What is the "Win-Loss" ratio of OPFOR against Rotational Units at the CTCs (JRTC, NTC, etc.)?

2023-02-19T14:33:08-05:00

I heard the other day that "Geronimo" at the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) remains UNDEFEATED. Is this true? If not, what is their "Win-Loss" ratio against rotational units?
What is the Opposing Force (OPFOR) "Win-Loss" ratio against rotational units at the other Combat Training Centers (i.e. National Training Center, Joint Multinational Readiness Center)?

In other words, how often did the OPFOR succeed in preventing the Rotational Unit from achieving their assigned Mission, Task, and Purpose?

(Be advised: not interested in "Learning is Winning," "Homefield Advantages," "Winning is not the purpose of the CTC rotation," "OPFOR Cheats," etc... Just need the win-loss ratio of OPFOR against Rotational Units.)

Response by SFC Casey O'Mally made Feb 19 at 2023 5:27 PM

2023-02-19T17:27:43-05:00

I know you said this isn't what you are interested in, but I have to ask what you define as winning?

I have done three rotations through JRTC and two through NTC. I have done countless rotations through "lesser" training exercises on both red and blue teams. And I can tell you that each and every time, the mission focus and purpose was at least a little bit different.

The couple times I was on the red team, I had one where our ROE were to be as sneaky and underhanded as possible. Lie, cheat, steal, deceive, wear "civilian" clothing, create insider threats, you name it. Our goal was to help the unit identify as many security holes as we could. And we did. We "won" because we achieved our mission which was unit readiness. They won because they identified the holes and fixed them. We also killed more of them than they did of us. But they killed ALL of us. So who "won?"

My other ROE was to be very conventional. Always uniformed, standard weapons, no civilian targets, etc. To fight like the US fights. We managed to do some damage, including taking out two mission critical resources. But they held their ground and ultimately took the objective, even if they took heavier than projected casualties. So we killed more than we should have, including mission critical assets. But they o
ultimately took the objective. So again, who "won?"

Response by LTC Jason Mackay made Feb 19 at 2023 8:26 PM

2023-02-19T20:26:56-05:00

The NTC OPFOR definition of a win was at least 1 MRB on the OBJ at change of mission in the 90s. Not sure what that looks like now.
The NTC Leadership was always sensitive to NOT publish this data.

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 20 at 2023 4:10 AM

2023-02-20T04:10:54-05:00

I honestly haven't really heard of this. At the infantry School we had plenty of LPD from JRTC. From what I understand they are more concerned about stressing your systems. The better you are at fighting the harder they become. They will push as far as a system collapse. From what I heard lately there has been a huge disconnect from the BDE command intent and the implementation at the platoon level. The inability of mission command to unify for their mission objectives at the ground level left a lot of room for error. In theory, even if the platoons won their fights they would be out of line with their sequencing and cause the battalion to lose. They would win the battle and lose the war. In my 20 years I have never heard of a unit that "won" JRTC or NTC. I have been there 3 times so far and we took a beating.

Response by SGM Mikel Dawson made Feb 20 at 2023 6:36 AM

2023-02-20T06:36:29-05:00

I know this is not what you want, but to me everyone who goes to JRTC, NTC, etc comes back a winner. The clear objective is not to win or loose, but learn where the weaknesses are and how to better fight as a unit. So in this respect, every unit going there comes back the winner.

Response by CSM Darieus ZaGara made Feb 20 at 2023 7:34 AM

2023-02-20T07:34:21-05:00

Having served as the CSM over training in Europe, including the JMRC and participated in multiple senior leaders conference regarding all aspects of the training centers and their operations. I never saw any official statistics. The OPFOR had their own gage for discerning a win but that was an internal thing.

The only thing I would recommend is that you contact the Ops SGM for each center and ask.

Although you said you didn’t want to hear it; the OC’s frequently inject stressors on the unit in session, such as taking out key leaders, disabling a vehicle for poor maintenance checks etc., providing intel to the OPFOR in order to see where the unit needs more depth. So, the OPFOR can never truly claim a win, the only winner is the unit.

When we deployed our OPFOR to Afghanistan they had all of the same issues and struggles that regular tactical unit had during a rotation.

Good luck in your search.

Response by CSM William Everroad made Feb 20 at 2023 8:54 AM

2023-02-20T08:54:36-05:00

LTC John Wilson, I understand your question, but your constraints make answering difficult like others have indicated in their response. Your best answer will have to come from the folks who run the exercises.

Every OPFOR has the capacity to say they are "undefeated". The point of these exercises is not to have the training unit show up, do a couple of missions, and "succeed". It is to stress the command systems, planning, execution, and evaluate the adaptability of units. Individual units may "win" their portion, but did BDE and DIV "win"?

Sure, if an unprepared unit shows up, they are going to get rolled up pretty easily. But for trained and ready units, OPFOR scales the challenge. They have the answers to the test. The OPFOR is not operating in the blind.

Response by SGT Chris Padgett made Feb 20 at 2023 11:09 AM

2023-02-20T11:09:11-05:00

I cannot give a win/loss ratio, and not sure they would give it up if asked, but.......
I do know for a fact that if you manage to get the upper hand on them, they will halt the exercise, and tell you how you are violating a rule or just accuse you of cheating.
Never mind the fact they were cheating or "using the situation to their advantage".
Publicly I was scolded, privately I was told that was some "ooooha shit I pulled back there".

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 20 at 2023 9:14 PM

2023-02-20T21:14:11-05:00

Something else I didn't know. Huge list, for real.

Response by SGM Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 20 at 2023 9:47 PM

2023-02-20T21:47:31-05:00

If someone was actually keeping score I wouldn't be surprised to find that the OPFOR is "undefeated".
The reason why it seems like it's impossible to "win" at a Training Center is because it is literally designed for you to not "win" at a Training Center.
The Army isn't shelling out $25 million+ per rotation just to see if you can win a stand up fight against a near peer. And it would tell you next to nothing if that's what it was about; you beat a near peer unit in a clinical, canned scenario.
Unfortunately, that's just a de facto expectation of your unit.
And the real thing is way too ambiguous and fluid to test with a canned scenario.
And because the real thing is way to ambiguous to teach and train with just some doctrine and a canned scenario, the rotation needs to be designed to test every possible limit of that command and staff to be an effective training and assessment tool.

The "OPFOR" isn't just the kid in the box wearing MILES (that may or may not be turned on). The "OPFOR" includes every OC/T hanging out in your TOC.
And unlike you, where all you have is what you brought into the "box", the OC/Ts are not limited to that. Any inject they throw at you doesn't need to be any more real than the one or two sentences that touched on it in the Road to War scenario.
The purpose of the rotation is to find the breaking point of each of your WfFs, use injects to get you to those breaking points, then allow you to learn how to fix those breaking points and find a way to remain functional and effective.
And the only way to overwhelm your WfFs like that is to "lose" the battle...

And the troops stuck in the box get the benefit of improving their TTPs, and some OC/T led AARs and development.

This of course is only my opinion, based on five rotations, reading their CALL products, and working with folks that did three years at a Training Center.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Feb 20 at 2023 10:45 PM

2023-02-20T22:45:13-05:00

I don't have much skin in the game because I only did one NTC rotation and a specialized JRTC rotation. I am going to make the strong assumption the OPFOR at NTC is intimately familiar with the incredible terrain and their experience will allow them to execute in a manner and tempo that the BLUFOR can't match.

Response by CW3 Kevin Storm made Feb 23 at 2023 1:55 PM

2023-02-23T13:55:13-05:00

I am dating myself here, but I have heard that OPFOR has a fair share of losing if the unit is well trained and prepared. THat was back in the 1990's. I also saw OPFOR not do so well against NG SEB units when the Guard Unit was in the defensive position (think that was 1999 or 2000). As for currently, I don't know.