The Two Roads of 2001

CPT Alex Gallo — Sat, 08 Oct 2022 08:26:39 -0400

April 1, 2001- The US Navy Lockheed EP-3 that landed on Hainan Island after a collision with a J-8 Finback.

Last month, we observed the passing of another 9/11 anniversary – 21 years on from the terrorist attacks of that day. Al-Qaeda’s attack on September 11th, 2001 remains seared into America’s psyche to this day. The tragic event fostered a high need for closure within the American public, leading to a call for swift justice that put the United States on a trajectory to fight various forms of war across the greater Middle East region for the next 20 years. However, 9/11 was not the only strategic event for the United States in 2001.

Just a few months prior to 9/11, there was another high-stakes incident that could have changed the complexion and direction of the intervening 20 years. On April 1, 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collied with a US reconnaissance aircraft off the coast of China. This led to a forced landing of the US aircraft. While this incident was ultimately resolved peacefully with the transfer of the American pilots back to US custody, this incident revealed the early contours of strategic competition between the United States and China. Yet, history intervened, and the United States became focused on fighting a global “war on terrorism.”

In the decades that followed 9/11, Washington engaged in a “long war” to eradicate terrorism by killing terrorist leaders, including al-Qaeda’s top leaders, Osama bin Laden, and more recently, Ayman al-Zawahiri. While killing these and other terrorist leaders was certainly satisfying and had some operational effect, policymakers made two strategic errors during this period. First, they exclusively focused on killing terrorist leaders rather than the ideology itself – an ideology that remains potent to this day. Second, the US military prepared for the wrong war.

The United States prepared for and fought a war against non-state groups with AK-47s and IEDs in far-flung locals – from Yemen, to Somalia, to Afghanistan, to Iraq – rather than a strategic adversary such as China with the ability to fight not only in space but also cyberspace.

Meanwhile, over the same two decades following 9/11, China accelerated its strategic rise. China grew its GDP from $1.2 trillion to $14.7 trillion. China also built a stand-off zone in South China Sea through land reclamation and militarization of man-made islands. Further, China established a missile arsenal with the ability to threaten the region and beyond; developed capabilities to asymmetrically challenge US military platforms; and organized to fight on land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. It stole intellectual property on an unmatched scale. And it engaged in predatory tactics around trade to further its control in the region. In short, the United States took its eye off the challenge of China in 2001 and is just now trying to catch up.

The behavior of Chinese Communist Party leaders today suggest they see the United States as a declining power. They feel comfortable directly challenging the United States on the world stage. For example, Jiang Jinquan, director of the policy research office of the party’s central committee, asserted that United States and Western powers were not real democracies:

“Democracy is not an exclusive patent of Western countries and even less should it be defined or dictated by Western countries…The electoral democracy of Western countries are actually democracy ruled by the capital, and they are a game of the rich, not real democracy.”

China has gone even further, criticizing the United States as racist, unequal, and ineffective in its governance. In fact, just over a year ago, the Chinese Communist Party’s State Information Office released a report that opened with the word: “I can't breathe,” referring to the tragic incident of police brutality that led to the death of George Floyd. The Chinese Communist Party report also asserted that the United States “saw its own epidemic situation go out of control, accompanied by political disorder, inter-ethnic conflicts, and social division,” going on to also highlight the violence at the US capitol on January 6th:

“What happened on Capitol Hill revealed the shortcomings of U.S. democracy…And that is the two political parties would sometimes do everything they can to advance their own interests...They would incite division and violence among the people. So, can U.S. society continue to prosper under its current democratic system? I would put a question mark on it.”

The United States has been counted out many times before to include the years that followed the Vietnam War when the Soviet Union viewed the United States as a declining power much like China’s rhetoric today. Yet, the United States turned things around and met the moment, ultimately leading to the end of the Soviet Union.

Can we do it again? Only time will tell. But one thing is for certain – the United States must remain strategically focused on the challenge of China because, as 9/11 showed us, history can intervene and re-focus the United States in astrategic ways.

But if it happens again, we may not recover…

Alex Gallo is the author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society. Alex also is a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute, an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and a US Army Veteran. Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloCMP.

Response by Lt Col Charlie Brown made Oct 8 at 2022 8:29 AM

Lt Col Charlie Brown — Sat, 08 Oct 2022 08:29:48 -0400

You raise some really good points...especially about focusing on the leaders instead of the ideology...I agree, that is a serious error that will cost us greatly (and has already)

Response by SSG Dave Johnston made Oct 8 at 2022 12:16 PM

SSG Dave Johnston — Sat, 08 Oct 2022 12:16:53 -0400

Please explain the similarities, and or differences between, "Islam, a Theocracy spanning several countries vs Chinese Communism", which of the two have more leeway in "Diplomacy"... Eye for an eye vs turn the other cheek...

Addendum:
The problem with the US fighting in Afghanistan and Iran is/was the "Nation rebuilding" that the US attempted and the out of control "Baksheesh" we spend/spent while having our efforts destroyed by the vary people we were attempting to help. Had we paid any attention to how the Islamic mindset work with western assistance i.e Israel's rebuilding of Gaza, The West Bank, Southern Lebanon, the Siani peninsula, I've noticed that "Western Technology" is not appreciated unless it advances Islam, so the loss of life to US/Collation personnel would have been lower... The objective should have been, go in find the perpetrators and leave. Afghanistan being on the southern Silk Road it has had a millennium of wanna be conquerors attempting to control that piece of real estate with Russa/USSR being the last nation to attempt "Western" control... As to Iran, we shouldn't have bothered, there was nothing there worth loosing lives over... Our experience in Vietnam should have taught us at least that much...

What someone should be questioning is the "Nation Building/Coup in Libya. Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi had been behaving himself ever since Ronald Reagen sent him a gift due to the Pan Am 103 bombing??? Was the US using Libya as a staging platform for arms to Syrian rebels??? An the Then Secretary of States lack of concern over Benghazi..

Response by SFC David Reid, M.S, PHR, SHRM-CP, DTM made Oct 8 at 2022 12:53 PM

SFC David Reid, M.S, PHR, SHRM-CP, DTM — Sat, 08 Oct 2022 12:53:36 -0400

I would put a question mark on it! As we have fought wars that we where not strategically or tactically trying to win in South Vietnam and wasted lives and money in Afganistan. You would have thought that we would have lessons learned from the French in Vietnam and Russians relative to Afgznistan. History always repeats itself. One of our flaws is that we create our own narrative without substance, in my opinion,

Response by SN Private RallyPoint Member made Oct 8 at 2022 3:49 PM

SN Private RallyPoint Member — Sat, 08 Oct 2022 15:49:00 -0400

Thanks for such an informative post.

Response by LTC Jason Mackay made Oct 9 at 2022 12:06 AM

LTC Jason Mackay — Sun, 09 Oct 2022 00:06:25 -0400

The US has been in strategic competition with the PRC since 1950. It is only recently Americans have become tangentially aware of it. Please check out “The Hundred Year Marathon” by Michael Phillips

Response by SPC Erich Guenther made Oct 9 at 2022 12:27 AM

SPC Erich Guenther — Sun, 09 Oct 2022 00:27:20 -0400

The more immediate threat was radical Islam so I think we focused correctly. I keep hearing about how China will overtake us Economically but the date for that keeps pushing back and I for one do not think it will ever happen. What the Chinese Communist Party says publicly differs greatly from what it says privately and privately the CCP is very concerned about the lack of innovation in China and that China has to reverse engineer everything vs developing a better way itself. They point out internally and rightly so that China will never be a leader unless it can innovate as fast and as relevant as the West does.....I believe that assessment to be correct but externally you will never hear the CCP say that or even admit to that. Their basic problem and the reason they cannot overtake us is Communism is the weaker of the two systems and will be forever. So unless the CCP abandons Communism and embraces Capitalism. We have nothing to worry about on the competitive front.

Response by SGT Stephen Rowland made Oct 9 at 2022 8:23 PM

SGT Stephen Rowland — Sun, 09 Oct 2022 20:23:56 -0400

Learning from failed decisions, Henry Kissinger convinced President Nixon to visit China in the seventies. Training the taliban in Afghanistan to pay back the Russians for aiding North Vietnam. Donald Rumsfeld, President Regans Middle East envoy delivered weapons of mass destruction (nerve gas, toxins and other deadly pathogens to Saddam Hussein in the early 1980s. Weapons he used against Iran with our consent. Desert Shield, Desert Storm, General Norman Schwarzkopf stopped from taking Saddam out. Our sanctions (UN ) against Iraq after invading Kuwait 08/1990-05/2003.. The death of over 500,000 children in Iraq because of sanctions we employed, that were deemed appropriate by Madeleine Albright our Secretary of State. Our policies and actions create new enemies at every turn. Abu Ghraib forments ISIS. Please believe me we have not overlooked China. I have heard the White House uses the best Chinese fine bone dinnerware.

Response by MSG Greg Kelly made Oct 11 at 2022 5:53 PM

MSG Greg Kelly — Tue, 11 Oct 2022 17:53:40 -0400

The US seems to have a very bad habit of leaving, giving and just surrendering equipment to people who should not have it

Response by SPC Michael Tierney made Oct 15 at 2022 4:16 PM

SPC Michael Tierney — Sat, 15 Oct 2022 16:16:34 -0400

It may just be another conspiracy theory that won't be proven but it seems that 9/11 was a Saudi Arabian attack. All but one of the criminals was from SA. Like the murder of Kashogi, the SA government denied any involvement. But all those guys came to the US with plenty of cash and access to safe houses and training. Is anyone naive enough to believe these murderers were that smart? Maybe with the oil issue from OPEC+ reducing their output by 2%, something g will be revealed about SA involvement. Trump simply absolved MBS from any responsibility for the murder and then his son-in-law got $2 billion from the Saudis to start his investment management business. Saudia Arabia is an important enemy too.