Posted on May 1, 2021
MSG Sitting
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Please let's keep it to the 2021 draft, and only your team's draft.
Posted in these groups: Football Football33f7f11 NFL
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SFC Casey O'Mally
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Synopsis of the pre-draft discussion from the experts: The Lions really need a top-level WR. Expect them to look at that and LB early. They have holes in almost every position, but they also have some strong players everywhere except WR (After losing Golladay and and Jones, and Amendoula still being unsigned). They definitely need to address WR early.

First round: OL
Second Round: DL
Third Round (72): DL
Third Round (101): CB

You know what you don't see? A WR. Or a LB.

Lions got value picks each and every time. They picked strong players with high upside, moderate to high floors, and a good probability of contributing this year. But they completely failed to address their most pressing need.

Right now WR1 is Breshad Perriman, a guy whose "career" year was 36/645/6. And even then, he is only on a 1 year deal. WR 2 is Quintez Cephus, a 2nd year player who was 20/349/2 last year. Not very inspiring.

If I were grading this like I were grading a school paper, it would get a D-. The Lions put forward a STRONG effort, with a lot of thought and it was well put together. Unfortunately, they didn't answer the questions that the assignment was asking. I can't bring myself to FAIL them because they did pretty darned good work. But I can't give them a good grade because they didn't do the actual assignment.
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MSG Sitting
MSG (Join to see)
1 mo
the vast majority of WR drafted in the first or second round are a bust. Reason? college game doesn't allow much for contact. The lines might get a WR later from some of the training camp drops, or FA.
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SFC Casey O'Mally
SFC Casey O'Mally
1 mo
MSG (Join to see) - Draft Positions for some of the top WRs out there. I made the list before looking up draft status, so as to avoid confirmation bias. Since it was done from memory, there is a definitive recency bias:

Name...............Overall (round)
Julio Jones..............11 (1)
Antonio Bryant........63 (2)
Randy Moss.............21 (1)
Sterling Sharpe.........7 (1)
Jerry Rice................16 (1)
DeAndre Hopkins.....27 (1)
Tyreek Hill..............165 (5)
Calvin Johnson........2 (1)
Larry FitzGerald.......3 (1)
Terrell Owens........89 (3)
Chris Carter...........(Supplemental)
Marvin Harrison.......19 (1)


Yes, there are a lot of busts in the first round (I am a Lions fan, I know this intimately). But.... If you want that next level elite WR, chances are you are going to have to either draft him early (7 of 11 on my list are first rounders, and only two after 3rd round) OR let someone else develop him and then pay BIG $$$ to buy him away from everyone else - and miss out on the first few years of productivity, too.
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MSG Sitting
MSG (Join to see)
1 mo
My point is not that you cannot get a quality WR in the draft, not at all. The point is, and please do check it, about 70% of all WR taken in the first or second round do not make it to their second contract. BTW, I am shocked to see that Julian Edelman did not make your list: 7th round draft pick. Also, look at all the names you listed, over how many years did they get drafted? if it is during one or two drafts, I stand corrected, but if the compilation of names is over 10 years or more... you got my point. I am a Patriots fan, we bombed big with Nkeal Harry. What a waste of a draft pick.
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SFC Casey O'Mally
SFC Casey O'Mally
1 mo
MSG (Join to see) - I was just taking names of prominent receivers I could remember off the top of my head.

I absolutely agree that taking a WR in the draft - especially early in the draft - is a crap shoot. Lions went WR in the first round 4 years in a row - only one (Megatron) panned out. But if you *don't* pick one up in the early rounds (1st or 2nd) the odds of finding that "diamond in the rough" late in the draft is EXCEPTIONALLY low. Edelman is the exception that proves the rule.
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