Army recruits with marijuana histories and behavioral health issues not riskier

U.S. Army recruits with a documented history of marijuana or behavioral health conditions are not riskier and, in some cases, perform better, according to a data analysis released March 11.

Beth J. Asch, lead author of the Army-requested Rand Arroyo Center study, “An Empirical Assessment of the U.S. Army’s Enlistment Waiver Policies,” told RallyPoint that the findings provide commanders with the “ability to make a more accurate assessment” of risk when issuing waivers from Army enlistment standards, which are the basic qualifications to serve.

Assessing performance among Army applicants

Based on Army regulation 601-210, the standards cover categories including age, aptitude, character and conduct, and drug and alcohol use. The waiver authority is granted, the Rand analysis says, so the Army “does not unnecessarily disqualify applicants who could be successful.”

According to the study, waivers are granted to an average of just 15% of the 60,000-70,000 recruits in a given year.

Although used sparingly, the waiver authority often draws outsized scrutiny, from the media, external observers and others. According to the study authors, waiver policy changes can generate concern “among policymakers about the lowering of enlistment standards in the Army and the potential for a ‘hollow force’ that is significantly less effective” than at earlier points in history.

Changing social trends impact applicant pool

Yet Army waiver and conduct policies change throughout history, as society changes. Rand cites one example from 2015, when the Army loosened its own conduct standard on tattoos.

Rand’s new analysis looks at two more recent social trends impacting the Army applicant pool: a growing number of states expanding legalization of marijuana, and the rising prevalence in children of behavioral health diagnoses such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression.

With this in-depth analysis, Asch said, the Army now has long-term data to strengthen its waiver-assessment approach.

Researchers looked at potentially “millions” of records, she said, analyzing 12 years of data from fiscal 2001-2012, in the first known review of waiver workflow information from the U.S. Army Human Resources Command. Key findings in the report include:

Waivered recruits with marijuana histories or behavioral health conditions were not more likely to have bad outcomes than similar recruits and sometimes, the historical analysis showed, performed better.

There are not yet indicators that state expansion of marijuana legalization laws changed recruit outcomes, for better or worse.

Increasing waivers of any type — including for marijuana history or behavioral health condition — would not appreciably change the performance of a new-recruit group and could improve that cohort’s performance. But, the authors conclude, “any changes are relatively small.”

Improving recruitment and education

Asch said the analysis provides commanders with guidance on how to offset “performance-related outcomes” among waivered recruits: Find candidates that also score well on their Armed Forces Qualification Test in categories I-IIIA, have Tier 1 education status (e.g., a high school diploma) and are age 22 or older.

These three traits “fully or partially mitigated the higher likelihood of adverse effects related to performance or misconduct,” the authors say.

Public education is also needed to counteract what Asch said is the sometimes “fundamental misunderstanding of what waivers mean,” noting that they’ve long helped determine eligibility for military service.

“The Army should create, disseminate, and use a clear definition that highlights that all waivered recruits are qualified and eligible to enlist,” the analysis says, “even if they do not meet every enlistment standard, and that the enlistment standards allow for waivers.”

Learn more

Download both the full document and a synopsis of the Rand Arroyo Center analysis: https://rly.pt/3s2q3I3