Posted on Jun 24, 2014
SFC Intelligence Analyst   Atl
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With the increasing sectarian violence in Iraq, will we soon see a partitioned Iraq? How many different states will we see? Would a Shiite 'Southern Iraq' become a protectorate of Iran? A Vassal? Just how threatened would Turkey be by an independent Kurdish state? What other dynamics would change in and around the Arabian Peninsula and Levant regions?
Posted in these groups: Multinational force iraq emblem  mnf i   1 5 IraqMiddle east logo Middle East
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Responses: 3
SGT Ben Keen
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The country has always been three different states, at least in belief. I remember rolling through out of Kuwait and into Iraq and seeing how the three different areas differed so much when it came to attitude, and things like that. I wouldn't be surprised to this the country take on three distinct boarder lines within the area that Iraq holds now. Is that the smartest move, probably not. That country truly uses the different areas to help support it's support itself. The oil fields in the south help run the farm vehicles in the north.
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LTC David S. Chang, ChFC®, CLU®
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This is a great questions. I remember ten years ago when someone suggested splitting Iraq up but it was met with disdain. looking back now, it was worth at least researching a little bit. The concern is that there are a lot of countries in the same boat. If Iraq goes this route, then minority populations in other countries could ask for the same thing, further destabilizing world politics (look at Africa!).

I believe this is what many people fear. Turkey as you mentioned has a large Kurdish population, Turkey is afraid that the Kurds instead of moving would want part of Turkey to also leave the country. I don't think there is an easy answer!
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SFC Intelligence Analyst   Atl
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Sir, it is all of the second and third order effects that I am curious and somewhat weary of. Would we see a domino effect in Africa? I am not sure. But in the Middle East, I definitely can see it.
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Maj Walter Kilar
Maj Walter Kilar
10 y
If it takes too much effort to keep borders that the citizens inside the borders do not seem to like, then we should let the Iraqis choose their own borders. If that means that they split amongst Sunni-Shiite lines, or Arab-Kurdish-Turkoman-Assyrian or any other lines, then so be it. We just need to stop imposing our view of the world on Iraq.
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1LT Shawn McCarthy
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You have a nation that was built for western convenience.
Partitioning might work better, as long as peace could be maintained between the groups.
The problem is, the decision over new borders would probably not be mutual, and that might start the first war among the new nations...and that might last for...well...Korea.
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SFC Intelligence Analyst   Atl
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Since I believe that there would be at least 3 "nations" come out of a partitioning of Iraq, I see it as more of a Yugoslavia situation. What I hope, however, is that we don't see "ethnic cleansing" on those levels. But, it might all ready be too late for that.
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