What is the consensus on a near-peer threat engaging us within the next decade?

2019-12-08T11:10:50-05:00

Mutually assured destruction stops the ball from rolling, or the largest scale multi-domain fight the world has ever seen? Interested to know what the community feels is our likelihood of the 3rd world war.

Response by Sgt Private RallyPoint Member made Dec 8 at 2019 12:32 PM

2019-12-08T12:32:46-05:00

Our military needs to be prepared to fight when called on to do so. I do not see WWIII happening.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Dec 8 at 2019 2:53 PM

2019-12-08T14:53:30-05:00

It appears to be more likely than it did during the last 20 years. The briefings now have more balance of power stuff than the terror networks that we've gotten used to.

Response by MAJ Private RallyPoint Member made Dec 8 at 2019 4:53 PM

2019-12-08T16:53:37-05:00

3rd world war? Unlikely. Near peer engagement? Equally unlikely. Long term cold wars? Most likely. Because of technology and the interlinking economic / technological relationships between the most powerful countries in the world, all out conflict virtually assures mutual collapse and overall collapse of society as we know it. The Chinese and the Russians love to saber rattle, but they both know that if they take things too far, they will affect themselves negatively as much, if not more, than they affect their "enemies." The Chinese are more likely to play the long game to achieve their will than the Russians, who want some sort of return to Soviet "greatness" within the next twenty years. The problem with the Russians, is if they want to get to the US, they first have to deal with the former republics who would play wars of attrition with them in Eastern Europe. Then while engaging in that madness, they have to deal with a combined US / European effort to keep them bottled up in Russia. Most likely scenario, is that the Lithuanians and the Polish will make Russia pay dearly for trying to expand their territory. Russia knows this, so their future plans remain somewhat unpredictable. Putin has promised a return to Russian greatness within his own lifetime, so even though the long game really makes more sense for them, they will probably do something rash in Eastern Europe within the next decade. This is one reason why Defender 2020 is one of the highest priorities of the Army right now.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Dec 10 at 2019 11:00 AM

2019-12-10T11:00:32-05:00

SGT Private RallyPoint Member there's a reason we are currently engaged in an "economic war" with one of our near peer threats as we speak. Honestly, I think they are our only, truly, near-peer. China has the technology, but is running out of money. Russia has more money (mainly because they don't mess around too much in the global economy when compared to China), but their tech isn't at the same level as China's.
That's not to say we're miles ahead of them. They are both very near-peer in their own way, but I don't think they are either fully near-peer in all aspects.
I would rather suffer through an economic war than a physical war. To quote one of the greatest movies ever, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia."