Why a Donald Trump win in New Hampshire would be big

Going into New Hampshire’s Tuesday primary, the poll numbers uniformly suggest businessman Donald Trump is headed for a win, probably a double-digit win. It would not only give Trump his first nominating contest victory, it would indicate that, despite his second-place finish in Iowa, he may have a very long run ahead of him.

To put it simply, New Hampshire should not be a good state for Trump. When you look at his supporters in polls, they tend to have more of a blue-collar look, with lower college education rates and lower incomes, going by data in the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Thirty-eight percent of Trump supporters have no college degree. That same percentage of his supporters earn incomes less than $75,000.

But those numbers don’t square well with the overall population of New Hampshire, which stands out for sitting well above the national average on those counts, according to Census data.