Will Iraq follow the "Yugoslavia model"?

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 24 Jun 2014 09:10:07 -0400

With the increasing sectarian violence in Iraq, will we soon see a partitioned Iraq? How many different states will we see? Would a Shiite 'Southern Iraq' become a protectorate of Iran? A Vassal? Just how threatened would Turkey be by an independent Kurdish state? What other dynamics would change in and around the Arabian Peninsula and Levant regions?

Response by LTC David S. Chang, ChFC®, CLU® made Jun 24 at 2014 3:34 PM

LTC David S. Chang, ChFC®, CLU® — Tue, 24 Jun 2014 15:34:50 -0400

This is a great questions. I remember ten years ago when someone suggested splitting Iraq up but it was met with disdain. looking back now, it was worth at least researching a little bit. The concern is that there are a lot of countries in the same boat. If Iraq goes this route, then minority populations in other countries could ask for the same thing, further destabilizing world politics (look at Africa!).

I believe this is what many people fear. Turkey as you mentioned has a large Kurdish population, Turkey is afraid that the Kurds instead of moving would want part of Turkey to also leave the country. I don't think there is an easy answer!

Response by SGT Ben Keen made Jun 24 at 2014 4:00 PM

SGT Ben Keen — Tue, 24 Jun 2014 16:00:33 -0400

The country has always been three different states, at least in belief. I remember rolling through out of Kuwait and into Iraq and seeing how the three different areas differed so much when it came to attitude, and things like that. I wouldn't be surprised to this the country take on three distinct boarder lines within the area that Iraq holds now. Is that the smartest move, probably not. That country truly uses the different areas to help support it's support itself. The oil fields in the south help run the farm vehicles in the north.

Response by 1LT Shawn McCarthy made Jun 26 at 2014 11:01 PM

1LT Shawn McCarthy — Thu, 26 Jun 2014 23:01:32 -0400

You have a nation that was built for western convenience.
Partitioning might work better, as long as peace could be maintained between the groups.
The problem is, the decision over new borders would probably not be mutual, and that might start the first war among the new nations...and that might last for...well...Korea.