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Does crisis beckon in the Black Sea? Could Russia and Nato even come to blows?
That - at least for now - is probably unlikely. But the recent seizure of two Ukrainian gunboats and a tug in the approaches to the Kerch Strait, by vessels of the Russian Border Guard, has inevitably brought security in the Black Sea to the forefront of Nato's agenda at their meeting in Brussels on Tuesday.
The Black Sea has long had strategic significance.
That - at least for now - is probably unlikely. But the recent seizure of two Ukrainian gunboats and a tug in the approaches to the Kerch Strait, by vessels of the Russian Border Guard, has inevitably brought security in the Black Sea to the forefront of Nato's agenda at their meeting in Brussels on Tuesday.
The Black Sea has long had strategic significance.
Nato's dilemma in the Black Sea
Posted from bbc.com
Russia
Ukraine
Posted 6 y ago
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I am absolutely convinced that if U.S. forces engaged the Russians on the battlefield, it would be a very one-sided affair with the Russians doing very, very poorly. Can't believe that Putin doesn't know that. So I'm not sure what he's up to, but I do think he intends to avoid a U.S. fight. If he is correct in assuming that he can do this without the U.S. responding militarily, then I suppose that might increase the likelihood of further Russian encroachment into Ukraine.
Everyone disagrees with me on this, but I think the US should have done more when the Georgia/Ossetia thing was happening in 2008 than just set a humanitarian force as a "trip-wire." I think that was perceived as timidity and hesitation. Maybe I'm channeling Gen. Striker from Dr. Strangelove, but I would have (yes, I'm "armchairing" here - sue me) put a maneuver brigade in Tblisi or something similar to that (back in 2008 I'm talking still). I wouldn't have intervened directly in Ossetia or along that border, but I would have put combat troops on the ground in key locations in the nation of Georgia to demonstrate a willingness to fight if the Russians kept coming.
I understand the theory that Putin does stuff in order to provoke behavior that he paint as evidence of a Western conspiracy against Russia, but it also important to show that the West is absolutely willing to fight in order to stop another progression similar to that of the late 1930s and early 1940s when Hitler kept pushing and pushing and the Allies didn't push back until too late.
Ideally, he doesn't invade. But if he does, the best outcome would be for Ukraine to inflict a military defeat on Russian forces, publicly and dramatically - without the US or other NATO member forces having to intervene at all.
Everyone disagrees with me on this, but I think the US should have done more when the Georgia/Ossetia thing was happening in 2008 than just set a humanitarian force as a "trip-wire." I think that was perceived as timidity and hesitation. Maybe I'm channeling Gen. Striker from Dr. Strangelove, but I would have (yes, I'm "armchairing" here - sue me) put a maneuver brigade in Tblisi or something similar to that (back in 2008 I'm talking still). I wouldn't have intervened directly in Ossetia or along that border, but I would have put combat troops on the ground in key locations in the nation of Georgia to demonstrate a willingness to fight if the Russians kept coming.
I understand the theory that Putin does stuff in order to provoke behavior that he paint as evidence of a Western conspiracy against Russia, but it also important to show that the West is absolutely willing to fight in order to stop another progression similar to that of the late 1930s and early 1940s when Hitler kept pushing and pushing and the Allies didn't push back until too late.
Ideally, he doesn't invade. But if he does, the best outcome would be for Ukraine to inflict a military defeat on Russian forces, publicly and dramatically - without the US or other NATO member forces having to intervene at all.
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'Ukrainian naval officer Lt. Roman Mokriak remained loyal to Kiev even as most of the crew of his submarine defected when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Now one of 24 Ukrainian sailors Russia detained after it fired on and captured their ships, he has defied the Kremlin again, refusing to speak with security-service agents or record a video confession, his lawyer said.'
Now one of 24 Ukrainian sailors Russia detained after it fired on and captured their ships, he has defied the Kremlin again, refusing to speak with security-service agents or record a video confession, his lawyer said.'
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tension is high... will NATO respond to the request for aide? That seems to be the million dollar question at the moment. I read elswhere that most of NATO is looking at what pressure they can put on Russia to back down with regards to the Ukraine, will it work?
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