Is North Korea a credible threat or are they blowing smoke?

PFC Alexander Oliveira — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:27:04 -0500

The DPRK has threatened once again to attack its enemies with nukes and other false promises of terror, as they do every time soldiers in south korea perform their annual training exercises like the ones I participated in. when I was there nobody took the threats seriously because we knew they were full of it. what is your opinion on the subject? should we as a country be scared?

Response by PO3 Steven Sherrill made Mar 9 at 2016 12:27 PM

PO3 Steven Sherrill — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:27:55 -0500

PFC Alexander Oliveira It is an old song. We do an exercise, they make a threat. We end the exercise, they don't do anything. So I will go with blowing smoke.

Response by SN Greg Wright made Mar 9 at 2016 12:28 PM

SN Greg Wright — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:28:31 -0500

They're blowing smoke. They don't have the capability to deliver their tiny-assed nukes any further than an airplane could take it. If they ever did light off, Seoul would be toast, but then NK would cease to exist, and you can bet that Fat Boy Leader knows it. He's not spouting his rhetoric for the rest of the world, he's spouting it for his people.

Response by SPC Andrew Griffin made Mar 9 at 2016 12:29 PM

SPC Andrew Griffin — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:29:36 -0500

No THREAT should be treated IDLE! We never thought 9/11 would be Possible! Correct?

Response by Sgt Kelli Mays made Mar 9 at 2016 12:31 PM

Sgt Kelli Mays — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:31:14 -0500

Not really knowing what they really have in their arsenal....but guessing they are behind in time....but never the less, we should not just ignore them...just in case.

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Mar 9 at 2016 12:35 PM

CPT Jack Durish — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:35:40 -0500

Could North Korea hurt us? Of course it could. A bunch of skyjackers hurt us on 9/11 and they didn't have nukes (then). Could they destroy us? Of course not. So, what is there to fear? As FDR said, "Fear itself". Why would anyone be fearful these days when the U.S. possesses the military might to obliterate any one foolish enough to attack us? Because we fear ourselves, don't we? We fear that our leaders might not be prepared/interested to defend us aggressively. We fear that idiots like the leaders of North Korea might be tempted to lash out at us convinced that our leaders don't have the will or inclination to punish them appropriately. Is our fear reasonable? Some would argue not. How about you?

Response by SGT Dave Tracy made Mar 9 at 2016 12:46 PM

SGT Dave Tracy — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:46:09 -0500

They saber rattle as often as Kim Kardashian shows her ass to the internet, but perhaps one day, when Baby Dear Leader begins to feel his world closing in on him, whether it really is or not, that's when North Korea could get dangerous. We just might not recognize it right away.

Response by Lt Col Timothy Parker, DBA made Mar 9 at 2016 12:49 PM

Lt Col Timothy Parker, DBA — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:49:56 -0500

In my opinion, their leadership is continuing to rattle sabers, not for us, but to convince their own people they are relevant. They have done this over the decades. I was assigned to the UN Command/Korea during the first Gulf war. As I watched the allies take on Iraq, the North Koreans were very careful not to show any aggressive moves (they had much fewer intelligence indicators move than even a normal day). I suspect they did not want to be next in line for the allies.

That said, they need close monitoring since they are a wild card. I think they would prefer to keep the status quo as opposed to starting a war they will surely not win, and really become non-relevant (or non-existent). Just my humble opinion.

Response by LTC Stephen F. made Mar 9 at 2016 12:51 PM

LTC Stephen F. — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:51:01 -0500

North Korea is a very credible threat to South Korea, Japan and all nations that interests in the Sea of Japan and the northern South China Sea PFC Alexander Oliveira. The nation and its military service members have their backs against a wall and most realize that. They have used agents, midget submarines, and other assets to main, kill and destroy in South Korea for decades. their missiles threaten our assets and our allies in Japan, Okinawa, North Korea and the Philippines.
China has been able to reign them in at times but they can play China and Russia against each other since they are within range of Russia sensitive areas in eastern Russia.

Response by COL Jean (John) F. B. made Mar 9 at 2016 12:54 PM

COL Jean (John) F. B. — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:54:13 -0500

PFC Alexander Oliveira I don't think it is an "either/or" question. Yes they are a credible threat and yes they are probably just blowing smoke, once again. We should not underestimate their capability to do harm to us and our allies, either directly or through support to others.

Response by SSG Ryan Moore made Mar 9 at 2016 12:59 PM

SSG Ryan Moore — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 12:59:37 -0500

PFC Alexander Oliveira I've always lived with the mentality that you never underestimate the little man below you as they sometimes rise up and will show you a thing or two. Things never expected but can always happen. We didn't think that we were going to be prone to attack on 9/11 but looked what happened? We didn't think that we were going to be attacked on 7-Dec-1941 and where were we? You can never expect something from someone smaller than you but history has shown that this is possible. No threat should be disregarded as there are plenty of incidents that can happen. Just my thoughts and my analytical assessment..

Response by Alan K. made Mar 9 at 2016 1:09 PM

Alan K. — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:09:13 -0500

Absolutely a credible threat, if for no other reason than he's about as unstable as Mercury......Then we have their orbiting satellite coming across our bow a few times a day, yeah....I'd say it's credible and needs to be acted upon.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Mar 9 at 2016 1:09 PM

MAJ Ken Landgren — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:09:42 -0500

Unless China will support them, I think they will be weary of war of attrition. Saddam had a huge army, but that did not stop us from kicking his ass. We will get air superiority then our ground forces will push the attack.

Response by Capt Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 9 at 2016 1:22 PM

Capt Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:22:04 -0500

One mushroom cloud is a possibility.

Response by SFC Marcus Belt made Mar 9 at 2016 1:25 PM

SFC Marcus Belt — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:25:04 -0500

DPRK may have reached a crisis point where their military forces continue to deteriorate so rapidly that they feel the need to do SOMETHING before they become literally, incapable of doing ANYTHING other than harassing asymmetric attacks, and even then, those will be tempered because no one will fear their conventional military.

Which is why they are playing the nuke game. They probably feel like nukes will allow them to maintain relevance and the regime will be able to continually rattle their [nuclear] sabers for concessions and aid packages that are, essentially the lifeblood of the regime.

A few facts about the DPRK military: it's big, but rotting. They had to lower the cognitive standards for military service because the children of the devastating famine in the 90s are now of military age and many of them suffer from significant intellectual deficits. The average North Korean man is now shorter than the average South Korean woman. A Slate reporter visited and referred to them as a nation of "racist dwarves".

Can they hurt us and our RoK allies? Sure. But the time for them to do it conventionally diminishes rapidly.

Response by LTC Paul Labrador made Mar 9 at 2016 1:30 PM

LTC Paul Labrador — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:30:39 -0500

Are they a credible threat to wreck havoc on the ROK? Yes. They easily have that capability. Do they have the capability to unite the peninsula under Kim Jong Un's rule? Only if the ROK and the US literally do everything wrong.

I think the question you need to be asking is this: WILL North Korea do anything? The answer to that is define "anything". I do not see North Korea starting an all out war with the ROK like they did in 1950. Why? Because they know the only thing that will come about by that (other than the devastation of the Korean peninsula) is the demise of North Korea as a sovereign country and the peninsula being reunited under the ROK. China is not going to bail them out this time. However, they also know that the ROK has more to lose in the short term, as the ROK economy, industry and cities can be heavily damaged in a limited exchange, which makes the ROK very conservative when it comes to retaliation. That leave wiggle room for North Korea to act badly, even taking pot shots at the South, knowing that escalation to full retaliation is unlikely.

Response by SrA Edward Vong made Mar 9 at 2016 1:30 PM

SrA Edward Vong — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:30:44 -0500

It is arguable that some North Korean leaders probably want to build a better relationship with the United States. However given that nation's history, it would be hard and they do what they do daily as a result. That propaganda has unfortunately brainwashed the whole country and it would be very hard to undo. Sucks for them.

Are they still a credible threat? It would be wrong to say no.

Response by SSG(P) Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 9 at 2016 1:43 PM

SSG(P) Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:43:26 -0500

The bottom line is this:

The goal of the Kim family is to keep the Kim family in power forever. With this understanding, they know that lighting off even a tac-nuke will cause the rest of the world to end the DPRK once and for all. They know this. The ROK knows this. We know this. China has also stated that they would assist the DPRK if attacked, however, if the DPRK starts a war, China will NOT back them. This is a huge deterrent in of itself.

In the opening moments of a DPRK-ROK war, the entire top echelon of the DPRK forces would be wiped out. Kim would either be dead or on the run, and thus unable to govern. Without Dear Leader, I bet most of the DPRK forces would NOT continue the fight. Kim Jong Un knows this all.

The pattern has repeated itself for decades. They get low on food and fuel, and/or UFG kicks off, and they start saber-rattling. The West gives them food and fuel, and they get quiet for another year. If you've been paying attention, you would see this obvious pattern.

Thus, the only way there will be war on the peninsula is if a Kim goes crazy and gets ambitious, or there is a coup by someone even crazier. And again, in either instance, NK will cease to exist in short order.

Response by LTC John Shaw made Mar 9 at 2016 1:52 PM

LTC John Shaw — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:52:53 -0500

They are a credible threat to SK and Japan, but not the US; however we don't want them to build this capability. We need to make the Chinese accountable for NK and stop talking with NK, literally ignore them. We tell China, SK and Japan to prepare for a new strategy. Each time they launch a missile we destroy the platforms and all supporting sites around it. Say nothing except to the Chinese and the world to state that we will only take defensive action directly after an NK missile launch.
I know this is too high risk for the SK population but I would like to see this wargamed.

Response by CPT Pedro Meza made Mar 9 at 2016 1:57 PM

CPT Pedro Meza — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:57:39 -0500

North Korea is used by China, to hook the US and NATO to maintain business as usual, military industry is not complaining either.

Response by 1SG Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 9 at 2016 2:44 PM

1SG Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 14:44:12 -0500

China and even Russia have directed concerns about how DPRK has been attempting to play the nuclear card. It is my somewhat informed opinion that they are blowing smoke with this threat. The recent claim that they tested a Fusion H-bomb has been proven false by experts from many agencies worldwide. As far as the ability to miniaturize a weapon to fit on an ICBM, that is a very difficult technical feat that rivals putting a man on the moon. There is a reason it has only been done by a few nations..nations with a lot more resources and help then DPRK has. If, somehow this were accomplished, I don't think they have more then 1 or 2 warheads. Western missile defense networks, with redundancies in place will surely be able to stop the attempts. Given their poor record so far with successful missile test launches, they may not be able to get one up anyway.

The bigger threat would be the launch of a major ground attack. If they were crazy enough to go that far, then I bet they would be crazy enough to back that up with bio-chem weapons

Response by PFC Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 9 at 2016 3:54 PM

PFC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 15:54:57 -0500

Is North Korea a threat by its self no. They are that one guy everyone knows who talks and talks throws a few air punches but when push comes to shove they back down. However, add North Korea and Iran you get a place for Iran to hide their nukes during inspections and gives that kid a smoking gun in their pocket now they become a real treat.

Response by MSgt James Mullis made Mar 9 at 2016 4:44 PM

MSgt James Mullis — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 16:44:10 -0500

Its a matter of the scope of the threat they pose. Are they a physical threat to South Korea? Oh yeah! Can they destroy America or even one of our allies? No way! Can they attack somewhere in the US if they wanted? Probably, but on a very limited scale and with very negative returns on their part. I'm definitely not worried about them hitting New Mexico anytime soon. Could they get a functioning nuke outside the Peninsula without our knowing about it? I highly doubt it. Could they damage the stock market and destroy unknown amounts of electronic wealth? Oh yeah!

Response by SPC George Rudenko made Mar 9 at 2016 4:50 PM

SPC George Rudenko — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 16:50:11 -0500

They are a regional threat, not a global one.

Response by CW4 Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 9 at 2016 6:21 PM

CW4 Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 18:21:17 -0500

If we aren't taking NK and their threats seriously, then we better start.

Response by SrA Matthew Knight made Mar 9 at 2016 6:24 PM

SrA Matthew Knight — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 18:24:23 -0500

In the immediate vicinity surrounding the Korean Peninsula they could very well be perceived as a legitimate threat. Kim doesn't really have rules that govern what he does. I would say they aren't much of a threat to the Americas or Europe though.

I will say that it could become something that could threaten America or are European allies very easily however. Sure it wouldn't be difficult to wipe NK off the map if they decided to do something stupid so they themselves aren't much of a threat to us but countries like China or Russia could very quickly become even more of a threat if not straight up enemies if we did attack NK.

Response by SPC Eddie "Nemo" Aiumu made Mar 10 at 2016 1:42 AM

SPC Eddie "Nemo" Aiumu — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 01:42:00 -0500

I thought their leader was a Unicorn moon walking badass.

Response by MSgt Michael Smith made Mar 10 at 2016 2:20 PM

MSgt Michael Smith — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:20:22 -0500

Both! At the same time!

Response by SPC Harold Bustamante made Mar 12 at 2016 12:09 AM

SPC Harold Bustamante — Sat, 12 Mar 2016 00:09:50 -0500

blowing smoke.... always have, as for US no, as for south korea, yeah its a problem, but China and Russia have a lot of influence and they should step up to chill them out. maybe giving free tickets to the govt to see disney land or Universal Theme park will help..