How will France react to the attack on Charlie Hebdo Magazine?

2015-01-07T12:06:04-05:00

Today Muslim terrorists attacked a satirical magazine in France as detailed in below article.

Will the French Government under-react, failing to pursue an investigation or mete out justice?

Surely they cannot post police outside every paper and news channel and editor and reporter's home. Will there be consideration of a roll-back on firearm ownership restrictions to provide the only robust response to small arms attacks (individual immediate action)?

Will the French Government react to the attack either domestically with increased domestic surveillance of Muslims? Or internationally with deployments against ISIS/other extremists as they have in the past? Will they pressure the US to react in an international way-as they have (and we have supported) in the past?

What would be an over-reaction and was that the intention of the attackers in the first place?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2015/01/french-newspaper-attacked-paris-gunmen [login to see] 36139681.html

Deadly attack on satirical magazine in Paris

At least 12 people, including four cartoonists and two policemen, killed by three gunmen at Charlie Hebdo magazine.

Response by CPT Zachary Brooks made Jan 7 at 2015 1:07 PM

2015-01-07T13:07:25-05:00

With lackluster support I am sure.

I am already seeing a sweeping under the rug that those that performed the attack were (likely) of the Islamic faith.

Response by SPC Private RallyPoint Member made Jan 7 at 2015 1:26 PM

2015-01-07T13:26:16-05:00

Hate to say it but they'll look to the US for a response. Most of our European allies maintain a generally small stand army because they have te liberty to remain under the massive umbrella that is our own. But this is only the start I'd assume, having watched the flow of ISIS members out of Syria under the guise of refugees, they'll push further and further into Western Europe for now. I'm honestly not trying to fear monger the fact. Just making a play call prediction.

Response by SGM Erik Marquez made Jan 7 at 2015 1:54 PM

2015-01-07T13:54:36-05:00

French government will speak empty words backed by no action.
The French military will conceive an outstanding plan with high chance of success and minimal consequence management needs, which will be refused by the French president. The French police will make a few token arrests and the event will fade away...until the next one.
Wash, rinse, repeat.

Response by LTC Paul Labrador made Jan 7 at 2015 2:44 PM

2015-01-07T14:44:55-05:00

The French are hard to read sometimes. Sometimes they live up to the "punching bag" stereotype, other times they go off the deep end (guillotines anyone?).

Response by Maj Chris Nelson made Jan 7 at 2015 3:42 PM

2015-01-07T15:42:03-05:00

I am not a big fan of France.... I suspect they will add a second shift to their "white flag" production line......

Response by LTC David S. Chang, ChFC®, CLU® made Jan 7 at 2015 6:25 PM

2015-01-07T18:25:49-05:00

I think that Europe is a powder keg ready to blow. I was in North Africa last year and one of the things some folks mentioned is that many extremists going to europe to study the system and look to fulfill their calling.

Immigration is becoming an issue where some political parties who want regulate it have won recently. I don't know what they are going to do for the long-run, but there has also been quite a bit of anti-semitic attacks there too.

I think freedom of speech is essential to our freedom and although the depiction of Mohammed by the Dutch cartoonists may not have been in the best taste, issuing a reward for his death is something that goes too far.

I believe that this may be the beginning in Europe on more attacks.

Response by CSM Michael J. Uhlig made Jan 7 at 2015 6:43 PM

2015-01-07T18:43:26-05:00

you cannot allow 2 people control a city of 2 million!

Response by 1SG Private RallyPoint Member made Jan 7 at 2015 6:45 PM

2015-01-07T18:45:46-05:00

Crazy day in the world today! Be safe and watch your six.

Response by Capt Richard I P. made Jan 8 at 2015 5:51 PM

2015-01-08T17:51:14-05:00

I've been waiting to see what others think, and I'm going to post a little of my own views.

I really enjoyed reading America Alone by Mark Steyn. http://www.amazon.com/America-Alone-The-World-Know/dp/ [login to see]

I don't think Mark Steyn is right about everything, and he is controversial. I do think he makes really good points about big history. Big history is driven by three major things 1. Geography 2. Weather 3. Population. For the first two I really enjoyed Guns Germs and Steel. Steyn focuses primarily on the third, population. His central premise is that birth rates trump almost anything else at this point in human history. People born into a certain ideological system are very likely to follow that for their lives. There are those who question and change and grow, but they are the exception. Most will believe the same as their parents. So when virtually every country with liberal, democratic, western values is breeding BELOW replacement rate (2 kids per couple) their society is dying, slowly. When a society is breeding well above 2.0, they have to either 1. develop increased technology and wealth to support increased population (or population control like birth control) 2. have massive death (famine, wars, disease) or 3. emigrate. Cue massive migration over time from places that have too many people to places that have too few people (both sides need it economically), but people bring their ideas. People do eventually assimilate, it usually takes a few generations. If that assimilation clock is moving slower than the immigration and reproduction clocks, you have societal shifts inside countries.

So, people who believe in theocracy: that god's law must be made manifest in civic authority who immigrate to countries that no longer believe this and disagree. But the countries do believe in democracy. Well, the people who want theocracy start voting. And as they vote they start taking more of the representation, as they should according to Democratic theory. Well when believers in separation of church and state see believers in theocracy winning power through voting, what do they do? They vote to disenfranchise those people before it's too late. But remember those clocks- time is on the side of the believers in theocracy. What happens when a large plurality is heavily disenfranchised? Violence. Lots of it. Steyn forecasts the descent of Europe into Civil War, one side believers in Islam, the other neo-totalitarians interested in establishing a split society of increased stratification and disenfranchisement. He breaks down the rates for the countries and predicts the order of increased chaos, and its very interesting reading.

So what do I think of this specific attack? A leading indicator, much like the riots. do I think France will over-react? In the long term, yes, maybe not yet.

Amazon.com: America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It (9781596985278): Mark Steyn: Books

Response by Capt Richard I P. made Jan 8 at 2015 5:59 PM

2015-01-08T17:59:06-05:00

A question I'd like to pose to people involved here already:Were these terrorists 'smart' or 'dumb'?

As I see it "Smart" terrorists here would want to provoke a significant over-reaction from French Authorities domestically to unify more Muslims against the French Government. Their true intent was to snatch attention and invite reprisals for a longer team strategic unification against the Government.

"Dumb" terrorists are just angry someone said something rude about the Prophet and are carrying out their duties as true believers to avenge him.

The clue that i think points to 'smart:' they had an ex-filtration plan. They want to live (generally a smart thing-the dumb true believers are the suicide-rs) and they want the cops looking for them, aggressively and offensively in the French Muslim community.

Thoughts Gentlemen? SFC James Sczymanski LTC David S. Chang, ChFC®, CLU® LTC Paul Labrador SPC Private RallyPoint Member 1SG Private RallyPoint Member CSM Michael J. Uhlig SGM Erik Marquez PO2 William Allen Crowder 1LT John Martin CPT Zachary Brooks SMSgt Minister Gerald A. Thomas Maj Chris Nelson

Response by Capt Richard I P. made Jan 8 at 2015 6:00 PM

2015-01-08T18:00:22-05:00

Response by COL Private RallyPoint Member made Jan 9 at 2015 9:34 AM

2015-01-09T09:34:22-05:00

I don't think that this is their tipping point. Not this one event. Not singularly. If this continues to escalate in small incidents, it might. There have now been three other events loosely linked to this attack, including two hostage situations. There have been three attacks against Muslim owned businesses or mosques. If this escalates in the hands of the people, then we will see a problem. France isn't capable as a nation of over reacting. It's not in their nature to do so. The people however...when they are afraid...can do terrible things. If this becomes a back-and-forth internal struggle, then we may have a tipping point for France, and the west in general when it comes to overt tollerance of a larger community from which extremists are formed. Not saying it's a good thing, but I believe it's only a matter of time.

Response by Cpl James Goodin made Jan 9 at 2015 9:42 AM

2015-01-09T09:42:00-05:00

Sad thing about this is that the French Intelligence has known about this cell for 10 years and it took 13+ people dying before they did something permanent about it. I know some of the cell were arrested and jailed for upwards to 18 months. That just pissed them off and allowed more recruiting inside the jails.

Response by Capt Richard I P. made Jan 9 at 2015 6:06 PM

2015-01-09T18:06:50-05:00

Semper Fidelis to our brother-warriors in France who have killed (some of) the people who did this. A shame they couldn't save every hostage, but make no mistake about their heroism of their actions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-09/shots-fired-hostages-taken-in-town-northeast-of-paris.html

Charlie Hebdo Terror Suspects Killed in Raid, Police Say

Response by SFC Peter Cyprian made Jan 10 at 2015 4:09 PM

2015-01-10T16:09:11-05:00

What has happened in France is a direct result of "accommodating" muslims in France for years- even though French law was being violated by the muslims. Because of this, the government bears much responsibility in this- to react appropriately would bring their own failure into the limelight.

Response by 1LT Private RallyPoint Member made Mar 24 at 2015 5:37 PM

2015-03-24T17:37:10-04:00

I was in Paris during the attack and I followed the two hostage situations on live TV.

First, I can assure you that cops aren't prepared against ak-47. French policemen are equipped with basic Kevlar soft inserts that barely stop 9mm, so I let you imagine damages when shot at with 7.62.
ROA in France are completely insane.. Before the attacks, french soldiers posted at strategic locations (Eiffel tower, embassies etc...) didn't even load mags in their weapons.
Only team leader had firepower (service pistol).

Second, there are huge issues within France intelligence community. The perpetrators had been red flagged multiple times, and they all met in jail. In 2012, Toulouse and Montauban shooter was also know by the police (as a potential terrorist), yet, he was able to kill 7 and injured 6.
France needs to rewrite it's law to allow police and law enforcement to take preventive actions. However, it would only be correctly implemented with a reevaluation of the allocated budget and an increase in humans means.