and strained harder than ever before. The US doesn't command the respect it did 70yrs ago, not even 20yrs ago. We have more countries against us, some we even call "allies", than we really have that are our allies. The UN won't be able to save us from the asskicking we're about to take if unification were to happen, and I'm not sure if they'd want to with some of the actions we've taken over the last 18yrs. I did not say we'd loose in battle (we NEVER loose in battle), but that bloody nose or black eye we normally take would be some seriously broken bones and amputated political limbs.

The US has a better chance at "unification" with 50 states that have been "unified" since 1776....or would it be 1865?

Response by GySgt Charles O'Connell made Mar 11 at 2018 3:30 PM

GySgt Charles O'Connell — Sun, 11 Mar 2018 15:30:58 -0400

Kim, and his regime, will not go quietly. They maintain control through oppression, any N. Korean "Glastnost" will be the beginning of the end for them and they're smart enough to know it. Will China be their savior? No, China craves stability, N. Korea is unstable. Russia? There is no plus for Russian involvement, nor are they prepared to go head to head with China. As far as Kim and the military leadership, what the U.S. would do with them following their downfall? My view we wouldn't do anything with them, as they have nothing to offer. Turning some of their "Cyber" troops, would be a smart Intel move, but realistically, they are not as advanced as some would think, purposeful, but not advance.

Response by CMDCM Richard Moon made Mar 11 at 2018 4:50 PM

CMDCM Richard Moon — Sun, 11 Mar 2018 16:50:47 -0400

North Korea is no way a comparison to East Germany. 1st, there is no known mass claomring for reunification. 2nd, the Kim family is worshiped as near deity as you can be, nothing like that existed in East Germany. 3rd, while the entire Eastern Bloc was falling apart, nothing like that is happening in China or Russia today. I don't see this as a matter for Russia to deal with as much as it is a Chinese matter. The Soviet Union pretty much left North Korea to the PRC long ago and it became a Chinese client state. More so today than ever. If China were to actually "invade" to stabilize (because violence will occur if Kim were to actually normalize things), it's going to be the object of a civil war which it isn't equipped or trained to fight. These are Koreans, not Chinese and they would deeply resent their presence. Better yet would be to provide assistance, and let the South absorb the North. It will take generations for the Korean peninsula to recover from the vast disparities that exist now (far worse than the merger between West and East Germany) and represents no threat to China due to the enormous costs of reunification. I think the Chinese however would act stupidly and try a move south - that could provoke a war.

Response by PV2 Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 11 at 2018 4:55 PM

PV2 Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 11 Mar 2018 16:55:14 -0400

In the event of warfare and the likely war crimes to follow, much of the north korean political and military leadership would be held to blame. Those that aren't as connected but still have some pull will try to embed themselves into the new politcal scene.

As for north korean experts in cyber and nuclear I don't it would be something they'd be in the same priority as the German researchers. It isn't that US cyber command doesn't understand computer science and it's a new field of physics. The US military doesn't put as much investment into cyber warfare amd has its hands tied on some issues. The issue we had when it came to securing data and scientists was nuclear engineering was still in its relative infancy. (no pun intended) Major powers were about on par with each other when it came to progress in WMDs and needed anything new they could access. Cyber, it's known America's enemies just put more resources into their programs and systems

Response by SGT Kyle Bickley made Apr 23 at 2018 10:47 AM

SGT Kyle Bickley — Mon, 23 Apr 2018 10:47:21 -0400

Civil War. Kim won't give up leadership. He and many others need to stand trial at the Hague! Then short end of a rope! The guy is a butcher! What they are doing to their own people is inexcusable!

Response by LT Mike Folker made Apr 25 at 2018 1:34 PM

LT Mike Folker — Wed, 25 Apr 2018 13:34:32 -0400

I am absolutely flabbergasted that no one appears to have mentioned the Pueblo. I'd wager that there should be no rapprochement w/ N.K. until it voluntarily returns the Pueblo.

Likely the only admin. official even aware of it is SECDEF, & he wouldn't care to have to explain it to his Pres., who is notoriously obdurate about any idea that's not his.

Response by LT Mike Folker made Apr 25 at 2018 7:59 PM

LT Mike Folker — Wed, 25 Apr 2018 19:59:36 -0400

I was in W. Germany in 1974 when Chancellor Willy Brandt's secy., Guenter Guillaume, a Wolf spy, was exposed. Brandt resigned as Chancellor, an unintended consequence of the caper, since Brandt was a left-leaning politician eager for rapprochement w/ the East & USSR.

Response by COL Ralph Bryan Hanes made Apr 27 at 2018 9:36 AM

COL Ralph Bryan Hanes — Fri, 27 Apr 2018 09:36:01 -0400

Japan will be very concerned as both Korea's have hard feelings left over from WWII. Korea says denuclearized peninsula, but do they mean it? The combined armies, green on experience, but large in size with S. Korea's western technologies and N.Korea's missiles there is an instant player on the power scene. They then play Russia, China and the USA against each other. Japan is forced to go nuclear and beef up their HDF even more. China becomes either the big winner or loser in the transaction. We can think what we like of the dynamic duo of Trump and Kim, but if things continue in their present course, the world will never be the same. The idea of the Korean War finally being technically over is pretty impressive. Not haveing all the US forces tied down there is a mixed blessing as it is convenient to have an appreciable force next door to China. This gets more interesting every day.

Response by SSG Shawn Mcfadden made May 4 at 2018 6:28 AM

SSG Shawn Mcfadden — Fri, 04 May 2018 06:28:42 -0400

First off, If anyone is expecting the situation dealing with North/South Korea to have an ending similar to East/West Germany, you are gravely mistaken. Assuming the Korean war formally comes to an end, AND IF the North gets rid of their Nuclear weapons IF there is any talk of re-unification, the one question that HAS to be ASKED is HOW WILL THE COUNTRY BE GOVERNED? The SOUTH will NOT become communist, and China will not tolerate a democracy that close to them. That being said, If it came down to it, China would have a say so as to what happens to the NK leadership.