TS Cristobal update

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 16:16:53 -0400

TD4 is now Tropical Storm Cristobal
Cristobal is not fully formed yet as the Vertical Profile with regards to winds are out of synch. Once these winds align then the full weight of this storm can be established and the storm will deepen (lower pressure) and the adiabatic processes will become stronger.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

The overall cloud pattern of Cristobal has changed little since
the previous advisory. Flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Cristobal
earlier this morning indicated that the low-level and mid-level
circulations were not vertically aligned, suggesting that the
inner-core wind field of the cyclone is still trying to form. The
initial intensity of 40 kt is based on 1000-ft flight-level winds of
49 kt and a few reliable SFMR winds of near 40 kt.

The initial motion is an uncertain 345/6 kt. There are significant
differences noted between the various NHC models. The GFS model and
the GFS ensemble mean shear the mid-level circulation southward from
the current position, and take the remaining shallow and weak
low-level circulation quickly northeastward, which seems unlikely at
this time given the overall large structure of the cyclone noted in
recon, satellite, and upper-air data. In contrast, the ECMWF, UKMET,
and NAVGEM models keep Cristobal as a deeper, stronger, and more
vertically coherent cyclone, moving the system only slowly
north-northwestward or northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as
a strong mid-latitude trough over the Carolinas lifts out to the
northeast. As the trough lifts out, the subtropical ridge is
expected to build back in to the north of Cristobal until a second
trough moves off the U.S. east coast in 4-5 days and weakens the
ridge again, allowing Cristobal to move slowly northward and then
accelerate off to the northeast. More weight has been placed the on
the ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions, and the official forecast track
remains near the left side of the guidance envelope.

Light to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is expected to
affect Cristobal throughout the forecast period. However, the shear
is not forecast to be strong enough to prevent at least slow
strengthening, especially given that the upper-level flow is
expected to be quite diffluent and divergent through at least 48
hours, which will act to enhance convective development. The NHC
intensity forecast remains close to SHIPS guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 23.6N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 24.9N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 25.7N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.6N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 29.3N 74.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 241449
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 73.1W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 73.1W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.2N 73.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.9N 73.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 74.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.3N 74.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

Response by PO1 Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 24 at 2014 4:18 PM

PO1 Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 16:18:37 -0400

Wishing everyone in the area to stay safe and ride it out in one piece!

Response by CPT Jacob Swartout made Aug 24 at 2014 4:19 PM

CPT Jacob Swartout — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 16:19:55 -0400

Tropical Storms are devastating. I hope no one gets hurt or killed from it. Too many of these along with tornados, floods, earthquakes, etc just completely turn people's lives upside down when they create disaster in areas. Wish they would stay out at sea or in areas not populated.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 24 at 2014 4:55 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 24 Aug 2014 16:55:07 -0400

Cristobal near 1600EDT

WTNT44 KNHC 242050
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Cristobal's convective cloud pattern has not changed much during the
past 6 hours, other than cloud tops having warmed some. Aircraft and
satellite data indicate that the inner-core wind field is still
broad, with multiple small swirls rotating around a mean center. Air
Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate the
central pressure has remained steady at 1001 mb, so the initial
intensity will be kept at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is northward or 360/7 kt. The NHC model guidance
has come into much better agreement on this cycle with the GFS track
having shifted westward and the ECMWF model having shifted eastward.
The rest of the models are reasonably close to the GFS and ECMWF
solutions. There is one main difference, however, which is the track
speed, with the GFS model lagging behind the ECMWF model and some
of the other models by more than 500 n mi at 120 hours. Cristobal
is expected to continue moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge and slow down over the next 72 hours as a strong
upper-level trough east of North Carolina lifts out to the
northeast. A second trough currently over the upper Midwest is
forecast to dig southeastward along the U.S. east coast by Days 4
and 5 and accelerate the cyclone northeastward over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast track has been shifted eastward
through 72 hours, and then shows a faster forward speed similar to
the ICON consensus model at 96 and 120 hours.

Light to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is forecast to
affect Cristobal through 72 hours, which should allow for only slow
strengthening to occur. When Cristobal makes a northeastward turn
and accelerates after that time, the shear is expected to decrease
while the cyclone is over near-29C SST, which should allow Cristobal
to strengthen into a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus
intensity model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 24.5N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.9N 73.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 25.7N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 26.6N 72.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 28.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 31.9N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 35.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 39.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.9N 73.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.7N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.6N 72.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.4N 72.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.9N 71.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 39.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

IN SHORT. A FEW HIGH SEAS ALONG THE COAST.

STAY TUNED!

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 25 at 2014 2:05 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:05:21 -0400

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR PIRATES COVE ON MAYAGUANA ISLAND
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT

C:\Users\larry\Pictures\current ts 24 2341200.gif

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level
center fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloud
mass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMR
winds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a central
pressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surface
wind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erratically
north-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has been
impeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hours
by keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,
and this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,
a deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to capture
Cristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast while
the Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.
The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developing
scenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt has
been affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subside
to around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time some
slight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shear
is forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal to
strengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes to
the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4
and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and
encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomes
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in
extratropical transition by 120 hours.

Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible
flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos through Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 24.6N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 26.0N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 27.8N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 30.0N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 32.2N 69.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 36.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 42.7N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 49.5N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP