What is ISIS's global strategy?

Institute For The Study of War — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 12:07:37 -0400

The United States currently faces multiple national security threats in an environment of growing disorder. ISIS is executing a sophisticated global strategy that involves simultaneous efforts in Iraq and Syria, the Middle East and North Africa, and the wider world. Homegrown terrorism is increasing in the U.S. and Europe. Civil wars are intensifying in Ukraine, Yemen, and Libya, while the U.S. attempts to pivot to the Asia-Pacific. In this complex environment, it is difficult for policymakers to discern the consequences of action or inaction even in the near future.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conducted simulation exercises on February 27 and March 16, 2015 to discover the diplomatic and military opportunities and pitfalls likely to arise in the coming months of the counter-ISIS fight. Several developments that ISW predicted during the simulation have already occurred. Identifying these scenarios and opportunities in advance can enable the U.S. and its allies to make better-informed decisions in the long-term.

ISW’s simulation focused on possible outcomes of ISIS’s regional activity. The anti-ISIS coalition is currently focused on ISIS only within Iraq and Syria. Therefore the U.S. is vulnerable to strategic surprise resulting from ISIS’s external activity. ISIS has the potential to pressure and divert allies that are critical to the U.S.-led coalition’s efforts, while continuing its own expansion program. Simulating the effects of ISIS’s endeavor in advance revealed insights that will assist in the creation of a coherent counter-ISIS strategy, rather than a piecemeal strategy formulated as crises occur.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

- ISIS likely will expand regionally and project force globally in the medium term.

- Few countries are willing or able to counter ISIS as a global phenomenon. No simulation participants took multi-front action to limit ISIS’s regional expansion, even though most participants opposed ISIS. This was true even of al Qaeda.

- Avoiding or delaying action against ISIS will not necessarily preserve strategic options in the future. Instead, U.S. strategic options may narrow as adversaries grow in strength and potential allies suffer losses and turn to other partners. Participants did not consider that smaller, early action might prevent the need for more drastic steps later on. Simulation participants expressed concern about overreach and unwittingly playing into sectarian conflicts. However, participants did not recognize that their inaction might also play into those conflicts.

- The military planners in the simulation perceived that the United States does not have enough armed forces to undertake a multi-theater campaign to degrade and defeat ISIS on its own. The U.S. therefore must choose between increasing its armed forces, relying on coalition partners to achieve the defined mission, or changing the defined mission against ISIS.

- The U.S. must define the global counter-ISIS mission, and then determine the nested objectives for ISIS and each of its affiliates in support of that mission.

- In the absence of an explicit strategy to counter ISIS’s regional expansion, the U.S. and its allies likely will rely on stable and semi-stable states, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. In both simulations the U.S. team’s implicit long-term strategy was to contain regional chaos as best possible through these partners, rather than adopt a campaign against extremist groups directly.

- ISIS has an asymmetric advantage because it can project force from disparate regions, potentially exploiting fissures between multiple international organizations and U.S. combatant commands.

- ISIS’s Near Abroad and Far Abroad campaigns likely will exacerbate cleavages amongst European actors, leading to interstate and intrastate divergences on security approaches and prioritization of threats.

- Turkey, Russia, and Egypt each have a disproportionate ability to spoil or facilitate counter-ISIS strategies devised by the U.S.

- The U.S. risks strategic failure even if ISIS does not attempt coherent action across global fronts. The campaigns of ISIS’s affiliates and supporters across multiple regions may distract and divide the U.S.’s allies and resources, as may other conflicts such as the one in Ukraine.

- ISIS’s global campaign likely will increase policymakers’ tolerance of frequent, high-level, and widespread violent events, creating opportunities for the United States’ adversaries.

- The U.S. and its allies cannot conduct counter-ISIS operations without considering the context of other extremist forces in the region. A strategy focused on ISIS alone likely will allow other radical actors to thrive.

READ MORE AT: http://understandingwar.org/report/isiss-global-strategy-wargame

Response by SGT Roberto Mendoza-Diaz made Jul 21 at 2015 12:09 PM

SGT Roberto Mendoza-Diaz — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 12:09:05 -0400

World Domination... I guess.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 21 at 2015 12:13 PM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 12:13:20 -0400

To quote Brain prom pinkie and the brain, "try to take over the WORLD!".... And establish a worldwide caliphate, institute sharia, and kill all the infidels and malcontents that don't approve of them and their beliefs.

Response by SCPO David Lockwood made Jul 21 at 2015 12:30 PM

SCPO David Lockwood — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 12:30:37 -0400

Complete CHAOS world wide! The Apocalypse!

Response by COL Ted Mc made Jul 21 at 2015 12:36 PM

COL Ted Mc — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 12:36:45 -0400

The simplest summary of "What ISIS Wants" is - to be left alone to run their corner of the world the way that they want to run it.

The actual leadership of ISIS can have no delusion that ISIS (with its 20,000 members) is actually capable of "running the whole world and it's 7,220,000,000,000 people.

The rhetoric of "Islam will inevitably triumph." is the same as the rhetoric of "Communism will inevitably triumph.".

The actual leadership of ISIS will be quite content to take over enough territory to enable themselves to live in luxury and provide for a well funded retirement at the "Old Crooks and Dictators Retirement Lodge".

Do I believe that there are NO members of ISIS who actually believe in the rhetoric? Don't be silly - of course there are, and the actual leadership of ISIS is always on the lookout for such easily programmable, self-propelled, self-guided, weapons systems.

Response by COL Mikel J. Burroughs made Jul 21 at 2015 1:17 PM

COL Mikel J. Burroughs — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 13:17:16 -0400

What I really don't like about publications like this that you can go get on the network and download is, so can the enemy. If I were the enemy I would be studying this material day and night to find out where all the weaknesses are and exploit them on a regular basis. So they war game some scenarios and those have already taken place in the real world - no kidding. I think from now on we should just provide a welcome mat and a roadmap to our next national strategy to thwart of potential threats in the future (or) is this our way of feeding misinformation? Let’s tell them more about how we: “the military planners perceived that the United States does not have enough armed forces to undertake a multi-theater campaign to degrade and defeat ISIS on its own.” Maybe I'm just overthinking it. Well, I think its time to call my competitor in the business world and tell them what I'm planning to introduce into the market next month and see how that goes over!

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 21 at 2015 1:25 PM

MSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 13:25:14 -0400

Quran (2:191-193) - "And kill them wherever you find them, and turn them out from where they have turned you out. And Al-Fitnah [disbelief or unrest] is worse than killing...
but if they desist, then lo! Allah is forgiving and merciful. And fight them until there is no more Fitnah [disbelief and worshipping of others along with Allah] and worship is for Allah alone. But if they cease, let there be no transgression except against Az-Zalimun (the polytheists, and wrong-doers, etc.)"

Response by Capt Brandon Charters made Jul 21 at 2015 1:37 PM

Capt Brandon Charters — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 13:37:28 -0400

This map is pretty stunning to see the current reach of ISIS and objectives they are trying to achieve. I know ISW has some real intel experts behind the scenes putting this information together. Thanks for sharing this with our community. I think this content brings real value to our members looking to learn more about world events that can impact the future direction of their deployments and military career.

Response by Sgt Kelli Mays made Jul 21 at 2015 1:55 PM

Sgt Kelli Mays — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 13:55:41 -0400

I believe ISIS doesn't just want to stay in their little part of the world...they want to expand and be an empire of the whole world...they won't stop till we or someone else stops them and puts and end to it. They'll keep going and going and going till they have killed all infidels and crammed Islam down everyone's throats....they would change the whole world into a third world world...we will be living in ancient times again....women will have no rights...they will be rapped and beaten...everything will be under sharia law. ISIS and others like them need to be stopped. This needs to be nipped in the bud now before it's too late and gets to far out of hand...

Response by SGT Jeremiah B. made Jul 21 at 2015 4:45 PM

SGT Jeremiah B. — Tue, 21 Jul 2015 16:45:32 -0400

I think one of the best analysis I've seen of ISIS points out that it's a bit of a doomsday cult. ISIS wants to drag the US into a ground war. One it thinks it will lose in a very specific location in Syria, thus meeting the Islamic criteria for the end times.

Response by PO1 William "Chip" Nagel made Jul 22 at 2015 6:19 AM

PO1 William "Chip" Nagel — Wed, 22 Jul 2015 06:19:06 -0400

Wreak as much Havoc as Possible and reap the rewards and I'm sure they have plenty of talented people in Cyber Warfare and Information Warfare or more Precisely Propaganda to do just that and Lord Knows Xenophobics in this Country make their job so much easier.

Response by PO1 John Miller made Jul 23 at 2015 7:22 AM

PO1 John Miller — Thu, 23 Jul 2015 07:22:15 -0400

What I DO know is that ISIS is capable of launching domestic attacks in the US. 4 Marines and 1 Sailor would be able to attest to that if they were still alive!

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 10 at 2015 1:04 PM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Mon, 10 Aug 2015 13:04:30 -0400

I just Read "The Third Target" by Joel C. Rosenburg. This book describes a pretty good possibility of their intentions.

Response by CPT Joseph K Murdock made Apr 4 at 2016 3:03 PM

CPT Joseph K Murdock — Mon, 04 Apr 2016 15:03:00 -0400

ISIS Global Strategy is to use any forms of violence for empirical games. They created an army sized organization to fight in Syria, Iraq, and Kurdistan. However, at the end of the year we expect ISIS to be defeated and a lot smaller.

Response by CPT Joseph K Murdock made Apr 7 at 2016 1:21 PM

CPT Joseph K Murdock — Thu, 07 Apr 2016 13:21:04 -0400

They will devolve from an imperialistic organization to one of terrorism.