The Tropical Storm has met up with a broad Low Pressure area and
by appearances not impressive except to say that the impressiveness
is a good thing. However not so fast, as these systems navigate
around the Bermuda High, it will be a big problem with regards
to torrential downpours, storm surges and still some higher
winds. It is really the intrusion from an open center of drier air
which stops the system from going all out and strengthening and
that happening is not really in the cards. Thankfully.

Louisiana is like tornado alley for Tropical weather with
New Orleans sea level at 7 feet.

The next major reports come out at around 11P.M. Eastern.
000
WTNT23 KNHC 062045
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL [login to see] UTC SAT JUN 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 90.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 315SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 90.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 90.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

WTNT43 KNHC 062046
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

Cristobal continues to lack the appearance and structure of a
typical tropical cyclone. In fact, the large radius of maximum
wind and convective bands well removed from the center are more
characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. Based on earlier Air
Force Hurricane Hunter observations, the maximum winds are about 45
kt. The central pressure has held steady during the last couple of
fixes of the aircraft mission, suggesting no significant
strengthening since this morning. Since the system is not well
organized and is likely to continue to ingest some more dry air,
only a little more strengthening is expected until landfall. The
official intensity forecast is unchanged and remains close to the
model consensus.

The cyclone remains on track and is moving northward, or 360/10 kt.
The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. The system should
continue northward between two mid-level anticyclones until it
nears the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, a slight building of
a ridge to the northeast should induce a turn toward the
north-northwest. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical cyclone should
accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough.
Thereafter, the global models suggest that the system should merge
with an extratropical cyclone near the Great Lakes. The official
track forecast is in good agreement with the dynamical model
consensus and is also close to the latest GFS solution.

Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it
makes landfall. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact
forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall
will extend well away the center.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm
surge remains possible in other portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the
northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well
in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center.

3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today,
spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf
Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday.
This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams,
especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf
Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW