Posted on Sep 11, 2020
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and
central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of
organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with
wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it
could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida
tonight. But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida,
and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests
there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little bit over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico near a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves
westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf
of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located a few hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is located just off of the west
coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system
moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less
conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

____________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________


Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96°NLon: 82.54°WElev: 26ft.
Overcast
86°F
30°C
Humidity 65%
Wind Speed N 13 mph
Barometer 29.86 in (1011.1 mb)
Dewpoint 73°F (23°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 93°F (34°C)
Last update 11 Sep 4:53 pm EDT

_____________________________________________

This Afternoon
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms
could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a steady
temperature around 85. North northeast wind around 7 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less
than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts
possible in thunderstorms.

_____________________________________________________

Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm,
then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8pm.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77.
East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall
amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch,
except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

_____________________________________________________

Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the
storms could produce heavy rain. High near 89.
Heat index values as high as 97. East wind 6 to 10 mph,
with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters
of an inch possible.

_____________________________________________________

Saturday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2am,
then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2am.
Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 76.
East wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 80%.

____________________________________________________________

Sunday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then
showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm.
Some of the storms could produce heavy rain.
High near 89. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with
gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

_____________________________________________________

Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm,
then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8pm.
Some of the storms could produce heavy rain.
Low around 77. East southeast wind around 6 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 80%.

_______________________________________________________

Monday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers
likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy,
with a high near 90. East southeast wind around 7 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.

_________________________________________________________

Monday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm,
then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8pm.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Light east southeast wind.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.

_____________________________________________

Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 60%

___________________________________________________

Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60

________________________________________________________

Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny,
with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

_______________________________________________________

Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy,
with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%

____________________________________________________

Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Partly sunny, with a high near 91.

__________________________________________________
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
__________________________________________________

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
135 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

FLZ050-151-155-160 [login to see] 30-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FA.A.0002.200911T1800Z-200914T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinellas-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-
Including the cities of Venice, Englewood, Bradenton, Punta Gorda,
Anna Maria Island, Sarasota, Cape Coral, St. Petersburg, Westchase,
Clearwater, Port Charlotte, Apollo Beach, Captiva, Largo, Tampa, and
Sanibel
135 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of southwest Florida and west central Florida, including
the following areas, in southwest Florida, Coastal Charlotte and
Coastal Lee. In west central Florida, Coastal Hillsborough,
Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota and Pinellas.

* Through Sunday evening

* A tropical wave over the Bahamas is expected to move across the
south central Florida peninsula tonight and then into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Abundant tropical moisture associated
with this feature will bring increasing rain chances to the area
tonight and into the weekend with some very heavy rainfall
possible which may lead to flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
______________________________________________________________

Special Marine Warning
GMZ830 [login to see] 15-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0192.200911T2138Z-200911T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
538 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM...
Tampa Bay waters...
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 538 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 nm southeast of Hillsborough Bay to 11 nm
southeast of Tampa Bay to near Terra Ceia Bay to near Siesta Key,
moving west at 15 knots.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Expect wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, suddenly higher
waves, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Make sure
all on board are wearing life jackets.

* Locations impacted include...
Terra Ceia Bay, D5 Reef, Manatee Nearshore Reef, Howard Frankland
Bridge, Madeira Beach Reef, Longboat Key, Venice Inlet, Cockroach
Bay, Md1 Reef, M7 Reef, Anna Maria Island, M8 Reef, M17 Reef,
Pass-A-Grille Channel, Southwest Channel, D6 Reef, M1 Reef, Tampa
Bay, Hillsborough Bay and M6 Reef.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
__________________________________________________________________

FLORIDA
Sebring Regional Airport, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH AND NORTHWEST/
CLIMO 08-10 85/74 85/75 88/74 4 78 93%
WINDS EASTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.84 XXXXX/

_____________________________________________________________________

Winter Haven/Gilbert Field A,FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/
VISIBILITY 2 1/2 MILES/RAIN AND FOG/
LIGHTNING DISTANT ALL DIRECTIONS/
RAIN BEGAN 2016/ RAIN 0.05 INCHES/
CLIMO 08-10 93/77 90/78 92/76
84 77 90%
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 7MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.88 XXXXX/

________________________________________________________

Gainesville Regional Airport, FL.
OVERCAST SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST/ RAIN ENDED 2011/ RAIN.25INCHES/
CLIMO 08-10 89/74 88/73 91/.73
79 76 90%
WINDS EASTERLY 3MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.94 XXXXX/

_____________________________________________________
Ft. Walton Bch, Hurlburt Air, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/
VISIBILITY
7MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 91/81 94/72 92/73
91 74 57%
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 9MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.92 XXXXX/

_______________________________________________________________

Jacksonville Internationa Air, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/
VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 89/75 87/74 89/75
86 76 72% WINDS EASTERLY 14MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.92 XXXXX/

__________________________________________________________

Tyndall AirForce Base, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS VICINITY/
RAIN BEGAN 1859/ ENDED 1901/
THUNDERSTORM BEGAN 1859Z/ ENDED 1819/
RAIN 0.07/ CLIMO 08-10 92/78 94/75
89/75 82 76 84%
WINDS CALM GUSTING XXXXX 29.92 XXXXX/

_______________________________________________________

Pensacola International Air, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 90/80 93/76 93/75
85 78 80%
WINDS VARIABLE 5MPH GUSTING
XXXXX 29.94 XXXXX/

________________________________________________

Tallahassee International Air, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS
VICINITY/ LIGHTNING NORTHEAST AND EAST
AND WEST/ RAIN BEGAN 1902Z / RAIN
ENDED/ CLIMO 08-10 92/78 90/75 92/76
85 75 72%
WINDS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 15MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.93 XXXXX/

__________________________________________________________________

Valparaiso/Eglin AFB, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/
VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 91/81 94/72 92/73
90 72 57% WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 7MPH
GUSTING XXXXX 29.9 XXXXX/

________________________________________________________

Cocoa Beach/Patrick AFB, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/
VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT
WEST/
CLIMO 08-10 86/82 88/77 89/77
87 74 66%
WINDS EASTERLY 14MPH GUSTING
XXXXX 29.86 XXXXX/

________________________________________________

Cross City Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST, SOUTH AND NORTHWEST/
CLIMO 08-10 92/75 91/74 93/75
79 77 94%
WINDS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 3MPH GUSTING
XXXXX 29.93 XXXXX/

______________________________________________________

Homestead Air Force Base, FL.
CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
THUNDERSTORM VICINITY/ THUNDERSTORM BEGAN 2117Z/ ENDED
2132Z/
CLIMO 08-10 88/79 88/76 89/75
84 76 77% WINDS EASTERLY 5MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.80 XXXXX/

_________________________________________________________

Lakeland Regional Airport, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHT DISTANT ALL DIRECTIONS/
CLIMO 08-10 88/75 90/75 91/75
86 73 66%
WINDS EASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.87 XXXXX/

___________________________________________________________

Tampa/MacDill Air Force BaseFL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
THUNDERSTORM AND RAINSHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY/
KMCF CLIMO 08-10 91/76 89/76 90/75
87 77 74%
WINDS NORTHERLY 6MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.84 XXXXX/

_______________________________________________________________

Marathon Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 86/76 90/76 90/78
86 78 77%
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.80 XXXXX/

___________________________________________________________

Keywest Naval Air Stn Airport,FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
CB (THUNDERSTORM)
NORTHEAST/
CLIMO 08-10 93/85 93/76 86/76
90 75 62%
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.80 XXXXX/

___________________________________________________________

St. Petersburg Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH AND NORTHWEST/ CLIMO 08-10 92/77 91/76 93/78
85 79 82%
WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
12MPH GUSTING XXXXX 29.85 XXXXX/

__________________________________________________________

Tampa International Airport, FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
TOWERING CUMULUS (RAINSHOWER) OVERHEAD/
CB (THUNDERSTORM) DISTANT NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST/
CLIMO 08-10 92/78 91/78 91/77
86 73 65% WINDS NORTHERLY 13MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.86 XXXXX/

______________________________________________________

Keywest International Airport FL
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 89/84 90/76 89/75
90 76 64%
WINDS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 8MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.81 XXXXX/

_____________________________________________________

Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7
MILES/
CLIMO 08-10 87/82 88/75 90/75
87 76 70%
WINDS EASTERLY 17MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.84 XXXXX/

_____________________________________________

Miami International Airport, FL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTHWEST/ CB (THUNDERSTORM)
SOUTH THRU WEST MOVING SOUTHWEST/
CLIMO 08-10 89/82 89/76 88/76 8
86 75 70%
WINDS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.80 XXXXX/

_________________________________________________

Brooksville/Hernando Airport, FL
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING NORTHEAST AND EAST/
CLIMO 08-10 92/77 92/76 91/74
79 76 90%
WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 10MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.89 XXXXX/

_______________________________________________

Okeechobee County Airport. FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
LIGHT DISTANT NORTH AND
SOUTH/
CLIMO 08-10 84/75 89/72 81/73
88 75 66% WINDS EASTERLY 5MPH GUSTING XXXXX
29.82 XXXXX/

_______________________________________________
_______________________________________________

Cocoa Beach/Patrick AFB, FL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT WEST/
Cross City Airport, FL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT NORTHEAST, SOUTH AND NORTHWEST/
Homestead Air Force Base, FL. CLEAR SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ THUNDERSTORM VICINITY/ THUNDERSTORM BEGAN 2117Z/ ENDED 2132Z/
Lakeland Regional Airport, FL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHT DISTANT ALL DIRECTIONS/
Tampa/MacDill Air Force BaseFL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ THUNDERSTORM AND RAINSHOWERS IN THE VICINITY/
Marathon Airport, FL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
Keywest Naval Air Stn Airport,FL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ CB (THUNDERSTORM) NORTHEAST/
St. Petersburg Airport, FL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTH AND NORTHWEST/
Tampa International Airport, FL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ TOWERING CUMULUS (RAINSHOWER) OVERHEAD/ CB (THUNDERSTORM) DISTANT NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST/
Keywest International Airport FL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/
Miami International Airport, FL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING DISTANT SOUTHWEST/ CB (THUNDERSTORM) SOUTH THRU WEST MOVING SOUTHWEST/
Brooksville/Hernando Airport, FL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHTNING NORTHEAST AND EAST/
Okeechobee County Airport. FL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES/ VISIBILITY 7 MILES/ LIGHT DISTANT NORTH AND SOUTH/




Tuesday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely
and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny,
with a high near 90.

______________________________________________________


East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Responses: 4
Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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First time I've seen a pop up storm liked that.
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Col Carl Whicker
3
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Thank you, Larry.
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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PO2 Builder
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I'm watching closely.
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