Posted on Sep 8, 2014
CPO Jon Campbell
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Several years ago, in came to light that Putin believed in the abiotic theory of oil (i.e. that oil grows and is not a fossil fuel). While the Western world scoffs at this theory, is our lack of understanding of abiotic oil theory influencing our analysis of Putin and his goals in relation to Ukraine?
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1SG Aviation Operations Specialist
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Wow, is this actually a major theory? Perhaps we could just get scientists to grow new oil in labs then!
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CPO Jon Campbell
CPO Jon Campbell
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Abiotic oil theroy is serious in Russia, but not in the Western world. Russia has done extensive research on abiotic oil theory. To an ordinary person it wouldn't make much difference if oil comes from crushed dinosaurs and plants or somehow grows, but to country developing long-term energy strategy, knowing where the oil will be next could influence where strategic resources are placed today. If Putn is betting that Ukraine has a future source of oil, his tactics and strategies will not be the same as if he were only considering routes of oil pipe lines from current sources of oil. It doesn't matter if he is right or wrong about abiotic oil. What does matter is whether or not we understand what he believes because that will determine whether or not we can anticipate his moves.
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SGT Richard H.
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Interesting thread, CPO Jon Campbell. I had never heard of this before (abiotic oil theory) so I did some quick googling, and it seems there are some people here that think it's worth examining as well. Who knows? We figured out how to make gasoline from algae a couple of years ago, so why not?

With regard to the thread topic, I can definitely see where Putin (or whoever) might gamble on where they believe the next store may lie....as far as using that to predict their next move, though, that seems a little more difficult as it would either have to involve some science that exactly agrees with theirs, or some high-level espionage.
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