Steep decline in promotion rates? What does it mean for the Army?

Promotions go down when force structure goes down- fewer troops=fewer Officers. It is simple.

Promotion rates in the Active Army have always been cyclical. The rate was high a few years ago because of the wars. Now we are in a time of cutback. The selection rate for Major has been below 60% and above 90%.

Smaller army less promotions

The old normal is back. It is unheard of to move from LT to MAJ in eight years. We are paying that price now. For this war, where attrition was so low, there was no need to increase the pace of promotion following 9-11. What it mean to those in this year group should another conflict arise is that they will be looked at as slugs since they did not rocket through the ranks. Yes, it is stupid, but the military has never been about quality just image. We will suffer because we will have convinced young brash officers that the actually know what they are doing, and we will offer their souls to the god of ignorance and overconfidence just as we have for the last 14 years. Our political system will also pay the price as the decision they make will cause and have caused unwarranted CIVCAS, diplomatic missteps, organization failures, and billions of dollars in misappropriated funds like the gas station in Afghanistan, and the many unbuilt schools or failed wells. The officer core today is delusional. Those promoted are not the best, or the brightest, or the bravest. We must do a better job than picking our buddys and roommates, or the guy I trust because he looks like me, to lead our Nation into the abyss the future holds. Now I will read the article.

Most seem to be nailing the force reduction piece. In my viewpoint over the past 40+ years, 83% to O-5 is real fat. Flow points in stabilized times were 75% to O-4, 60% to O-5, and 40% to O-6. Although I was staff corps, our rates were tied to the unrestricted line numbers. The worse end I saw was a 15% promotion to O-4 for YG-76-77 as Big Navy pushed a bunch of O-3 Surface Warfare Officers in and push-buttoned them. So those who spent 10 years doing great work got tossed. That came back to haunt the system as corporate experience took a dive. Two things happen on downsizing with the zones. The percentage gets dropped and also the width at times. I've seen 6-9 month zones with precepts for no above/below picks. I've also seen promotables stay that way for 2+ years because there were no billets. That torques some off so they leave, but that reduces the pressure on those still in. Military members have less "protection" than civil service given no bump or retreat options. Put me in the got tossed category.

Ya think they are trying to do that lol what's your first clue Sir? Trying? ohh no They are doing it. But that's fine, there is a shit ton of COL's, LTC's that need to be told don't go away mad, just go away. The same holds true for some enlisted as well.

It's called being in the midst of a draw down. The same thing happened after Desert Storm. I came in at the tail end of the Reduction in Force after Desert Storm. The promotion rates were very low as a result. The positive for my year group is it created shortages that followed me up through my career so the promotion rates for MAJ and LTC were very high, plus add in two wars and a temporary increase in strength and the rates were above 90%. Yes, the military will make cuts to the minimum level and it will result in another year group shortage. It goes in cycles.

Overall promotion rate of 61% for PZ, total promotion selection rate of 70% (including AZ and BZ numbers). Some branches and functional areas WAY below the average, though. I haven't seen the final breakout of data on by-MOS promotion rates; does anyone have one? I'd also note that its easier to get promoted to colonel in some MOSs than to LTC (ie, some MOSs had higher promotion rates to COL than to LTC).

50%? Wow; officers have it good O.o

This is a personal viewpoint, but the military seems to have more flag officers than during WWII, when we were at one point in time, fighting on three different continents/regions of the world, with more service members than we have seen since. Things worked out fine. Have things gotten that more complex that we need that many more officers? I understand that the world is much more complex and dynamic, and we may never fight a conventional WWII style war ever again, but I think low promotion rates in general, for officers and enlisted, are a good thing. It seperates the outstanding servicemembers from the mediocre/awful ones.