China’s strategic future may also run through Ukraine

2023-03-09T15:52:55-05:00

A policy debate is unfolding in Washington DC. A debate that is framed as a choice between supporting the war in Ukraine versus deterring and/or denying the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in any action it may take against Taiwan.

On the one hand, there’s no doubt the United States’ support to Ukraine has significantly depleted US stockpiles and other war reserves. On the other hand, there is equally no doubt China is the pacing actor for US national security. China is not only building its military to challenge the United States but also has the second largest economy in the world. In fact, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, China’s gross domestic product is poised to surpass that of the United States by 2035. We have never faced this kind of strategic challenge – even during the Cold War with Soviet Union.

This Washington debate suggests that our strategic competitors – Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin – make similar distinctions in their strategic objectives.

Well…they do not.

But don’t take my word for it. We will settle this debate through the actions that Xi and Putin are poised to jointly execute in Ukraine.

In the last couple of weeks, we have learned the Biden Administration is contemplating the release of intelligence that shows China may provide direct lethal aid to Russia in its war in Ukraine. According to an NBC News report, the lethal aid under consideration includes ammunition and artillery.

This comes as, just one-year ago, Xi and Putin entered a long-term, strategic alliance – declaring in the 5,000-word agreement “a new era in global order” and describing the two countries’ friendship as “having no limits.” Putin lauded the broad, strategic partnership with China as “unprecedented.” Xi said their joint strategy would have a “far-reaching influence on China, Russia, and the world.”

This alliance between China and Russia suggests that Xi and Putin do not adhere to distinctions in their strategic relationship.

So, why should we?

Through this strategic agreement, Xi and Putin – the world’s leading autocrats – are positioned to not only challenge the global security paradigm but also the existing political order. Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center provided an even more ominous warning: “This is a pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder against America and the West, ideologically as well as militarily…This statement might be looked back on as the beginning of Cold War Two.”

Regardless of whether we frame this new, joint challenge from China and Russia as a “new Cold War” or “great power competition” or “strategic competition,” these are just Washington DC words for a challenge that is global, risking fundamental change to the world order, and existential in nature for the United States and the West.

The war in Ukraine should be understood through this macro prism.

Indeed, through China’s potential lethal support to Russia in Ukraine, one could surmise the CCP sees its strategic future, in part, through Ukraine – by becoming the arbiter of how the Ukrainian battlefield is ultimately shaped for any future negotiations and serving as the guarantor of any negotiated outcome.

In fact, the CCP has put forward a plan for ending the war in Ukraine. And while “President Biden and other top US officials have said China’s proposal is ‘one-sided and only benefits Russia,’ President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has said that China’s engagement on a potential peace plan ‘is not bad.’”

Outcomes in Ukraine shaped and underwritten by China would most certainly be at the expense of the United States and NATO.

We must understand that Ukraine and Taiwan are, strategically speaking, interconnected challenges because the instigators of the conflict in Ukraine – Russia and increasingly China – may well be allied in any future conflict in Taiwan.

This is because the way in which China and Russia see the world is through the prism of doing everything it takes to degrade US power and supplant it as a global leader.

Therefore, for US policy, it should not be one or the other when it comes to China and Russia.

It must be both.

Alex Gallo is the author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society. Alex also serves as the Executive Director of the Common Mission Project, a 501c3, that delivers an innovation and entrepreneurship program, Hacking for Defense®, which brings together the government, universities, and the private sector to solve the strategic challenges. He is also a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute, an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and a US Army Veteran. Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloCMP.

Response by PO2 Marco Monsalve made Mar 9 at 2023 4:04 PM

2023-03-09T16:04:27-05:00

Interesting and thought provoking premise, quite realistic.

Response by CWO4 Terrence Clark made Mar 9 at 2023 11:57 PM

2023-03-09T23:57:14-05:00

Well said.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 13 at 2023 6:57 AM

2023-03-13T06:57:29-04:00

You cover a lot of area very quickly sir. In my opinion we need to be able to take on 3 major actions at one time or we are toast: in my mind that is two actions worldwide and one in the Western Hemisphere at the same time.

To think of equivalent actions of the Cold War in today’s world would be a mistake in my opinion. In my mind we are currently in an area somewhere above Cold War status and below physical war. In any case we need to be 100% ready to fight in any direction. Are we?

I believe one of the biggest mistakes we made was putting ourselves at a disadvantage of implementing economic war against Russia. I see desirability of it to our weak politicians who can say “I will not put boots on the ground”. That’s sort of amusing because all of us here understand that most of our politicians (especially Democrats) don’t really care about us. In reality, what we did in starting economic war against Russia is to put all our people through economic pain. To my understanding even through the World Wars we never waged economic war like this. Why did I say we put ourselves at disadvantage? Because Communists care nothing for their people so they don’t have to worry about keeping them happy, we do.

I agree that we must be ready, not just with military and weapons, but also with energy. What are our emergency reserves at these days? If it’s not at 100% we are in trouble. MHO

Response by CPT Ryan Kelly made Mar 13 at 2023 10:54 AM

2023-03-13T10:54:44-04:00

Agreed. It would surprise me if Xi and Putin don't already have an agreement in place about controlling and dominating the South China Sea, China gets everything south of the Korean peninsula and Russia controls everything north. An alliance between the two (plus Iran and NK) is the only way to counter the US and NATO.

Response by SPC David S. made Mar 14 at 2023 1:49 PM

2023-03-14T13:49:07-04:00

Agree we are very lacking in our strategic thinking especially in terms of how our foreign policy could result or turn into unfavorable outcomes. I feel while we should be focused on 1) China, 2) Russia, 3) Russia & China, and then 4) other Russia/China alliances we should also be working to craft policy that creates problems for any Russia/China alliance.

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 20 at 2023 11:31 PM

2023-03-20T23:31:36-04:00

"...business has defeated everything in it's path..."
[Kings of Power]

Response by SP5 Dennis Loberger made Mar 21 at 2023 10:19 PM

2023-03-21T22:19:50-04:00

It is a mistake for Russia to trust China or China to trust Russia. It is a mistake for any of the free world to trust either one of them

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Mar 22 at 2023 1:09 PM

2023-03-22T13:09:59-04:00

The United States has never been good at diplomacy or strategic planning. We have stumbled our way, exacerbating situations, until forced to "get involved." We have survived our ineptitude because our great economic engine was able to out produce the combined economies of our enemies, supplying not only our war machine but also the was machines of our allies. Well, we see ample evidence that nothing has really changed except that the idiots in the District of Calamity have destroyed our only strategic advantage before blundering their way into this new quagmire.

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 23 at 2023 10:43 AM

2023-03-23T10:43:32-04:00

I know it would have created a incident but h

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 23 at 2023 10:44 AM

2023-03-23T10:44:44-04:00

I know it would have created an incident but a Presidential visit to Taiwan while Xi

Response by SGT John Baker made Mar 23 at 2023 8:40 PM

2023-03-23T20:40:45-04:00

When we pull our head out of the sand, perhaps we might take a look at our reactive form of government. Who knows, someday we might even have a proactive way of governing our domestic and foreign affairs...assuming of course it is not too late. What is holding us back while Communisim continues to grow is our complete surrender to political correctness at the altar of the left.

Response by GySgt Charles O'Connell made Mar 24 at 2023 3:40 PM

2023-03-24T15:40:35-04:00

...China and Russia see the world is through the prism of doing everything it takes to degrade US power and supplant it as a global leader... True, but as independent states, meaning there is no alliance between Russia and China to share the global leader title. If China's goal is to have Russia as their partner for the invasion of Taiwan they could be setting themselves up for a two front war, with an ally already engaged.
What I believe is behind the Chinese support of Russia is the hope that with their logistical support Russia will make gains and prolong the war in Ukraine, hopefully drawing in more and more support, logistically and possibly with ground or air forces, from the west and area allies leaving China with an open door to invade Taiwan. But, with Russian forces already committed, and as a partner with probably less than desired ambition to hold to any mutual support agreement, China will be left to face Japanese, Australia/New Zealand, possibly S. Korea, and the U.S.. mostly on their own.
End result... The participants are left with a world in economic ruin.

Response by SPC Pat Ras made Apr 17 at 2023 8:43 PM

2023-04-17T20:43:34-04:00

Imported plastic drinking bowls from China gave our pet acne and skin lesions. We had a huge vet bill due to it. CAT, Critical Ananalys Technician, our kitty is currently healing once we went to all stainless steel bowls. SAD!