Posted on Jun 15, 2020
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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4
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VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA,
CALIFORNIA, NEVADA AND NEW MEXICO.
WE DO HAVE WIND WARNINGS IN EXCESS OF 50MPH
IN SOME AREAS AND WHERE IT IS DUSTY, IT
CAN BE A BOTHER.

LOCAL RAINSHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES.


.SYNOPSIS...A Red Flag Warning and a Wind Advisory have been issued
for much of northern Arizona on Tuesday, as winds again strengthen.
Slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms continue over portions of
eastern Arizona today and possibly Tuesday, but little rainfall is
expected. Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy weather is expected from
Wednesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Yet another deep and cold low will drop into the mean
trough position and move toward Washington State tonight, then eject
through southern Idaho Tuesday and into Montana on Wednesday. This
means more windy and dry days for us, the windiest day developing on
Tuesday.

Limited mid-level moisture in eastern Arizona has led to isolated
high-based convection in southern Apache county this afternoon. This
should clear out this evening, with only a very slight chance of
redevelopment over the same area Tuesday afternoon.

With this nearly continuous pattern of warm, windy and dry weather,
the daily fire weather threat remains high, with Red Flag conditions
developing on Tuesday, due to the stronger winds. A Wind ADvisory is
also in effect for much of the same area Tuesday afternoon.

The trough relaxes by the weekend and we should should see much less
wind by the Friday/Saturday time frame. However, any fires that are
still burning will become susceptible to rising temperatures and
lowering humidity as a ridge builds over the south United States by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions are
expected across northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Areas of
smoke from area wildfires will be possible through the period. Isold
-SHRA/-TSRA east of a KRQE-KSOW line until 02Z. SW winds 10-15G25KTS
will become lighter after 03z. SW winds will redevelop after 16Z
Tuesday, becmg 15-25KTS with local gusts to 40KTS. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Tuesday
due to strong southwest winds and low humidity. Isolated high based
convection is forecast for the White Mountains this evening, and
again Tuesday. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible
again on Wednesday, in east-central Arizona.

.Thursday through Saturday...Dry weather with breezy southwest
winds each afternoon are expected for this period.



ARIZONA METEOROLOGIST LARRY OLSON JUNE 15TH 2020 GMT 2345 EASTERN LOCAL 19:21 7:21
Casa Grande, AZ. CLEAR 7 MISSING MISSING 97 36 11% WINDS XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX GUSTING MISSING 30.02 XXXXXX
Chandler, AZ. CLEAR 7 (122-73) (106-68) 104 35 9% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 16MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.83 XXXXXX
Davis-Monthan, AZ FAIR 7 (104-73) (102-71) 103 34 9% WINDS WESTERLY 17MPH GUSTING 40MPH 29.90 XXXXXX
Douglas, AZ. XXXXX WINDS GUSTING xxxxx XXXXXX
Deer Valley, AZ. CLEAR 7 (100-71) (100-69) 99 34 10% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 16MPH GUSTING 21MPH 29.87 XXXXXX
Tucson, AZ. CLEAR 7 (106-72) (102-72) 103 37 10% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 16MPH GUSTING 25MPH 29.92 XXXXXX
Las Vegas/IAP,NV FAIR 7 (90-74) (94-72) 97 29 9% WINDS SOUTHERLY 12MPH GUSTING 24MPH 29.84 XXXXXX
Tucson, AZ. CLEAR 7 (104-72) (102-72) 103 37 10% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 16MPH GUSTING 25MPH 29.92 XXXXXX
Tuscon/Mara, AZ. CLEAR 7 (105-72) (102-73) 105 41 11% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 11MPH GUSTING 25MPH 29.75 XXXXXX
Glendale, AZ. FAIR 7 (102-81) (102-79) 102 33 9% WINDS CALM CALM GUSTING xxxxx 29.85 XXXXXX
Goodyear, AZ. FAIR 7 (102-81 (102-81) 102 36 10% WINDS NORTH-NORTHWEST 9MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.80 XXXXXX
Bullhead, AZ. FAIR 7 (99-79 (100-72) 100 38 11% WINDS SOUTHERLY 21MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.79 XXXXXX
Kingman, AZ. CLEAR 7 (103-62) (92-59) 94 24 8% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 21MPH GUSTING 35MPH 29.98 XXXXXX
Dagget BarstowCA CLEAR 7 (88-63) (93-59) 99 35 11% WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST 9MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.83 XXXXXX
Chandler Air, AZ. CLEAR 7 (122-73) (106-68) 102 41 12% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 12MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.83 XXXXXX
Luke AFB, AZ. CLEAR 7 (102-73) (101-67) 101 30 8% WINDS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 7MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.82 XXXXXX
Yuma MCAS, AZ. CLEAR 7 (99-76) (97-69) 100 42 13% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 22MPH 29.78 XXXXXX
St. George, Air, UT CLEAR 7 (90-67) (91-64) 96 27 8% WINDS WESTERLY 15MPH GUSTING 25MPH 29.88 XXXXXX
Death Valley, CA CLEAR 7 (100-80) (106-78) 108 35 8% WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 19MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.94 XXXXXX
Phoenix, AZ. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 (104-80) (104-73) 105 33 8% WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.77 XXXXXX
Imperial Air, CA. PARTLY CLOUDY 7 (98-74) (97-66) 102 36 10% WINDS SOUTHERLY 21MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.76 XXXXXX
Blythe Airport, CA. CLEAR 7 MISSING MISSING 102 30 8% WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 13MPH GUSTING 21MPH 29.76 XXXXXX
Safford, AZ. CLEAR 7 (98-76) (102-77) 104 44 13% WINDS NORTHERLY 7MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.90 XXXXXX
Scottsdale, AZ. FAIR 7 (104-83) (104-74) 105 33 8% WINDS SOUTHERLY 10MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.77 XXXXXX
Buckeye, M Air AZ CLEAR 7 (102-73) (102-68) 102 33 9% WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 5MPH GUSTING 12MPH 29.81 XXXXXX
Sun City, AZ CLEAR 7 (106-83) (104-76) 102 33 8% WINDS NORTHERLY 7MPH GUSTING xxxxx 29.79 XXXXXX


Current conditions at
Las Vegas, North Las Vegas Airport (KVGT)
Lat: 36.21205°NLon: 115.19395°WElev: 2188ft.

Clear
100°F
38°C

Humidity 7%
Wind Speed S 16 MPH
Barometer 29.79 in (1008.81 mb)
Dewpoint 29°F (-2°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 94°F (34°C)
Last update 15 Jun 03:53 PM PDT


Detailed Forecast
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 98. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 69. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 18 to 23 mph becoming west northwest 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 94. North northwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 68. West wind 6 to 8 mph becoming north after midnight.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 98.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 71.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 100.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 73.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 103.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 75.
Sunday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 105.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 76.
Monday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 106.


Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
133 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2020

.Critical fire weather conditions over portions of the after this
afternoon, but will expand Tuesday as more widespread gusty winds
develop. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for portions of
southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.

AZZ101-102-NVZ [login to see] 00-
/O.CON.KVEF.FW.W.0014.200616T1800Z-200617T0300Z/
Lake Mead NRA/Colorado River-AZ side-
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-
Clark and SW Lincoln County Deserts/Las Vegas Dispatch-
Lake Mead NRA/Colorado River-NV side-
133 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2020 /133 PM MST Mon Jun 15 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/
TO 8 PM PDT /8 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 101, 102, 465, AND 466...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Arizona...Fire weather zone 101 and 102. In
Nevada...Fire weather zones 465 and 466.

* TIMING...11 AM PDT/MST to 8 PM PDT/MST Tuesday.

* WIND...Southwest winds 20 to 30 MPH with gusts 35 to 40 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
248 PM MST Mon Jun 15 2020

AZZ004-006-007-009>015 [login to see] 00-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.WI.Y.0011.200616T1800Z-200617T0300Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
Including the cities of Jacob Lake, Fredonia,
Grand Canyon Village, Supai, North Rim, Valle, Keams Canyon,
Kaibito, Canyon De Chelly, Chinle, Kayenta, Window Rock, Ganado,
Wupatki N.M, .Tuba City, Winslow, Holbrook, Snowflake, St. Johns,
Springerville, Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park, Navajo N.M.,
Dilkon, and Kykotsmovi
248 PM MST Mon Jun 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Much of northern Arizona along and north of the Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains, as well as northwest of Flagstaff to
the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust and sand possible
east and northeast of Flagstaff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
337 PM MST Mon Jun 15 2020

AZZ104>116-137>140-160645-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0011.200616T1800Z-200617T0300Z/
Kaibab Plateau (Fire Weather Zone 104)-
Marble and Glen Canyons (Fire Weather Zone 105)-
Grand Canyon Country (Fire Weather Zone 106)-
Coconino Plateau (Fire Weather Zone 107)-
Yavapai County Mountains (Fire Weather Zone 108)-
Northeast Plateau And Mesas Hwy 264 Northward (Fire Weather Zone
109)-Chinle Valley (Fire Weather Zone 110)-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau (Fire Weather Zone 111)-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County (Fire Weather
Zone 112)-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County (Fire Weather Zone
113)-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County (Fire Weather Zone
114)-Western Mogollon Rim (Fire Weather Zone 115)-
Eastern Mogollon Rim (Fire Weather Zone 116)-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins (Fire Weather Zone 137)-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons (Fire Weather Zone 138)-
Black Mesa Area (Fire Weather Zone 139)-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264 (Fire Weather Zone
140)-
337 PM MST Mon Jun 15 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Locations near Buffalo Pass, Camp Verde,
Chinle, Chino Valley, Congress, Cottonwood, Dilkon, Doney
Park, Eagar-Springerville, Flagstaff, Forest Lakes, Fredonia,
Ganado, Grand Canyon, Heber-Overgaard, Holbrook, Jacob Lake,
Kayenta, Kykotsmovi, North Rim, Page, Paulden, Prescott,
Prescott Valley, Saint Johns, Sedona, Seligman, Shonto,
Snowflake-Taylor, Tuba City, Valle, Williams, Window Rock and
Winslow. This includes portions of the Apache-Sitgreaves
National Forest, Coconino National Forest, Kaibab National
Forest, Prescott National Forest and Tonto National Forest.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that starts has the potential to spread
rapidly under these weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring or are imminent. A combination of strong
winds and low relative humidities can contribute to extreme fire
behavior.

Please notify field crews of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/flagstaff


https://www.weather.gov/fgz/
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Responses: 2
Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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You're making me glad I chose Florida over New Mexico when I retired from the military Larry!
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
SSgt (Join to see)
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen AND Arizona and Nevada are even worse. I had my cousin who retired in Henderson, NV. It is like he retired and used his initials. I found him as S.D. Kline, his name was Stanley D. Kline. I helped my mother in locating where he was. He was an LTC and a commander and then just was gone, so-to-speak. This is part of the family tree. MOH winner in the Civil war. Ah history. Russell was an ace. I feel small about that stuff.
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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SSgt (Join to see) Sounds like a great family tree.
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SP5 Mark Kuzinski
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Thanks and good evening Larry.
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