How reliable is the algorithm for estimating promotion points?

SGT Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 17:22:29 -0400

On promotion point websites it says take the avg points from your mos on the trend report and multiply it by 6 then subtract the past 5 months cut off scores to estimate next months points is this accurate?

Response by MSG Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 30 at 2015 5:39 PM

MSG Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 17:39:26 -0400

Oww, that math just hurt my head.

Response by SGT(P) Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 30 at 2015 6:23 PM

SGT(P) Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 18:23:01 -0400

When I was picked up for 5 it was spot on. The only draw back to the trend report is that you have to understand the climate of your MOS and the amount of people in your point group as well as the point groups ahead of you. The Army only picks up to replenish what has moved on. It takes a little research but look into how many SSG's made the list in your MOS, that will determine the need for new SSG's to fill those slots. If there is a high demand then the trend report is very accurate. If the demand is low then the trend report becomes just that, a trend report.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 30 at 2015 6:30 PM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 18:30:02 -0400

People completely misunderstand promotion points. This is how to predict the points.
Determine the number of people HRC will promote in your grade and MOS. Let's say there are 25, find the 25th person from the top. Look at his points. That's what the points will be.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 30 at 2015 8:33 PM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 20:33:07 -0400

It used to work when the trend report came out before the by name and points lists. Now that the come out on the same day, the algorithm is useless, all it will do is give you an average. Before it would get you within about 5 points of what promotion cut off would be. Sorry bud! Just gotta wait for that list to come out now!

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Sep 30 at 2015 10:14 PM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 22:14:22 -0400

I was doing that for 6 months back in 2013. I was shocked it worked i was normally + or - 5 points

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Oct 1 at 2015 4:04 PM

SGT Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 16:04:00 -0400

I did that once and is was pretty accurate. Of by 5 points or so.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Oct 1 at 2015 7:57 PM

SSG Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 19:57:59 -0400

Yes so far since I have been in the Army I have done this and is usually off by 1 or 2 points