What will have more an "IMPACT" for Election 2016: The Popular Vote or Electoral College?

SPC Andrew Griffin — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 14:20:30 -0400

Response by SCPO David Lockwood made Aug 17 at 2015 2:23 PM

SCPO David Lockwood — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 14:23:51 -0400

Based on past elections the Popular vote seems to mean squat! The electoral vote will have the most impact.

Response by SFC Michael Hasbun made Aug 17 at 2015 2:26 PM

SFC Michael Hasbun — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 14:26:17 -0400

Electoral vote. The popular vote is meaningless. The electoral college is under no obligation to pay any attention to it.

Response by COL Mikel J. Burroughs made Aug 17 at 2015 2:30 PM

COL Mikel J. Burroughs — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 14:30:58 -0400

SPC Andrew Griffin Unfortunately it comes down to the Electoral Vote. I like the suggestion that CPT Jack Durish made in reference to the way the parties picked their candidates in the past. I believe that would be better than what we have now.

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Aug 17 at 2015 2:53 PM

Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 14:53:11 -0400

The popular vote is merely a mechanic for determining who the Electoral College will "Pledge" their votes to. In reality it means very little, however mechanically when you have states with between 6M and 60M people, it becomes a big deal because not every vote ends up being worth the same.

This is a product of the "winner take all" methodology in many/most states.

The issue that happens is when you have a State with a large population (and hence LOTS of EC votes) which is "evenly divided" compared to a State with a small population but little political division.

As an example, Let's say the State of Orange has 30 EC votes, but only 60% is voting for the Red party. The red party still gets all 30 votes in most cases. Compare that with the State of Banana, who has 12 EC votes, but votes entirely Blue. If each EC vote was 100k People, that would tell us 1.8M people voted Red, and 2.4M voted Blue, however because of vote "pledging" and "winner take all" Red wins.

This is why "Swing States" are so important in an election. You are able to get a solid chunk of EC votes, without swaying a lot of the population.

Using Red & Blue again, to make the election go to Blue, we would need 11% of the population of Orange to change their vote (which is 3+ votes, but actually returns all 30). If this were a Bell Curve, you are trying to get States that neither have the minimum (1) or the maximum (55), because it's just too hard to sway that much of the population. But... by focusing on the middle of the Bell Curve you are able to "rack up easy points" compared to hard ones.

So using the State of Mango (55 EC votes) as an example, shifting 11% of that population is 550K votes, whereas shifting Orange 11% is only 300K votes. Rather than go after a single large state, it is more beneficial to go after several mid size states.

But that merely explains why the EC v. Popular vote functions the way it does, not why it's important. The major problem with using a straight Popular votes system is that it puts "disproportionate weight" on major city centers, or States that house those city centers. In the US that would mean NYC, Dallas, LA, Chicago. Rather than forcing campaigns to be spread out throughout the country, they would be VERY tightly focused on only the most heavily populated areas.

The EC fixes that, however "winner take all" creates a different complexity.

Response by SGT Roberto Mendoza-Diaz made Aug 17 at 2015 7:14 PM

SGT Roberto Mendoza-Diaz — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 19:14:06 -0400

What are the popular vote and the electoral college?

Response by SSgt Alex Robinson made Aug 18 at 2015 7:54 AM

SSgt Alex Robinson — Tue, 18 Aug 2015 07:54:38 -0400

The electoral college is tied to the popular vote Ina micro sense each state. Each state won by a candidate is a piece of the electoral pie.

Response by Capt Walter Miller made Aug 18 at 2015 11:24 AM

Capt Walter Miller — Tue, 18 Aug 2015 11:24:29 -0400

The electoral College.

Abraham Lincoln didn’t appear on the ballot in 10 states in 1860 but he still won handily in the EC. It was well understood that who ever won the Republican nomination would carry the election.

That is true this year too. Whoever the Dems nominate will win because the Republicans are now pretty much a regional party and the party of angry old white people.

Me, I am a happy old white person and I am voting Democratic.

Walt

Response by PO1 John Miller made Aug 20 at 2015 4:41 AM

PO1 John Miller — Thu, 20 Aug 2015 04:41:55 -0400

I realize I'm a few days late, but the Electoral College. As others have stated, the EC is under no obligation to vote for the winner of the popular vote.

Look back to 2000 for the most recent example. "Officially," Al Gore won the popular vote by a little over 500,000 votes. I use quotation marks because there are those who believe that Gore rigged the count by continuously demanding recounts, not counting absentee ballots, etc. for the state of Florida.

Response by SSG John Erny made Sep 28 at 2015 10:10 AM

SSG John Erny — Mon, 28 Sep 2015 10:10:10 -0400

If it happens to help a particular part the EC is the greatest thing ever invented, then in the following election if it goes against them then they want to re-think it. If the EC were broken down by county the Democrats would never win a major election. The whole process seems to be Major cities Vs. the rest of America. Most of America by area is Republican.

Response by SGM Mikel Dawson made Aug 4 at 2016 11:05 AM

SGM Mikel Dawson — Thu, 04 Aug 2016 11:05:55 -0400

It's happened before, one wins the popular vote while another takes the electoral college. Any way it goes, if Killary Rotten Clinton get in, we're in deep horse crap.

Response by SPC Sheila Lewis made Aug 4 at 2016 11:06 AM

SPC Sheila Lewis — Thu, 04 Aug 2016 11:06:01 -0400

Unfortunately the Electoral College will be more persuasive because that is a ready tool....I still believe in the Popular Vote because We everyday American Citizens/Taxpayers should be heard and since nothing is binding for those in the Electoral College, they are easy pickings for unscrupulous Lobbyists and America gets another kick to the groin.