What is behind the ammo shortage?

2015-09-03T09:28:31-04:00

Since 2008 we have seen a shortage of ammo supplies to the point that some distributers are rationing the number of boxes which can be purchased at one time. There are numerous theories as to why this is happening. Initially when I inquired as to why this was happening I was told, the manufacturer was refitting the plant and there was a problem which resulted from the tool and die maker miscalibrating equipment. Ok fair enough, but there are 42 ammunition manufacturers in the United States. Time went on and we continued to see a shortage of ammunition available to the public for purchase. Prices of ammo more than doubled because of supply and demand. During this time the sale of weapons to the public increased by more than 6%. Another theory was that the shortage happened because POTUS closed the last lead smelting plant in the U.S. (Enacting backdoor gun control). While it is true the lead smelting plant closed, it closed because it was unable to meet standards set forth in the Clean Air Act and determined it would be too costly to make the upgrades verses building a new plant. Additionally ammunition manufacturers do not use virgin lead in their processes, (which is what this plant produced) but get their lead from secondary lead sources. Time marched on and we heard more conjecture about the reason behind the shortage. What continued to happen since 2008 is a steady increase of gun sales in the U.S. driven in large part because of a fear of our government restricting the right to bear arms. Higher weapon purchases of course create more demand for ammunition. Ammunition manufacturers report that in the five year span from 2008 to 2012 their orders doubled and they were unable to keep up with the demand. As a result Ammunition manufacturers added shifts and this fear pushed people to stockpile large amounts of ammunition. For example Joe goes to walmart to purchase ammo and notices there isn't as much there as he usually sees so he purchases more than he needs and the trend continues. News stories begin to happen about the shortage and more people get in on the act. Fear of the loss of gun rights because of the mass shootings feeds this frenzy and weapons sales continues to increase and with it the demand for ammunition also increases. As a result of the demand some ammunition manufacturers reduced shipments to some distributers adding to the already low levels of ammo available, thus adding to the frenzied attempt by some to stockpile. "People walk into the store, they don't see as much as they want so they take everything they can get. The next guy who comes in can't get anything, so he panics." This shortage is purely a consumer driven shortage. You can see it how it became a vicious circle.

There may be relief in sight though, Remington broke ground on a $32 million expansion of their Lonoke, AR plant in 2013. We can expect to see more ammunition available but don't expect to see ever see the ammunition prices to drop back down to pre 2008 prices. In part this is due to the rising cost of raw products for production and the cost of increasing production. (wages, new equipment...).

What's on the horizon for .22 and .22LR ammunition? This is probably the most sought after caliber of ammunition. We're probably not going to see much change for these because, "Top manufactures have decided to forego any large-scale expansions to their .22 LR production. Due to the very small profit margins on .22 caliber ammunition, manufactures cannot justify the enormous costs they would incur by expanding at the risk of a drop in demand for this particular ammunition."

On the whole though we should be seeing relief as production is increased and expansions happen.

** I changed the graphic because some were offended that it contained political symbols. My mission is not to offend anyone's political choice of party but to show it is probable that an increase in weapons sales has led to an increase in ammunition sales. It's the supply and demand structure. Scarcity drives up price and causes panic.**

Response by Sgt David G Duchesneau made Sep 3 at 2015 9:44 AM

2015-09-03T09:44:32-04:00

If Homeland Security would stop buying it all up, there would be no shortage! Bastards! lol

Response by SPC Jan Allbright, M.Sc., R.S. made Sep 3 at 2015 9:46 AM

2015-09-03T09:46:07-04:00

My local Wally World is looking pretty stocked up.
I actually switched to my little 1911 22lr because 9mm was getting so hard to find .. and then the 22lr started to disappear!

Response by SSgt Terry P. made Sep 3 at 2015 9:55 AM

2015-09-03T09:55:57-04:00

CPT Private RallyPoint Member Another good read. IMO -just another case of getting the price higher by regulating the supply.

Response by SSG Warren Swan made Sep 3 at 2015 10:13 AM

2015-09-03T10:13:37-04:00

Well it doesn't help that lamestream media makes it seem a certain way, knowing they're directly affecting the outcome for the consumers and making money for the producers.

Response by LTC Stephen F. made Sep 3 at 2015 10:37 AM

2015-09-03T10:37:42-04:00

When I saw your discussion title I thought you were referring to the US military ammunition shortage CPT Private RallyPoint Member. Munitions have been deliberately underfunded along with spare parts [reparable and consumable for decades based on acceptable risk with limited budgets which tended to have high priorities for emerging weapons systems.
As far as the graphical depiction, I was interested to see that the Donkey was not posted above 1999 and 2000 when impeached former President Bill Clinton was in office.
Since the graph depicts background checks for gun ownership but the discussion is focused on ammunition shortages there is a slight disconnect between graphic and story :-)
Notice a slight down slide in background checks for new gun owners the period after 9/11/2001.
Since I expect a background check is required for each purchase whether one weapon or ten weapons [laws vary by state over this period] are being purchased and laws have moved from permitting multiple purchases of weapons to single purchases within a time-frame, it is conceivable that the number of gun purchases has remained generally stable.
It would be good to see a graph of ammunition production for personal use over the time period. Since some of the ammunition producers also produce ammunition for military purposes and one OIF kicked off ammunition uses by the military increased ammunition shortages for personal use could be driven by higher priority production runs for military and police requirements.

Response by PO3 Steven Sherrill made Sep 3 at 2015 10:56 AM

2015-09-03T10:56:39-04:00

The ultra liberals cannot take guns away. They are working on the next best thing, limiting access to the ammunition. It does not violate the Second Amendment, but it does violate the spirit of the Second Amendment. I am a big fan of the United States Constitution. It is a beautiful document that serves We The People well (when it is not being used by politicians as toilet paper). Sadly, this is one of those instances where the politicians are trying to skirt the Constitution by limiting access to ammunition. I equate it to saying that peaceful protests are allowed between the hours of 3am and 6am. Sure the right of the people to assemble is not being infringed upon, but it is being negated by the time. It is ridiculous, and needs to stop.

Response by MSgt James Mullis made Sep 3 at 2015 11:07 AM

2015-09-03T11:07:35-04:00

Government interference!

Response by MCPO Roger Collins made Sep 3 at 2015 12:27 PM

2015-09-03T12:27:03-04:00

Supply and demand, Econ. 101. That and the salesman of the year, President Obama, who makes threats of gun control and the gun sales skyrocket, along with ammo.

Response by LT Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2015 12:39 PM

2015-09-03T12:39:04-04:00

There are shortages because there has been regulation to try and close the lead plants needed to manufacture ammunition. In addition the government, all agencies, have been purchasing ammo in bulk despite the fact that some of those agencies don't use ammo.

Response by 1SG Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2015 1:36 PM

2015-09-03T13:36:30-04:00

What I know unequivically is that Federal Premium in by backyard is running three shifts and can't make ammo fast enough.

The most likely culprit is that the "prepper" phenomenon is causing people to buy lots of bullets and store it in their basement.
It used to be that a gun owner would have a few rounds around and buy a few boxes for hunting season or a trip to the range. Throw a bunch of people in the mix consuming large quantities, and empty shelves cause regular folks to buy when they otherwise wouldn't so they won't be short when they want to use their firearms.
I expect this will level off soon.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2015 3:43 PM

2015-09-03T15:43:48-04:00

It's due primarily to three reasons, two you touch on quite well and the other seems to have been overlooked. You mentioned a significant increase in the demand for ammunition and the impact a perceived shortage of ammunition has on the market. What you didn't mention was the how manufacturing has developed "lean" concepts that are designed to eliminate large amounts of inventory and unfinished goods. Industry has been moving toward "just enough, just in time" for the past few decades in order to reduce costs and become more competitive. The downside to "just enough, just in time" is that the system is not robust and able to handle major fluctuations in demand.

Increased demand, the perception that there is a shortage and lean manufacturing taken all together, easily account for the shortage of ammunition.

Response by SSG John Erny made Sep 3 at 2015 4:17 PM

2015-09-03T16:17:08-04:00

As far as .22LR and .22 Mag I have seen first hand of people doing things to pad their own pocket. At the Local Large retailers like Wal-Mart there is a group of retired guys and gun shop owners there every morning waiting for 22 ammo. They buy it all up and either take to guns shows or put it in their small gun shop and sell it at a huge mark up. Those of us who have to work for a living can not wait for hours on end for the retailers to put it on the shelf.
I have been tempted to call in some of the gun shop owners to make sure that they are not buying retail and selling it again retail. From what I understand that breaks certain tax laws.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2015 4:57 PM

2015-09-03T16:57:52-04:00

Ok...I'll admit it. I'm a hoarder. A good majority of it is safely locked up in my gun cabinet.

I bout 1650 rds of 22lr a couple of weeks ago for a little less that 100.00

I buy majority of reloads for range time and haven't found any issue getting any caliber i need. The non "plinging/"good stuff" I run across and buy the limit and squirrel it away.

Response by SGT Bryon Sergent made Sep 3 at 2015 5:41 PM

2015-09-03T17:41:22-04:00

Well I had also heard that the Department of Homeland Security was buying up all these rounds and that was what caused it also. Conspiracy theorist say that the DHS is going to come get the weapons. Well I don't know about that, but what about the DHS acquiring the Coast Guard and needing to now supply them with the ammo they need to train and protect!

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 3 at 2015 6:11 PM

2015-09-03T18:11:48-04:00

CPT Private RallyPoint Member, Is there still a shortage on civilian weapons bullets? I remember last year, when there was a shortage, there was not any available, except for long guns and shotguns. My brother deals in selling weapons and ammo and the shortage was so bad he couldn't get any ammo to sell to his customers. When I went to the range, I had to use their reloads. 20 rounds for $25. Since ammo is available again, it's back down to $9 a box. I am pretty well stocked up in case there is another shortage in the future.I forgot to add when I went to Academy and Bass Pro Shop, their shelves were empty. When I asked if they were going to get any shipments, I was told they get shipments every day and if I wanted to buy some I had to be there by 0500 and wait in line. If there was any left I could buy it.i didn't want it that bad so I didn't go.

Response by SFC Michael Hasbun made Sep 10 at 2015 2:02 PM

2015-09-10T14:02:31-04:00

A lot of it is it seems a great many Commanders and S-3's don't understand the difference between STRAC standard and STRAC strategy, resulting in ridiculous amounts of wasted ammo. Not to mention units blowing ammo to avoid turn ins...

In short, we are wasteful and don't manage stocks properly.

Response by Cpl Robert Crockett made Sep 10 at 2015 7:56 PM

2015-09-10T19:56:31-04:00

Where is the inventory of all this bought ammo? It would be enough if I knew the closest city, depot, state, etc of the storage location or locations. Maybe this info is out there, but I don't see it widely talked about. If the government is truly buying the ammo, then at some point the inventory will be bursting at the seams somewhere -- like a greedy worker wishing to make a quick buck type of stuff. It would give me a whole lot more comfort knowing that the esteemed officers and gentlemen of the various armed forces were keeping an eye out for this inventory. The U.S Military is one of the few areas of the government that actually works well!