Iran nuclear deal: Who wins, who loses? What business would do a deal that has no win and the other side threatens them at every turn?

2015-09-12T10:10:42-04:00

The Iran Nuclear Deal is the center of a split in the political arena, yet not many people have read the proposal or truly understand it. One interesting aspect is there is no wording or demands on releasing any American hostages. In a snap shot here is what I ran get and what we get. I wonder who really believes:

Iran “kill all Americans and destroy Israel” will keep its word
This is in the best interests of the world.
In the wake of this is the news of a dedication to a plaque at the former embassy. The plaque unveiled http://theiranproject.com/blog/2015/09/02/iranian-students-unveil-anti-us-plaque-at-former-embassy/ Wednesday by the Basij paramilitary forces carries a list of condemnations of America uttered by the Islamic republic’s late founder, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. During the gathering, the students set fire to U.S., British and Israeli flags.

What we get[1]

- Iran reduces by about half the number of centrifuges actively enriching uranium

- Iran reduces its stockpile of enriched uranium from about five tons to 300 kilograms

- Iran repurposes its heavy water reactor in Arak so it does not produce plutonium

- An unspecified increase in inspections by the IAEA

What Iran gets:

Sanctions relief:

- Almost every type of U.S., EU, and UN sanctions lifted

- Repeal of six UN Security Council resolutions declaring the Iranian nuclear program illegal

- Top IRGC and Quds Force terrorists removed from the sanctions list, including Qassem Suleimani, leader of Iran’s campaign against U.S. soldiers in Iraq, and Ahmad Vahidi, mastermind of the 1994 Jewish community center bombing in Argentina that killed 85 people

- The removal from the sanctions list of approximately 800 people and legal entities, including 23 out of 24 Iranian banks

- $100 to $150 billion to be unfrozen and given to Iran with no restrictions on its use to purchase arms and fund terrorism, including funding for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Assad regime in Syria

Nuclear program:

- Iran keeps every one of its nuclear centrifuges

- Iran keeps its entire physical nuclear infrastructure, including the enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz and the nuclear reactor at Bushehr

- Iran permitted to continue research and development on all of its advanced centrifuge designs, reducing nuclear breakout time at the end of the deal to weeks

- Iran permitted to transition its allowed enrichment of uranium from older centrifuge designs to advanced designs

- No “anywhere, anytime” inspections. Iran can delay inspection of any site for at least 24 days

- No requirement that Iran fully disclose past nuclear weapons research and development (known as the PMD issue)

- The P5+1 western powers pledge to collaborate with Iran on nuclear technology

- Restrictions on enrichment – part of the “sunset” of the deal – are lifted after eight years

- If Iran is thought to have violated the deal, in order to “snap back” sanctions a dispute resolution process must be undertaken that can last two and a half months, after which the matter can be referred to the UN Security Council. At the UNSC, the re-imposition of sanctions can be vetoed by Russia, which stands to earn billions of dollars from arms sales to a non-sanctioned Iran.

[1] Noah Pollack http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/iran-deal-explained_991363.html

The Iran Deal, Explained

To cut through the rhetoric surrounding the Iran deal, and to better understand what the two sides conceded and gained, I’ve compiled a balance sheet on the Iran deal. It’s simple and non-technical; a basic list comparing what the U.S. gets versus what Iran gets. The reader is free to make up his own mind about the merits of the deal and the extent to which it advances U.S. interests and U.S. security, and that of our allies.

Response by LTC Stephen F. made Sep 12 at 2015 10:33 AM

2015-09-12T10:33:28-04:00

The people of Iran and Israel will probably be the quickest losers MSG David Chappell.
We had the opportunity to pressure the leadership of Iran and support the freedom movement in Iran; but we didn't.
We had the opportunity to demonstrate robust leadership similar to when the US stood up to the Soviet Union in the 1980's but we didn't.
Iran is focused primarily against the destruction of Israel including every man woman and child. Since they still refer to us as the Great Satan we are high on their enemy list.

Response by Capt Seid Waddell made Sep 12 at 2015 12:50 PM

2015-09-12T12:50:39-04:00

Iran wins, the world loses. They get everything they want and we get promises from a country known to lie and break every deal it makes while continuing to work to destroy Israel and the U.S.

Neville Chamberlain's illusions were not as bad as Obama's, nor will they have turned out to be as destructive to the world.

It staggers the imagination to understand how someone could be as naïve as our POTUS and the Senators that enabled this deal to go through against the wishes of the vast majority of the population.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 12 at 2015 6:36 PM

2015-09-12T18:36:43-04:00

This website does a much better (and less partisan) job explaining the Iran Nuclear Deal. http://www.rt.com/news/246477-iran-nuclear-deal-explained/

This one does as well:
http://www.wsj.com/video/the-iran-nuclear-deal-explained/BCDEC52C-E9F0-431C-A645-B6E6F00F6F50.html

as does this one:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33524147

There is nothing in this deal that prevents us from reimposing sanctions or taking military action, all were doing is saying we will stop beating you with the sanctions stick (for now) if you take these actions which will prevent you from building a Nuclear weapon during the next 10-15 years. This seems like a really good idea, given that many say they are currently within one year of building a Nuclear weapon.

Explained: 10 short answers to 5 key points on Iran nuclear deal

After 18 months of negotiating, Iran has come to a preliminary agreement with China, Russia, France, UK, US and Germany (P5+1) on Tehran’s nuclear program. But what is Iran giving up to seal the deal and how can it benefit in the long run?

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 12 at 2015 8:50 PM

2015-09-12T20:50:12-04:00

Why I think the Iranian nuclear deal is not good.
1. As part of the agreement, the United States and other countries will lift economic sanctions against Iran on "Implementation Day" in 2016, allowing Iran access to billions of dollars. That effectively amounts to a $150 billion check, referring to the amount of Iran’s assets currently frozen in foreign banks.
This money could eventually be funneled to terrorist organizations. Iran, according to the U.S. government, is the world's most active sponsor of state terrorism. In particular, Iran supports Hezbollah, the Shiite guerrilla group in Lebanon, and supports two Palestinian anti-Israeli groups in the occupied territories.

2. Even if the United States were to reject the deal before implementation, the sanctions won’t work in the same way. Both Russia and China have been ignoring some of the U.S. and European sanctions already. Russian leaders have said that if the deal falls through, they’ll only recognize U.N. sanctions against Iran, but not the U.S. or European ones.

3. If Iran slips up, the sanctions can come back, though not without problems. "The Iran deal does provide a mechanism for re-establishing the legal basis for international sanctions, even over and against the objections of other veto-players in the United Nations — but only the legal basis and only at great cost," According to Duke University political scientist Peter Feaver.

4. ‘Anywhere, anytime’ inspections were never really a goal. But that was not the administration’s goal, experts said. The White House typically characterizes the inspection as "very intrusive" — strong by historical standards and enough to block Iran’s path to a bomb.
"No sovereign state would agree to such an arrangement; no such access is necessary to verify compliance; and any such arrangement would waste the inspectors' resources," Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association

5. On the issue of the embargo on intercontinental ballistic missile technology (ICBM) and conventional weapons to Iran, the agreement is set to remove those restrictions in five years for conventional weapons and eight years for ICBM tech.
This provision was a last minute addition to the deal at the insistence of the Iranians with the help of the Russians, who are looking for a new customer for their weapons. When President Obama agreed to the lifting of that embargo as part of the overall deal, a deal Congress can not alter in any way, he directly contradicted the express advice of General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.