What is the likelihood of making E5 as an E4 going from Army National Guard to Active Duty?

SPC (Join to see), it is disappointing to hear about your experience in the NG.

First, promotions are pretty standard across all components of the Army and can be found in AR 600-8-19. Aspiring Sergeants should know a few key regulations (including that one) going into Basic Leader Course.

Second, talk to an AD recruiter, like SFC (Join to see). He may be able to tell you how dense your current MOS is. This may given you an idea of what and where opportunities exist.

Third, you did not indicate the number of promotion points you have, probably because it doesn't matter much in the NG, but in the other two components it can keep you from getting slated for promotion if you are way down on the OML. You can do things to increase your chances:
1. create and IDP in ACT. It can show you the OASS classes you can self-enroll in to increase your promotion points for self-development.
2. max your ACFT (everyone should have a record by April).
3. max your weapons qualification (go to a range to practice, plenty of private ranges offer significant discounts to NG Soldiers).
4. know your MOS and basic Soldier skills inside and out. Get ahold of the Skill level 2,3,4 MOS book so you know what to expect at higher skill levels. (you will be re-boarded for E5 in person)
5. be proactive when you show up to BA, motivate your peers. If you work in a shop, there should be plenty to do, if not train on your basic Soldier tasks.

Finally, you will most likely be treated like you are fresh out of basic if you switch to AD. You have been in for 6.5 years, and since you haven't deployed, that means you have worked for the Army for about 240 days compared to an equivalent AD Solider's 2200 days. How you conduct yourself will really determine how you are treated in the long run. In another 10 years, it won't matter if you continue to develop yourself to "be all you can be".

Speaking as one who went from Reserves to Active Duty as a SPC....your rank will get recalculated, giving you a different Date of Rank. One of the main reasons for this is so you don't get hit with RCP. As for your chances of making SGT before 10 years...that's gonna depend on your promotion points and where you land on the OML. As for how they'd treat you....well, that is going to depend on the people in the unit. When I went Active...some gave me some friendly ribbing but for the most part, no one really cared. Also, I would like to point out that when I went Active, I had but 3 ribbons on my chest. I, too, had no deployments nor schooling.

While these areas can be of concern...they are easily overcome.

With the time remaining you should be able to get promoted, as long as the Army has the slots available. As for transferring, just perform, that will quickly shut down the rookie I.D.