Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Areas affected...Kansas...Northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260825Z - 261425Z

Summary...Thunderstorms redeveloping with a surge in elevated
instability will likely lead to more widespread convection early
this morning and potentially some flash flooding over already
saturated soils.

Discussion...As of 08z, GOES-16 IR imagery showed convective
clusters redeveloping over the Oklahoma panhandle and southwest
Kansas per recent cooling cloud tops. KDDC radar imagery shows
more convection developing as well with precip rates starting to
increase up to and slightly over 1".

This activity is forming on the gradient of the elevated
instability, which is surging back into the outlook area. Time
trend analysis shows MUCAPE has increased from 500 to 1500 J/kg in
the area over the last several hours, and the latest RAP forecasts
indicates this trend to continue for a few more hours. With 40 to
45 kts of 850 mb moisture convergence bringing around 1.2 to 1.5"
PWs, storms will be capable of producing moderate to locally heavy
rainfall. Storms will likely move to the east/northeast as the
nose of the instability gradient lifts north/east as well.
Initially hi-res guidance was handling this activity poorly but
the last few runs of the HRRR is beginning to match reality, and
the consensus of the models paint between 1-2" across
south-central Kansas into portions of southeast Kansas through
about 15z. Some localized higher amounts up to 3" will be possible.

While storms will likely be a bit more progressive and likely not
train over any specific location for very long, it will fall on
extremely saturated soils where the recent flash flood guidance is
extremely low (1-hr values less than 0.5" in south-central KS). As
such, while confidence in the evolution of these convective
clusters is slightly below normal, the antecedent conditions alone
suggest flash flooding will be possible even with scattered

SUPERCEDES FRIDAY'S Discussions!

DALLAS HOT BUT ALSO FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THERE ON SUNDAY

Flood Warning
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
551 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...

Walnut River at Winfield affecting Butler and Cowley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don`t drown.

&&

KSC [login to see] 51-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0099.000000T0000Z-190530T1727Z/
/WFDK1.3.ER.190521T0155Z.190522T1530Z.190530T0527Z.NO/
551 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Walnut River at Winfield.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 5:46 AM Sunday the stage was 32.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 34.5 feet by
early Monday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early
Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 30.5 feet...Flood waters cover sections of Highway 77
north of Winfield and the road under Highway 77 bridge south of
town.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
Location STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed
Winfield 18.0 32.3 Sun 06 AM 34.5 32.3 24.3

&&

LAT...LON 3745 9696 3731 9697 3713 9687 3713 9703
3727 9709 3745 9709

$$




Flood Warning
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...

Walnut River at Augusta affecting Butler and Cowley Counties.

Walnut River at Winfield affecting Butler and Cowley Counties.

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...

Walnut River at Arkansas City affecting Cowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don`t drown.

&&

KSC [login to see] 40-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-190528T1500Z/
/AGAK1.2.ER.190525T0111Z.190525T1900Z.190528T0300Z.NO/
241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Walnut River at Augusta.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 2:00 AM Sunday the stage was 27.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Flooding of secondary roads as well as
flooding of parts of the railroads south of Augusta will occur.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
Location STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed
Augusta 23.0 27.2 Sun 02 AM 24.3 21.4 17.3

&&

LAT...LON 3771 9687 3759 9696 3745 9696 3745 9709
3765 9705 3776 9695

$$


Flood Warning
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...

Whitewater River at Towanda affecting Butler County.

Whitewater River at Augusta affecting Butler and Cowley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don`t drown.

&&

KSC015-262139-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0126.000000T0000Z-190528T0733Z/
/TOWK1.2.ER.190525T0123Z.190525T1130Z.190527T1933Z.NO/
239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Whitewater River at Towanda.
* Until late Monday night.
* At 1:30 AM Sunday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.9 feet by this
evening. The river will fall below flood stage early Monday
afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Flooding over cropland becomes more
widespread. County roads flood at Southwest 40th Street on low
spots near the river about 2 miles downstream of gage and along
Southwest 60th Street just west of Fulton Road near the river
located 4 miles south of Towanda. Further downstream 5 miles south
of Towanda expect flooding across Southwest 70th.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
Location STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed
Towanda 22.0 23.7 Sun 01 AM 24.0 15.0 9.5

&&

LAT...LON 3794 9698 3774 9695 3774 9707 3794 9709


$$


Flood Warning
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...

Whitewater River at Towanda affecting Butler County.

Whitewater River at Augusta affecting Butler and Cowley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don`t drown.

&&

KSC [login to see] 39-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-190527T2100Z/
/AGSK1.2.ER.190525T0254Z.190525T2031Z.190527T0900Z.NO/
239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Whitewater River at Augusta.
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 2:16 AM Sunday the stage was 25.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Flood waters begin to flow over Southwest
70th Street just to the east of the river bridge loacted 3 miles
northwest of Augusta and also across Southwest 60th Street near the
river bridge located about 4 miles northwest of town.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
Location STG STG DAY TIME Mon Tue Wed
Augusta 21.0 25.9 Sun 02 AM 20.8 17.9 11.9

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9695 3765 9699 3765 9706 3774 9707


$$




Flood Warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1039 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

KSC001-009-015-017-019-035-049-073-077-079-095-099-115-125-133-155-
159-173-19 [login to see] 30-
/O.NEW.KICT.FA.W.0064.190525T1539Z-190528T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilson KS-Labette KS-Neosho KS-Montgomery KS-Reno KS-Butler KS-
Marion KS-Kingman KS-Barton KS-Sumner KS-Woodson KS-Greenwood KS-
Allen KS-Elk KS-Cowley KS-Sedgwick KS-Harvey KS-Chase KS-Harper KS-
Rice KS-Chautauqua KS-
1039 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...
Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
Reno County in south central Kansas...
Butler County in south central Kansas...
Marion County in central Kansas...
Kingman County in south central Kansas...
Barton County in central Kansas...
Sumner County in south central Kansas...
Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...
Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
Allen County in southeastern Kansas...
Elk County in southeastern Kansas...
Cowley County in south central Kansas...
Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...
Harvey County in south central Kansas...
Chase County in east central Kansas...
Harper County in south central Kansas...
Rice County in central Kansas...
Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT Monday.

* Significant flooding ongoing across the area.

* At 1031 AM CDT, widespread flooding continued across a large
portion of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. One to
five inches of rain has fallen in this area over the past 24
hours, which has exacerbated ongoing flooding from heavy rains
over the past week. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through
tonight, with continued and worsening flooding expected.

* This is a serious flooding situation with no immediate end in
sight. Areas that have not yet flooded may soon as additional
rainfall moves over the area this evening. Areas will flood that
do not normally flood. Roads may be damaged or impassable. Water
will enter some homes and businesses. Please closely monitor water
levels in your area as rain moves back in and please heed road
closures and statements from local officials.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Wichita, Hutchinson, Derby, Newton, Great Bend, El Dorado, Arkansas
City, Winfield, Andover, Haysville, Parsons, Coffeyville,
Independence, Augusta, Chanute, Wellington, Park City, Valley
Center, Bel Aire and Mulvane.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 0 and 42.
Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 1 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9835 3738 9835 3739 9846 3826 9847
3826 9903 3870 9903 3870 9848 3852 9848
3852 9793 3817 9792 3817 9737 3861 9737
3861 9693 3852 9693 3852 9636 3817 9636
3817 9596 3804 9596 3804 9508 3700 9507

$$

Martin



Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wichita KS
826 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...Additional thunderstorms through mid-morning, and again late
this evening through tonight...

KSZ069-270330-
/O.CAN.KICT.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-190526T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KICT.FF.A.0008.190526T1326Z-190527T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Butler-
Including the cities of El Dorado, Augusta, Andover,
and Rose Hill
826 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of South Central Kansas, including the following
area, Butler.

* Through Monday morning.

* Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through about
mid-morning, with another round of thunderstorms this evening
through tonight. High rainfall rates and associated flash
flooding will be possible with any of this activity.

* Rapidly rising water can wash cars away and quickly flood
homes. In addition to the flash flood threat, rivers and creeks
will quickly rise, exacerbating the ongoing flooding.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Remember to turn around, don`t drown. You should monitor later
forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood
warnings be issued.

&&

$$


Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning
KSC015-035 [login to see] 45-
/O.NEW.KICT.FF.W.0037.190526T1251Z-190526T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wichita KS
751 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Cowley County in south central Kansas...
Southeastern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...
Southern Butler County in south central Kansas...
Eastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1145 AM CDT.

* At 751 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Derby, Arkansas City, Winfield, Mulvane, Rose Hill, Douglass, Belle
Plaine, Oxford, Udall, Burden, Dexter, Atlanta, Geuda Springs,
Rock, Cambridge, Maple City, Winfield City Lake and Strother Field
Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 1 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9736 3759 9728 3760 9719 3750 9652
3700 9653

$$

BUTLER



Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning
KSC015 [login to see] 00-
/O.NEW.KICT.FF.W.0035.190526T1202Z-190526T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wichita KS
702 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...
Butler County in south central Kansas...
Southern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1100 AM CDT.

* At 702 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Rose Hill, Eureka, Towanda, Benton,
Whitewater, Leon, Howard, Potwin, Severy, Elbing, Fall River,
Latham, Rosalia, Climax, Santa Fe Lake, El Dorado State Park and
Eureka Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 55 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9715 3809 9714 3781 9596 3740 9596

$$

MCGUIRE



Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
421 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
421 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through about mid-
morning across the region. Large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Additional heavy rainfall is likely, which may
lead to localized flash flooding.

Another round of thunderstorms will impact the region mainly late
this afternoon through tonight, with the greatest chances generally
along and west of the Flint Hills corridor. The greatest potential
for severe weather will be across central, north-central and south-
central Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Additional heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is likely.

Widespread river flooding, some of which is significant, will
continue for several days. Additional rainfall will only aggravate
the current situation. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings
for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a conditional threat for a few severe thunderstorms Monday
evening west of I-135. If a storm or two can manage to develop, all
severe weather hazards will be possible.

Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected
Tuesday afternoon and night, generally along and east of I-135. All
severe hazards are once again possible, along with heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding.

Significant and high-impact river flooding will continue well into
next week. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings for the
latest information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this morning, and likely late this
afternoon through the evening. Rainfall and flooding reports are
always appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

$$

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