Is it possible for a newly commissioned officer (via ROTC) in the ARNG to go AD if someone in his class recycles?

I would make this recommendation: learn about ADSW/ADOS Orders. Take as many of those assignments as possible and try to get a conditional release to Active Duty without burning a bridge.

This is news to me but if someone recycles at BOLC then they just go to the next class and go to their unit after. You have to assess active duty to get active duty. If you took the minuteman scholarship it’s solely up to your state if you go Active Duty.

Hopefully some of the S1 types will comment on this, but overall this sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me. Your best bet to go AD would be to see if you can opt out of the Minuteman Scholarship. If this is an option you would likely have to pay back whatever money you've received so far. You'll probably ruffle some feathers as well. The other option would be to seek a conditional release after commissioning. It can be done, but you'll have to be released by your state. I personally know 2 ARNG Officers who have transferred to AD in the last 18 months. Having taken a scholarship it is unlikely they'll do so, but not impossible.

Another option you could consider is the AGR program. Typically you need to be at least a CPT before you enter the program, so there would be a delay in eligibility for you. However, it is active duty for all intents and purposes short of which section of US code you fall under.