Posted on Mar 2, 2022
As Russia's Ukraine war intensifies, some warn nuclear escalation is possible
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https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/ [login to see] /russia-ukraine-war-putin-nuclear-escalation-risk
Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave orders to his nation's nuclear forces. On Monday, the U.S. said it would not respond with changes to its own nuclear posture.
"At this time we see no reason to change our own alert levels," White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday.
Some experts, though, are worried about the possibility of nuclear escalation. Here's why.
The exact meaning of Putin's order remains unclear
In a brief clip, Putin is shown speaking to two stony-faced generals about the country's nuclear forces.
"He basically said, 'Because of all these hostile or aggressive statements and aggressive policies, we should start this special mode of combat duty of our deterrent forces,'" says Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.
Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave orders to his nation's nuclear forces. On Monday, the U.S. said it would not respond with changes to its own nuclear posture.
"At this time we see no reason to change our own alert levels," White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday.
Some experts, though, are worried about the possibility of nuclear escalation. Here's why.
The exact meaning of Putin's order remains unclear
In a brief clip, Putin is shown speaking to two stony-faced generals about the country's nuclear forces.
"He basically said, 'Because of all these hostile or aggressive statements and aggressive policies, we should start this special mode of combat duty of our deterrent forces,'" says Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.
As Russia's Ukraine war intensifies, some warn nuclear escalation is possible
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PO1 William "Chip" Nagel
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The exact meaning of Putin's order remains unclear
In a brief clip, Putin is shown speaking to two stony-faced generals about the country's nuclear forces.
"He basically said, 'Because of all these hostile or aggressive statements and aggressive policies, we should start this special mode of combat duty of our deterrent forces,'" says Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.
It's unclear what a "special mode of combat duty" actually is. One possibility, says Podvig, is that the order activated the nation's nuclear command and control system.
"Normally, in peacetime, the command and control system is configured in a way that makes the transmission of an actual command very much impossible," he says. "It's like you could press the button, but then nothing happens, because the button is not connected to anything."
Putin's order may have meant he wanted the button activated.
Then again, it may not.
Podvig says a follow-up statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense implied it may just mean upping the staffing at facilities that support nuclear weapons. It could be "they just added a few more people to the crews," Podvig says.
Russia has a lot of nuclear weapons at the ready
Russia has more nuclear weapons than any other nation on Earth, according to Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists.
"We estimate that they have about 4,500 or so nuclear warheads in their military stockpile," he says.
For now, Russia's largest nuclear weapons — aboard its submarines, bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles — appear to be at their usual level of alert, Kristensen says. But the nation's stockpile also includes nearly 2,000 so-called tactical nuclear weapons, which are kept in storage facilities throughout Russia.
"They were developed for the purpose of fighting a limited regional battle. Sort of a nuclear war in a very small area," says Kristensen.
The U.S. has about 100 nuclear bombs stationed across Europe that could be used for tactical nuclear warfare.
The Kremlin's battlefield weapons can be launched on the same short-range missiles Russia is currently using to bombard Ukraine, such as its Iskander ballistic missile.
Right now, there's no indication that the battlefield nukes have been pulled out of storage."...
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The exact meaning of Putin's order remains unclear
In a brief clip, Putin is shown speaking to two stony-faced generals about the country's nuclear forces.
"He basically said, 'Because of all these hostile or aggressive statements and aggressive policies, we should start this special mode of combat duty of our deterrent forces,'" says Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.
It's unclear what a "special mode of combat duty" actually is. One possibility, says Podvig, is that the order activated the nation's nuclear command and control system.
"Normally, in peacetime, the command and control system is configured in a way that makes the transmission of an actual command very much impossible," he says. "It's like you could press the button, but then nothing happens, because the button is not connected to anything."
Putin's order may have meant he wanted the button activated.
Then again, it may not.
Podvig says a follow-up statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense implied it may just mean upping the staffing at facilities that support nuclear weapons. It could be "they just added a few more people to the crews," Podvig says.
Russia has a lot of nuclear weapons at the ready
Russia has more nuclear weapons than any other nation on Earth, according to Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists.
"We estimate that they have about 4,500 or so nuclear warheads in their military stockpile," he says.
For now, Russia's largest nuclear weapons — aboard its submarines, bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles — appear to be at their usual level of alert, Kristensen says. But the nation's stockpile also includes nearly 2,000 so-called tactical nuclear weapons, which are kept in storage facilities throughout Russia.
"They were developed for the purpose of fighting a limited regional battle. Sort of a nuclear war in a very small area," says Kristensen.
The U.S. has about 100 nuclear bombs stationed across Europe that could be used for tactical nuclear warfare.
The Kremlin's battlefield weapons can be launched on the same short-range missiles Russia is currently using to bombard Ukraine, such as its Iskander ballistic missile.
Right now, there's no indication that the battlefield nukes have been pulled out of storage."...
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