ISIS, ISIL or DAESH, stupid, smart or lucky?

2015-11-14T16:12:21-05:00

The last time there was truly a Caliphate its expansion was broken by the French under Charles (the Hammer) Martel. DAESH styles itself a Caliphate, attacking a historical enemy certainly seems to make propaganda sense, particularly if it can stimulate continued warfare to serve either apocalyptic or destabilizing ends. The violent benefit from violence.

What is your assessment as a military professional? What do you think of the tactical execution? The operational choices? The strategy? To defeat an enemy we must know them better. And believe this: if you remain a military professional you will fight someone connected to this ideology eventually.

This connects to an earlier post from the Charlie Hebdo attacks seeking to stimulate discussion about the operational purpose of those attacks, and to several others here that I encourage further review of.
https://www.rallypoint.com/answers/what-is-the-operational-purpose-behind-the-charlie-hebdo-paris-attacks

And one asking what people expected France to do in the wake of those attacks, which is directly connected to this one.
https://www.rallypoint.com/answers/how-will-france-react-to-the-attack-on-charlie-hebdo-magazine

What is the Operational purpose behind the Charlie Hebdo/Paris attacks? | RallyPoint

Unlike my other discussion question interested in the reaction of France and the US to the attacks and some of the news-source based discussion questions of what actually occurred and one debating the proximate motivations of the attack, this thread is about the Operational purpose. The Strategic is policy outcome (most Jihadists want a Caliphate) Tactics win battles (or terrorist attacks) and Operations link Strategy and Tactics. The...

Response by CSM Michael J. Uhlig made Nov 14 at 2015 4:22 PM

2015-11-14T16:22:01-05:00

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Nov 14 at 2015 4:47 PM

2015-11-14T16:47:53-05:00

I'm leaning towards 2. They want "Legitimacy." Attacking France is Bold. It will lead to one of two outcomes, an attempt at negotiations, which legitimizes them as an actual Government/Organization on the world stage or the French may call foul and ask their oldest ally for a helping hand.

We may mock France for their Diplomatic ways, but we learned ours from them just as we learned our expansionist and interventionist ways from Mother Britain. ISIL has potententially messed with the wrong ally. I don't even like the word Ally but I use it with France, because our histories our so intertwined that no other word does them justice.

If the world thought we overreacted when WE were attacked, just wait and see how we're going to overreact when our little brother France STOPS holding us back. It will be be like the romcoms when the girlfriend finally says Bully has gone to far, and Hero can unload.

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Nov 14 at 2015 5:05 PM

2015-11-14T17:05:04-05:00

Okay, let's get the assumptions out of the way. We're assuming that the latest attack was carried out by one of the radical arms of Islam, most likely ISIS or one such. We're thus assuming that this was not just a criminal act perpetrated by, well, criminals, nor was it an attack by guns and grenades either floating unattended around Paris or having welded themselves into the hands of innocent bystanders.

Stupid? Yes, but don't expect any "hammer". Smart? Maybe. Clever? More likely. Lucky? We'll have to wait and see if they "win" anything. If they do (for example, obtain concessions) then, yes, very lucky.

Ultimately, I must admit that this one beggars my imagination. I am beyond figuring out what the hell they want or wish. Honestly, I'm glad I can't think of it. I might be ashamed of myself if I could.

Response by SPC Nathan Freeman made Nov 14 at 2015 5:25 PM

2015-11-14T17:25:33-05:00

There will be more from the brood of "refugees" who seem to not have wives or children

Response by MAJ Alvin B. made Nov 15 at 2015 12:12 AM

2015-11-15T00:12:49-05:00

Worth reading.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/?utm_source=SFFB

What ISIS Really Wants

The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Nov 15 at 2015 1:56 PM

2015-11-15T13:56:17-05:00

Isis is the size of a conventional army (30,000 estimate). Right now they have a base of operations in Iraq to conduct military type and terrorist attacks. They are using information to connect Muslims who concede to the Caliphate. I want to illustrate France's Muslim population of 4.7 million. They have taken over a city and several towns, where the indigenous French are brutalized. Sharia law rules. A big friction point is Frances separation of religion and state ideology, however, many Muslims view Islam as omnipotent and ever present. The threat has two fronts, ISIS in Iraq and Muslims in various non-Muslim countries. As long as ISIS has a safe haven in Iraq, the more Muslims believe in the Caliphate.

Response by Capt Jeff S. made Dec 1 at 2015 3:31 AM

2015-12-01T03:31:18-05:00

#2 without the smart. It's very easy to see what they're doing. Read their book and it all makes sense. They have a very literal interpretation of the Qu'ran and have not come out of the 7th century -- at least in terms of how they view the world and the people in it. I think they are entirely predictable in how they govern and meet out justice, and in terms of their goals and what they hope to achieve politically/religiously/militarily (it's all pretty much the same thing for them); what isn't as predictable is the how, where and when they will attack.