Posted on Dec 29, 2016
The Myth of Russian Aggression and NATO Expansion
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Some great thoughts from one some Army writers, and one a founding member of the Military Writers Guild. (Great group to help military writers and get the word to the civ world.)
Some interesting stats about the US/NATO power loss....
"The result was a precipitous decline in U.S. and NATO combat power. From the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989 to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, U.S. force levels in Europe fell by 80 percent greatly reducing U.S. combat power by reducing fighter squadrons, naval activity, and ground forces. This decline understates the loss in U.S. combat power quickly available to NATO for two reasons. First, U.S. joint and service headquarter staffs account for a greater percentage of total troop numbers in 2014 than they did in 1989 because many headquarters functions—e.g., coordinating with foreign partners—require approximately the same number of personnel whether they are supporting an exercise that involves one squadron or two. Larger events require more support, but certain fixed “costs” remain the same. Second, the United States’ most powerful and difficult to deploy ground units in Europe, tank brigades, all relocated to the U.S. in 2013."
Some interesting stats about the US/NATO power loss....
"The result was a precipitous decline in U.S. and NATO combat power. From the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989 to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, U.S. force levels in Europe fell by 80 percent greatly reducing U.S. combat power by reducing fighter squadrons, naval activity, and ground forces. This decline understates the loss in U.S. combat power quickly available to NATO for two reasons. First, U.S. joint and service headquarter staffs account for a greater percentage of total troop numbers in 2014 than they did in 1989 because many headquarters functions—e.g., coordinating with foreign partners—require approximately the same number of personnel whether they are supporting an exercise that involves one squadron or two. Larger events require more support, but certain fixed “costs” remain the same. Second, the United States’ most powerful and difficult to deploy ground units in Europe, tank brigades, all relocated to the U.S. in 2013."
The Myth of Russian Aggression and NATO Expansion
Posted from thestrategybridge.org
Russia
Armor
Infantry
Posted >1 y ago
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As an old Cold Warrior, I find this article very interesting. Very well thought out analysis.
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SSgt GG-15 RET Jim Lint
Watch the writers at the Military Writers Guild. They have some rock stars. They have some well placed in DOD Staff, and combatant commands. They also have FNG writers...like me. I write for the AMU which I teach at, but it is also nice to be with MWG and the military family.
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a very informative and interesting article... thanks fro the update...
..."The West must deal with Russia comprehensively, in a manner it understands. In addition to dialog, if NATO wants to deter further aggression, it needs a credible deterrent that increases Russian perceptions of the costs and risks associated with further military aggression. More NATO military forces are unlikely to encourage more aggression and may not prevent Russian aggression to address what they perceive as a vital interest (e.g., Crimea). However, a more robust NATO military presence in Europe will certainly tilt Russian cost-benefit-risk calculations to forego military aggression as a viable method for less important objectives. Furthermore, for vital interests, greater NATO military capabilities will provide members with more response options if Russia continues using military force to violate international norms. The alternative appears more likely to allow Russia free reign and dooms millions of people to suffer under its shadow...."...
..."The West must deal with Russia comprehensively, in a manner it understands. In addition to dialog, if NATO wants to deter further aggression, it needs a credible deterrent that increases Russian perceptions of the costs and risks associated with further military aggression. More NATO military forces are unlikely to encourage more aggression and may not prevent Russian aggression to address what they perceive as a vital interest (e.g., Crimea). However, a more robust NATO military presence in Europe will certainly tilt Russian cost-benefit-risk calculations to forego military aggression as a viable method for less important objectives. Furthermore, for vital interests, greater NATO military capabilities will provide members with more response options if Russia continues using military force to violate international norms. The alternative appears more likely to allow Russia free reign and dooms millions of people to suffer under its shadow...."...
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