Is 450k the bottom? Some more details about the next 40k cut to our Army.

2015-07-12T02:00:02-04:00

The Army was at around 482k before 911 (down from around 800k at the end of the cold war), and then we grew to nearly 590k to support the wars. The Army began downsizing in 2010, and now are at 490k. DOD just announced another 40k reduction, bringing the Army to 450k, which is smallest it has been since WWII. The new CJCS said our biggest threats are Russia, China, North Korea (Traditional Conventional Big Land Army Threats), then ISIS... Hmmm... Big Land Armies... and we are downsizing ours...

The installation where I now live and work (Fort Leonard, MO, Maneuver Support Center of Excellence) - that drives much, if not all, of the economy here - lost 774 military spaces. That is good, considering the potential cut was 5400.

Also, remember, this does not include the requisite civilian positions that support our Soldiers. When the military downsizes, so too does the civilian and contractor workforce.

Interesting times.

Next up is BRAC.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/07/09/us-army-details-plans-to-cut-40000-soldiers-across-bases.html

US Army Details Plans to Cut 40,000 Soldiers Across Bases Worldwide

The downsizing will impact most installations, with Fort Benning in Georgia and Fort Richardson in Alaska being hit hardest.

Response by CW4 Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 12 at 2015 2:29 AM

2015-07-12T02:29:42-04:00

No Sir, looks like we are headed for 420 or even 400. The only way that I don't see these numbers dropping this low is if we get engaged in another entirely different conflict or war.

Response by COL Mikel J. Burroughs made Jul 12 at 2015 10:02 AM

2015-07-12T10:02:43-04:00

COL Charles Williams I believe we are going to lose a lot of valuable combat experience and trained individuals that would have made a difference in the future (just my 2 cents). I believe that these numbers will have to be brought back up again the future (that is my gut feeling). I hope that I'm wrong, but gut tells me that this world will not sit back and become a peaceful place overnight. As we continue to move back into our shell, the terrorist will continue to gain background that we worked so hard to gain over the last 14 years. That is already evident. I'm not a warmonger, but I'm big fan of taking the "big hurt" to the enemy in their backyard and keeping our yard very safe. I see this a lot of these cuts as political moves to balance the budget and decrease government spending. In my opinion it has always been the easiest way for the government to get back down to reasonable levels of spending. I think the 2nd and 3rd order affects are increased unemployment for military service members with great skills, same for the civilian positions that go away and jobs, decreased revenue for cities that support the bases where the cuts are going to take place, lost revenue in defense contracting for those businesses that thrive off the increased war efforts (more lost jobs and communities affected), and the list goes on. Why don't we work on fixing government spending on entitlement programs like we cut the defense spending and other useless spending through supplements to legislation? Hope I didn’t rattle on too long!

Response by COL Vincent Stoneking made Jul 12 at 2015 12:16 PM

2015-07-12T12:16:06-04:00

Barring another war, I expect to see an active end strength of close to 300,000 within the next 10 years. Many will tell me that this is impossible, because those numbers are just too low. True, but irrelevant. Politicians legislate impossible things all the time. The mantra will be "technology makes ground forces obsolete." Again.

In the "best" case outcome, the active Army will be split between a highly deployable array of QRF-type organizations, with little forward basing but a lot of expeditionary-type deployments and an institutional training/cadre force with the goal of being able to quickly fill those needed billets when the SHTF. In this best of all possible bad worlds, there would be a very robust reserve force with multiple tiers of readiness, all the way from Reserve units that drill twice a month to guys who go to basic training, and then straight into the IRR with a monthly stipend.

For all those that say that the above cannot happen, probably not. But it would be better than what I think will happen....