Who Might Beat Hillary?

2015-08-08T22:40:52-04:00

Stanley Fish Davidson-Kahn Distinguished University Professor and Professor of Law at Florida International University; Floershimer Distinguished Visiting Professor of Law at Cardozo Law School

I watched the debates last night with two questions in mind: Who would give Hillary Clinton a run for her money? And who would be a good and useful vice-presidential running mate?
Both lists are surprisingly short.

Both lists are surprisingly short.
It's easy to name the would-be nominees who wouldn't have a chance against Clinton. Donald Trump's undoubted appeal to a sizable percentage of Republican voters would not be enough to carry him in a general election, especially when half the voters would be women. He would be swamped.
Rand Paul has a quirky attractiveness that is an acquired taste, and and not enough voters will have acquired it. Mike Huckabee will continue to be the darling of the evangelical right, but that's a niche position he now owns; he just reappears, as if from an underground crypt, every four years. Ben Carson has a good personality, a measured way of speaking and a gentle sense of humor, but he's only on the stage because he's a black man critical of President Obama; the Republican base loves that, but it's not enough to fill out a presidential profile.
Ted Cruz radiates anger -- he seems more angry at his own party and its leaders than he is at Clinton or President Obama -- and while anger plays well in the short run, in the long run it turns people off. Chris Christie has experience and a forthrightness of manner that is initially attractive, but his forthrightness too easily turns into bluster and bullying; a few rounds with Clinton would leave him gasping for breath like a beached whale. Scott Walker looks good, has done well in a blue state (as he never tires of saying), and is reasonably articulate, but he has an I'm-not-quite-sure-I-belong-here look on his face, and the two policy positions that set him somewhat apart (at least in the intensity with which he holds them) -- a desire to kill the labor movement and a willingness to let mothers die rather than allow them to abort -- would sink him; Clinton would be licking her lips.
That leaves John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.
Kasich is from Ohio (always a key state), has been successful both as a congressman and a governor, possesses administrative, legislative, budgetary and defense expertise, and comes across as a firm conservative who is not crazy -- no small feat in the Republican landscape. With the right running mate, he could bring together a coalition of fiscal conservatives, ardent Christians, moderate Republicans (there are a few left) and independents, and that might be enough, especially if Clinton stumbles in a big way.
Rubio has the advantage of being young and pretty. If he were to appear with Clinton on a stage, the advantage would be his before either said a word. He also speaks well and seems to know his stuff. He can carry Florida and take away at least some of the Hispanic vote. Again, the selection of a running mate would be key.
Jeb Bush was a very successful Florida governor who could also carry his state; he has a passion for education reform that is undeniably authentic; he has a position on immigration policy that, suitably tweaked, could capture the middle. He has ties, through marriage, to the Hispanic community. He is tall and youthful looking, but he is not young, so he has the aura of maturity. The "dynasty" problem would go away if he ran against Clinton, as it would for her if she ran against him.
Now for the vice-presidential slot. Rubio is everyone's favorite running mate, and he would be Bush's if you could have a ticket made up of two politicians from the same state. Bush isn't going to be anyone's running mate; he's already too big for that, and, besides, a Bush as a vice-presidential candidate would seem to take us back to 1980. Kasich fits well with both men. If he can carry Ohio and the candidate at the top of the ticket can carry Florida, then the electoral map already looks promising for the Republicans.
A case can also be made for Carly Fiorina, who within seconds of the "undercard" debate's conclusion was declared the big winner. Fiorina is an experienced business executive who is well-versed in the various technologies that increasingly dominate our lives. She is of course also a woman, but she's the wrong kind of woman to offset Hillary Clinton, for if one criticism of Clinton is that she is cold, calculating and a little mean, Fiorina is colder, more calculating and meaner; she'd make Clinton look warm and cuddly.
And as for the other possibilities: The candidates who wouldn't fly at the top of the ticket bring the same liabilities to the second spot, and these also-rans on the JV team bring little to the table.
Bobby Jindal looks like a gnome and doesn't even inspire confidence in his own state, where the president's approval rating now surpasses his own. Gilmore and Pataki seem to be there because they have nothing better to do. Santorum seems to be running for the Harold Stassen Chair of Perpetual Candidacy. Rick Perry is improving, but not enough to take a chance on. And if you want to capture the constituency eager to go to war tomorrow, Lindsey Graham is your man.
And so it's either Rubio-Kasich, Kasich-Rubio, or Bush-Kasich (or perhaps Senator Portman); and in the event of any of those Republican tickets, it will be Clinton-Sherrod Brown..

Response by SFC Joe S. Davis Jr., MSM, DSL made Aug 8 at 2015 10:45 PM

2015-08-08T22:45:25-04:00

Well for beginners its too early, but if I was a betting person I would go with Vice President Joe Biden for the Democratic Nomination and on to the White House. He would face Jeb Bush in my opinion.

Response by SCPO Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 8 at 2015 10:46 PM

2015-08-08T22:46:12-04:00

Somebody, anybody, PLEASE. Truth is, she may beat herself with all her skullduggery!!!

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Aug 8 at 2015 10:47 PM

2015-08-08T22:47:14-04:00

Who might beat Hillary Clinton? That's easy. Hillary Clinton. She did it before. She blew an overwhelming lead in the battle for the nomination in 2008 to lose it to Barack Obama and she didn't have the FBI nipping at her heels in that race. Now, if you're wondering who might beat her in the general election assuming that she hangs on and takes the Democratic nomination, we'll have to wait and see who she'll be running against. Despite the numerous contenders there may yet be one lurking in the bushes (Oh God, did I just mention Bushes?)...

Response by SPC George Rudenko made Aug 8 at 2015 10:52 PM

2015-08-08T22:52:35-04:00

Trump will steal a good portion of right votes, Hilary wins like it or not. Republicans are divided again, Trumpers, tea party, middle conservatives lol

Response by SGT Anthony Rossi made Aug 8 at 2015 10:55 PM

2015-08-08T22:55:50-04:00

Ben Carson, could beat anyone the Democratic Party chooses. He is more qualified than President Obama, and trustworthy. He just needs enough exposure and he can easily win the presidency

Response by Capt Seid Waddell made Aug 8 at 2015 11:00 PM

2015-08-08T23:00:17-04:00

Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden could beat her.

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 8 at 2015 11:28 PM

2015-08-08T23:28:34-04:00

Anybody at this stage of the game!

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 8 at 2015 11:30 PM

2015-08-08T23:30:05-04:00

Rubio-kasich

Response by CSM Michael J. Uhlig made Aug 8 at 2015 11:46 PM

2015-08-08T23:46:16-04:00

She already did....did we forget Benghazi? What about "the foundation" and the way decisions were swayed.....are we that forgetful as a country......are we willing to cave and give our country away?

Response by SGT Jeremiah B. made Aug 9 at 2015 1:38 AM

2015-08-09T01:38:15-04:00

I agree with that assessment. IF it's Clinton, and I'm not sure it will be, a Bush-Kasich ticket could swing it. I think it's probably the only combination that could pull it off. Both are moderates and Kasich walked away from the last debate looking good. I heard a commentator state that Kasich is "the return of compassionate conservatism," and THAT is what will swing the middle.

Response by PO1 William "Chip" Nagel made Aug 9 at 2015 3:32 AM

2015-08-09T03:32:53-04:00

No One.

Response by LCDR Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 9 at 2015 3:41 AM

2015-08-09T03:41:04-04:00

I'm really not even remotely convinced she can beat Sanders. If he wins the primary, this whole analysis falls apart.

Response by SGT Hector Rojas, AIGA, SHA made Aug 9 at 2015 3:47 AM

2015-08-09T03:47:46-04:00

Rubio might.

All others are too much all over the place.

Response by SSG Richard Reilly made Aug 10 at 2015 10:27 AM

2015-08-10T10:27:56-04:00

This is a sensitive subject for me. I feel like we as American's are going to be stuck with voting for one of two of the biggest turds ever. Hillary v. Trump.....ugh. I don't even blame anyone but Americans for the reason why the presidency is a joke. American's should have to pass a test to vote...and it can be give orally or in writing but you should know something about your government if you get to vote for who runs it.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 10 at 2015 7:04 PM

2015-08-10T19:04:51-04:00

Hillary is her own worst enemy, but she'll get the nomination because it's one of those situations where it's her "turn".

But as for the Republicans who have a chance to beat her? Rubio could give her a run for the money; Bush will almost certainly get the nomination because that's who the business powers want. A Bush-Rubio ticket would be a good team, but as pointed out it is unlikely that they'd both be picked from the same state. Maybe a Bush-Walker ticket. Of course, a lot can happen in a year, so we may yet see another GOP person rise to "veep" level. I bet Nikki Haley would love to give it a shot.

Really, in the GOP field it is still anyone's ballgame. That's what makes it so much fun to watch. It's like a crazy train collided with a clown car.

Response by SSgt Alex Robinson made Aug 10 at 2015 10:36 PM

2015-08-10T22:36:25-04:00

Lets see how things settle out. There is a chance Bernie Sanders could beat her on the dem side.

Response by PO1 John Miller made Aug 13 at 2015 3:30 AM

2015-08-13T03:30:54-04:00

It blows my mind that Hillary is running away with the Democrat polls. I guess people truly don't care that she's a murderer (Benghazi) and criminal (private email server)?

Response by Col Joseph Lenertz made Aug 13 at 2015 8:54 AM

2015-08-13T08:54:48-04:00

Since you mentioned half the voters are women, I'm surprised you didn't cover Carly Fiorina. She is smart, calm, articulate, and could go "woman-o a woman-o" with Clinton. And it removes a large portion of Clinton's base attraction (first woman president). Many think Fiorina won the first debate. I'd like a Fiorina-Walker or Fiorina-Rubio ticket. No dynasty, no skeletons.

Response by SP5 Joel O'Brien made Aug 13 at 2015 9:20 AM

2015-08-13T09:20:37-04:00

It's thoughtful discussions like this that have me wishing for the ability to vote for President and Vice-President separately. That will never happen though.

Response by SSG Warren Swan made Sep 3 at 2015 2:07 PM

2015-09-03T14:07:14-04:00

Got my vote!!!

Response by SSG Richard Reilly made Sep 4 at 2015 3:51 PM

2015-09-04T15:51:55-04:00

Monica Lewinsky...:O

Response by SSG Stephen Arnold made Sep 4 at 2015 7:23 PM

2015-09-04T19:23:38-04:00

Somebody should beat Hillary.

Oh, you meant...nevermind.

Response by GySgt Wayne A. Ekblad made Sep 5 at 2015 11:31 AM

2015-09-05T11:31:09-04:00

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday.

Read more at ...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-beats-hillary-head-to-head/ar-AAdXQUs

Poll: Trump beats Hillary head-to-head

The survey finds Trump with 45 percent support and Clinton with 40 percent.

Response by GySgt Wayne A. Ekblad made Sep 5 at 2015 11:51 AM

2015-09-05T11:51:42-04:00

Response by GySgt Wayne A. Ekblad made Sep 5 at 2015 12:06 PM

2015-09-05T12:06:04-04:00

Pretty much says what needs saying ...

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 6 at 2015 6:01 AM

2015-09-06T06:01:44-04:00

The FBI will beat Clinton, I hope.

Response by CSM Carl Cunningham made Sep 6 at 2015 5:46 PM

2015-09-06T17:46:59-04:00

Hillary is the only answer to this.

Response by SPC David S. made Sep 8 at 2015 3:47 PM

2015-09-08T15:47:59-04:00

At this point I'd go with the FBI. However there is no prohibition from a felon running for or holding the office.

Response by SA Harold Hansmann made Sep 8 at 2015 4:39 PM

2015-09-08T16:39:14-04:00

Hopefully Bill will.
Lol

Response by CW5 Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 9 at 2015 12:22 AM

2015-09-09T00:22:25-04:00

Good analysis. My answer to the question of who might beat Hillary? Nobody. She's going to be our next president. And I'm saying that as a conservative who wishes that were not true.

Response by SrA Edward Vong made Sep 9 at 2015 2:36 PM

2015-09-09T14:36:28-04:00

Looks like Sanders is climbing up in the ranks on the Democrat side. We shall see.

Response by SPC Andrew Griffin made Oct 7 at 2015 1:05 PM

2015-10-07T13:05:12-04:00

Bernie Sanders is gaining Momentum! He has a Chance!

Response by PO1 Kenneth Cardwell made Feb 17 at 2016 10:19 AM

2016-02-17T10:19:58-05:00

Only Senator Rubio can beat Hillary! He is young and a fresh face for the country and that's what the country needs. He is my first choice, but if he fails, the Clinton is the only options because the rest of the field is unacceptable!

Response by SSgt Robert Dant made May 12 at 2016 1:05 AM

2016-05-12T01:05:35-04:00

How while beat HRC - a lot of smart voters. We as veterans can now way accept a Commander in Chief who would not send support to Benghazi, who knew she placed highly classified documents in a public server, who has been willing to go after women who have been dominated by her husband.

We veterans are one class who should know none of this is okay.

So I think she has already beaten herself by being a person who demonstrates she thinks she is above the law.

HRC let me tell you "WHY IT MATTERS" - three of my brothers and an Ambassador was attack and killed on US soil. Simple - they matter!