Posted on Jul 14, 2015
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Congrats! Let's assume that Congress will approve. Don't make your answer about domestic politics, but a chance for peace with Iran. The deal is done, what does this mean to the Iranian people?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-world-powers-reach-nuclear-deal [login to see]
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-world-powers-reach-nuclear-deal [login to see]
Leadership
Foreign Affairs
Nuclear
Edited 9 y ago
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 14
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Personally, I think there's a long game being played here. We absolutely can not trust the ruling council. They have held power by playing certain political games that need a great enemy in the West.
HOWEVER, they're old. The next guys in line are not as hard line. Much of the secular side of the government is Western trained, less interested in keeping the status quo and do not appear all that interested in military strength as much as economic. The youth in the cities are, by all reports, a whole different animal, very interested in re-engaging the outside world and chafing under the rage of those that remember the Shah.
Iran hates us for good reason, but most of the ones that actually suffered under the Western-backed Shah are dead or dying. The long-standing and obviously ineffective policy towards engaging Iran through sanctions and back channels is probably creating as many problems as it is preventing. This could be good, BUT we must be ready to put the hammer down if Iran starts playing games ala Saddam/NK.
HOWEVER, they're old. The next guys in line are not as hard line. Much of the secular side of the government is Western trained, less interested in keeping the status quo and do not appear all that interested in military strength as much as economic. The youth in the cities are, by all reports, a whole different animal, very interested in re-engaging the outside world and chafing under the rage of those that remember the Shah.
Iran hates us for good reason, but most of the ones that actually suffered under the Western-backed Shah are dead or dying. The long-standing and obviously ineffective policy towards engaging Iran through sanctions and back channels is probably creating as many problems as it is preventing. This could be good, BUT we must be ready to put the hammer down if Iran starts playing games ala Saddam/NK.
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SGT Jeremiah B.
Oh, so what does this mean? At first, it probably won't mean a lot. Long term though, a way to re-engage the West economically without losing face. It will mean a better quality of life as sanctions relax and, if the government slips, that may actually encourage the average person to be more engaged as they watch personal gains wiped out. Maybe.
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Suspended Profile
It is a win for for free trade. Iran has a GDP per capital of around 5000 which is higher than Vietnam (1700) or Egypt (3400). It is a super threat to America if they get nuclear weapons. But, it is an attractive emerging market for companies like Coke, Apple, Lulu lemon, McDonalds, Boeing, or 7-11. I think economic trade is a good strategy for peace in the middle east and more feasible than people think. German company Siemans has a contract with Egyptian government. Saudi Arabia opened its stock market. Kazakhstan joins the WTO. Trade is better than the nuclear apocalypse.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/siemens-signs-9-billion-power-plant-deal-with-egypt [login to see]
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/07/forget-borat-wto-puts-kazakhstan-on-map.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabias-590-billion-stock-market-opens-to-foreign-investors [login to see]
http://www.wsj.com/articles/siemens-signs-9-billion-power-plant-deal-with-egypt [login to see]
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/07/forget-borat-wto-puts-kazakhstan-on-map.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabias-590-billion-stock-market-opens-to-foreign-investors [login to see]
Siemens Signs $9 Billion Power-Plant Deal With Egypt
German engineering company to build gas and wind power plants for Egypt, in what it describes as the largest single order in the firm’s history.
LTC John Shaw
1LT (Servicemember) Yes, I can see commercial ties should improve from any agreement. I am certain every corporate board room for multi-national companies is looking hard for Iranian partners post October Security Council approval that seems a given at this point. I am sure the Russians and Chinese are expecting additional military sales as well.
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What was telling about how bad of a negotiator Kerry is. He asked that the four Americans being held in an Iranian prison be released. This was after the treaty was signed sealed and deliverd. I'm sure the Iranians are still laughing.
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