Posted on Jun 8, 2020
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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Meterologist Larry Olson 6:11 PM
WTNT33 KWNH 082101 CCA
TCPAT3
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Tropical Weather System in the Mid-Atlantic has
hardly any chance of being a Tropical Storm due
to an unfavorable environment and the Bermuda
High is helping with that. Sea Surface Temperatures
is added to the mix. Stayed aware that weather
is fluid.

Now we have some very hot temperatures from CA/AZ/TX
to name a few who experience temperatures in the triple
digits. Very hot and humid and I will give a rough
summary through the week. The Mississippi and Missouri
Valleys will be drenched and then as the low moves
East and off the coast, they too will retain some of that
moisture and hence some intense thunderstorms.

Meteorologist Larry Olson
(Mike Scott)
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 29...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Corrected cyclone category for the 36 hour forecast point
...CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF MONROE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect in and near the length of the
Mississippi Valley.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 92.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h) and
this motion is expected to accelerate and become more
north-northeast as Cristobal moves through the Midwest and western
Great Lakes.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening of Cristobal is expected tonight into Tuesday
morning before the low restrengthens as it acquires non-tropical
character Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds are expected to gradually subside over portions
of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds could also occur Tuesday
night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and western Great
Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of around an inch along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana
to the Florida Panhandle, resulting in isolated storm total amounts
of 10 inches. Cristobal will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches from Arkansas to the
western Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may
produce flash flooding, and is forecast to produce isolated
significant river flooding across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi have begun to rise and
are forecast to crest mid-week. New and renewed significant river
flooding is possible across the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across eastern and northern Mississippi, western Alabama,
and western Tennessee.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 34.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 36.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 40.2N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 44.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 49.5N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

LAST ADVISORY ********************* Tropical Depression Cristobal.


Current conditions at
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport (KMOB)
Lat: 30.69°NLon: 88.25°WElev: 217ft.

Overcast

79°F

26°C
Humidity 94%
Wind Speed S 15 G 26 mph
Barometer 29.79 in (1008.5 mb)
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 7.00 mi
Heat Index 83°F (28°C)
Last update 8 Jun 3:56 pm CDT

This Afternoon
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 83. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7pm. Low around 74. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 87. North wind around 5 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 89. North wind around 5 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 90.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 90.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 9

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
418 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.Heavy rainbands, generally west of I-65, will cause the potential
for flash flooding to remain elevated this evening.

ALZ051>053-261-263-265-MSZ067-075-076 [login to see] 30-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-200609T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Mobile Inland-Mobile Central-
Mobile Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Citronelle, Saraland, Mobile,
Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay,
Waynesboro, Beaumont, New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain,
Wiggins, and Lucedale
418 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi,
including the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Choctaw,
Clarke, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, and
Washington. In southeast Mississippi, George, Greene, Perry,
Stone, and Wayne.

* Until 1 AM CDT Tuesday

* Heavy rainbands, generally west of I-65, will cause the
potential for flash flooding to remain elevated this evening.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...

Bayou Sara At Saraland affecting Mobile County.

For the Bayou Sara...including Saraland...Moderate flooding is
forecast.

Additional information is available at http://www.weather.gov.

&&


ALC097-090900-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-200610T1312Z/
/SARA1.2.ER.200607T2340Z.200609T0000Z.200610T0712Z.NO/
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Wednesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
the Bayou Sara At Saraland.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 2:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 6.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 6.2 feet
this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday
morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet, Flooding of residences in the area will
occur.


&&

LAT...LON 3083 8807 3083 8805 3085 8805 3087 8803
3087 8802 3082 8804 3081 8806 3082 8807

$$

JFB



Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

ALC097-129-MSC [login to see] 15-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200608T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mobile AL-Washington AL-George MS-Greene MS-
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MOBILE, SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, EASTERN
GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated additional bands of heavy
rain moving across the warned area. Between 4 and 8 inches of rain
have fallen with very localized amounts approaching 10 inches since
last night. Bands of heavy rain training over these areas will be
capable of producing 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short period of
time. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will result in flash
flooding.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Citronelle, Lucedale, Chatom, Chunchula, Deer Park, Gulfcrest,
Tibbie, Tanner Williams, Fruitdale, Wilmer, Dwight, Sidney,
Russell, Walley, Burbank, Rounsaville, Earlville, Boothetown,
Pisgah and Lambert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8872 3097 8857 3123 8845 3155 8841
3155 8810 3108 8808 3062 8836 3063 8841
3074 8841 3073 8871

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Remember: SMILE!!!!
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Responses: 6
LTJG Robert M.
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Ya hey SSGT, could ya turn down the heat in Texas? 100° is tooo much
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
SSgt (Join to see)
4 mo
Yep and 120 in Death Valley. LTJG Robert M.
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SPC Margaret Higgins
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Thank you; Dear Forecaster Larry; for the weather report. SSgt (Join to see)
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
SSgt (Join to see)
4 mo
SPC Margaret Higgins Anytime very nice person!!
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Lt Col Charlie Brown
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Glad it seems to be disintegrating
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