Pollster Says Many Have the Presidential Race Wrong

From the story: Jim Lee with Susquehanna Polling and Research isn’t some hair-on-fire conservative, he’s just looking at the numbers. He says that the race right now in the Thunderdome-like state of Pennsylvania is a “dead heat,” but believes that if turn-out trends continue, Donald Trump will win a second term (Twitter). Trafalgar Group has Trump up 2 in Michigan, 9 points more favorable to Trump than any other poll the past two weeks (Trafalgar). Many are criticizing the Trafalgar Group results. The head, Robert Cahaly, explained why his results are different (WSJ). From Erick Erickson on Georgia: In Georgia the GOP tends to get slightly more than the RCP polling average shows. Right now the average is tied, which suggests a GOP win, but barely. Also, the percentage of the vote that is black is < 30%, which tends to indicate a weak election for GA-Dems. Still 4 days though (Twitter). The percentage of voters who refuse to say who they are voting for has increased in Wisconsin (National Review). From Byron York on his Pennsylvania experience: There is a pro-Trump movement that has grown up organically in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state in the 2020 election. All on their own, without the help of the campaign or the Republican Party, devoted Trump supporters are organizing for what they believe will be a Trump victory (Washington Examiner). A snapshot of 2016 just under a week out compared to 2020 at the same time. It’s just a snapshot (not a RCP average) but if accurate, shows Trump is closer now than then (Twitter). But the RCP average is wider now (RCP) than then (RCP) as the double-digit leads in the polls ended in 2016 after October 24. They are still popping up in 2020.