Will a future POTUS attack the Chinese mainland in a future war?

LTC Bink Romanick — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 11:39:17 -0400

Developers of US strategy are discussing the complex issue of whether or not to attack a nuclear armed China, in event of a war. The conundrum is will such a strike provoke a nuclear response?@

http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/the-real-problem-with-strikes-on-mainland-china/

@ Spc Abdul

Response by LTC Bink Romanick made Aug 4 at 2015 11:43 AM

LTC Bink Romanick — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 11:43:11 -0400

I say

Response by SGM Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 4 at 2015 11:53 AM

SGM Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 11:53:47 -0400

Nukes are supposed to be a deterrent; under MAD concepts of Mutually Assured Destruction, we hope not. US also has long standing policy of "no first use" but likely massive retaliation--once the source is confirmed. Thus Space is the high ground to note launches and intercepts. Making security and protection of Space assets critical for a myriad of reasons. A more likely scenario is an NBC threat by low level rogue entities, with or without a national sponsor.

Response by SMSgt Thor Merich made Aug 4 at 2015 12:34 PM

SMSgt Thor Merich — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 12:34:03 -0400

If it came down to that we would be in a sorry state indeed. I would say that only under extreme circumstances. Currently, we are not equipped to fight an equal adversary. The military build up would have to be immense before we could even think about it.

Response by COL Ted Mc made Aug 4 at 2015 12:54 PM

COL Ted Mc — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 12:54:57 -0400

LTC Bink Romanick - Colonel; If the Chinese leadership feel threatened by the potential outcome of an actual attack then the Chinese leadership will use all weapons at its command to negate the effectiveness of that attack.

This might include "defensive nukes" against the actual invading forces on Chinese territory, and/or "defensive nukes" against the support vessels for the actual invading forces on Chinese territory, and/or "defensive nukes" against the supply/staging areas for the actual invading forces on Chinese territory and/or the follow on troops, and/or "defensive nukes" against the sources of supply for the actual invading forces on Chinese territory and/or the follow on troops, and/or "defensive nukes" against command and control points for the actual invading forces on Chinese territory and/or the follow on troops.

One interesting tactic which the PLA could use would be to allow the invading forces to land, unopposed, and then simply nuke them out of existence on Chinese soil.

The political ramifications when the government of the invading country has to tell its population that it has lost 100% of the invading force would NOT be something any rational person would want to have to deal with.

Anything less that an actual invasion would have international political ramifications which would be equally obnoxious.

Response by COL Jean (John) F. B. made Aug 4 at 2015 1:31 PM

COL Jean (John) F. B. — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 13:31:19 -0400

LTC Bink Romanick - Maybe I am missing something in the question... If the war is with China, why would we not attack? Do we simply stand by and have a war with a country that we never attack?

There is certainly a risk of a nuclear war when one or more countries possess nuclear weapons. While the US has a stated policy of no first-strike use of nuclear weapons, does anybody think that we would not use them first if our country's survival was at stake?

Response by CW3 Stephen Bacon made Aug 4 at 2015 1:38 PM

CW3 Stephen Bacon — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 13:38:56 -0400

Are these the same strategist currently formulating our national defense policy and handling the Middle East/Isis?

Response by SGT Jeremiah B. made Aug 4 at 2015 2:03 PM

SGT Jeremiah B. — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 14:03:06 -0400

I suspect a war with China would be one of physical containment with economic and digital attacks being the primary "mainland" assault. A conventional attack on mainland China would be insanity anyway. They can't arm them all, but they could field a loyal defense force roughly the size of the entire population of the US in a pinch. We simply couldn't carry enough bullets and would probably lose on attrition alone.

None of that matters anyway. China, from a cultural standpoint, would probably not hesitate to use nuclear weapons. They would not suffer defeat lightly and I wonder if they'd tolerate an invasion at all, even if they're going to win. Hell, I'm not sure ANY nuclear nation would act otherwise, which is a big reason none of us have fought each other in open warfare since Korea.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 4 at 2015 3:46 PM

LTC Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 15:46:13 -0400

I believe that China is more likely to neutralize itself internally rather than us trying to neutralize the threat. China is a fragile state in my opinion that is heavy populated in the littoral regions. With 1/3 of the world's population in the subcontinent area (India to China), the next issue will be water rights to the water off the Himalayan Plateau.

Response by PO1 William "Chip" Nagel made Aug 4 at 2015 8:58 PM

PO1 William "Chip" Nagel — Tue, 04 Aug 2015 20:58:21 -0400

I hope not but any Posturing wouldn't surprise me. Anymore the US and China being so economically tied to each other any "Attack" would be disastrous for Both.

Response by COL Mikel J. Burroughs made Aug 5 at 2015 7:35 AM

COL Mikel J. Burroughs — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 07:35:54 -0400

LTC Bink Romanick For the sake of mankind and world let's hope that we never see this in our lifetime my friend. I don't think it would end good for anyone.

Response by SSgt Alex Robinson made Aug 5 at 2015 8:03 AM

SSgt Alex Robinson — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 08:03:38 -0400

It's more likely a cyber attack than an actual attack.

Response by MSG Brad Sand made Aug 5 at 2015 9:41 AM

MSG Brad Sand — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 09:41:58 -0400

I think Vizzini in the Princess Bride stated in best:

Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha. [Vizzini stops suddenly, his smile frozen on his face and falls to the ground dead]

The most famous classic blunder is never get involved in a land war in Asia.

Response by SPC George Rudenko made Aug 5 at 2015 5:01 PM

SPC George Rudenko — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 17:01:02 -0400

I am going to say conditionally yes, but not in the textbook way. It's a cyber war, and thus cyber attacks. China represents one of the biggest cyber threats to us, and I am sure we will be active in engaging these entities whether they are state sponsored or not.