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1SG Civil Affairs Specialist
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Edited 6 y ago
I was discussing this at drill this past weekend, and that it looks increasingly likely that we will intervene there. I postulated that it isn't really about oil or humanitarian issues per se, but rather the specter of over 3 million displaced persons (so far) looking for a place to go. It isn't hard to imagine a western hemisphere version of Syria materializing (without ISIS and some of the other issues, but humanitarian-wise), with the USA serving as a substitute for Europe as a refugee magnet. This would be anathema for the Trump administration and justify an intervention.

Such an operation would be a quick kinetic one to eliminate any Maduro loyalists followed by a Rule of Law mission to bring the pirates that have been plundering the countries oil wealth to justice. If we are smart, less than a year in duration - I suspect Venezuelan justice will be swift. One question to be asked is where exactly did all that money go? Surely not in the Venezuelan National Bank; they'd want hard currency. I suspect that answer would be very informative.

If I were a Psyop guy, I would be salivating at the prospect of exploiting the image of a quarter of Venezuela's gold reserves leaving the country on a Russian jet. No doubt, Maduro is setting up his asylum strategy for his inevitable fall.
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SPC Erich Guenther
SPC Erich Guenther
6 y
You have to be careful here because the Venezuelan army like the army of Grenada in 1983 is infiltrated by Cuban secret police. Even if the Venzuelans collapse the Cubans will fight because they know what their familes face back in Cuba if they don't. So that was one lesson learned from the invasion of Grenada. Grenadians collapsed but some of the Cuban units fought fiercely because they had nothing to lose. They knew if captured the United States would velvet glove treat them and they knew if they didn't fight the Cuban government would make them pay dearly upon return home.
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1SG Civil Affairs Specialist
1SG (Join to see)
6 y
SPC Erich Guenther - Indeed, although I think it is more likely that the military leaders have been paid handsomely under the table to ensure their loyalty, and that they are going to be the die-hards with nothing to lose that would give any intervention force a hard time. The terrain there would definitely make for a hard fight if it came to that.
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1SG Civil Affairs Specialist
1SG (Join to see)
6 y
PFC Adam Craig - It went somewhere, and it isn't to the common folk. My money is on Switzerland.
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SSgt Terry P.
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1SG (Join to see) Maduro doesn't look to have missed any meals and just wants to hold on to his position.Doesn't care if the people starve.
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1SG Civil Affairs Specialist
1SG (Join to see)
6 y
No, he doesn't look hungry at all.
He looks to be insulated from the realities in the country.
Watching that interview, I wonder if he really believes that it is all yankee propaganda.
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Capt Jeff S.
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Socialists need scapegoats to take the blame for their stupid ideas and crappy performance. GW was Obama’s GOTO Blame recipient. Far be it that Left Wing Socialists own up to their mistakes when it is so much easier and politically expedient to blame others.
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1SG Civil Affairs Specialist
1SG (Join to see)
6 y
I don't know that scapegoating is unique to Socialists, but the point is valid.
After all, the term dates back to sacrificial animals in the Old Testament.
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