Vetspective: The Central War of the 21st Century: Talent

As veterans, we often think of war in terms of military power — planes, ships, tanks. But in the
21st century, power projection has expanded to include drones, cyber capabilities, satellites,
and lasers. While future wars will undoubtedly involve both traditional and emerging
technologies, the most critical fight shaping the future of the United States both in terms of its
national and economic security is not exclusively over technology – it is over talent.

The real war that will determine the future of not only the United States’ national security but
also our economic security lies not exclusively in “ones and zeroes” – but in people.

Our economic and national security rests with winning the talent war with China.

Talent will determine the trajectory of US and global innovation for decades to come – perhaps
even into the 22 nd century. The outcome of this war for talent between the United States and
China will influence the how technology advances and determine the future structure and
architecture of technological advancement worldwide.

The United States must win this war and lead this technological future. Because if we do not,
we will find ourselves in a China-dominated global technology regime that will render our
national security completely exposed and economic security decisively defeated.

The foundation of economic power in the modern era lies in innovation. Innovation is powered
by talent. Whether it is developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence, pioneering breakthroughs
in biotechnology, or advancing energy technologies; the brightest minds drive progress.
China has aggressively ramped up investments in STEM education – particularly at the PhD
level. In a 2021 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, Remco Zwetsloot
noted that China started producing more STEM PhD graduates since the mid 2000s and has
consistently produced higher numbers of STEM PhDs than the United States since then.

Moreover, by this year (2025), China will produce nearly 80,000 STEM PhDs. That is double the
number of STEM PhDs the United States will produce this year. And when you remove
international students from the tally, China is producing nearly three-times the STEM PhD
grads. All the while, the quality of China’s STEM PhD graduates have increased. On this
trajectory, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) STEM and tech talent workforce is potentially
poised to dominate the technological future of the global commons.

The CCP’s centralized approach attempts to centrally coordinate the tech domain. The United
States has long depended on its open-market system, dynamic entrepreneurial culture, and
world-class universities to maintain its competitive edge. However, this historically
decentralized model now demands strategic coordination to rival China’s state-driven
approach. A non-governmental, non-profit entity could fulfill this role by sourcing critical public
challenges, talent, and expertise while channeling capital into regional tech hubs across the
nation.

The "war for talent" carries profound consequences for shaping the world we will ultimately
inhabit. The global movement of talent—scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and
innovators—will determine where breakthroughs occur and whether nations like China and its
cronies or the United States and its Western partners gain the resulting advantages.

As Zwetsloot asserts: “Talent attracts talent.” He argues that there could be a tipping point at
which China achieves a determinative breakthrough and much of the world’s top STEM minds
gravitate towards China. We are not there yet. But with China’s significant investments in AI,
quantum computing, and related technologies; they may eventually reach such a tipping point.

Do we want AI and biotechnology to be developed under an authoritarian regime (China) with
limited oversight and consideration of Western interests? Or do we want these critical
technologies to flourish in the United States where American values and interests of our
Republic are at the center?

The answer hinges, in part, on where the brightest minds – both Americans and those
international students who attend US universities – choose to work and innovate.

There are ways to solve this problem. Establishing programs to retrain and reskill the great
American workforce is part of the solution. There is also an important debate around how to
enable international STEM talent to remain in the US, start businesses, and create
breakthrough innovations that tips the scales in the United States’ favor.

The outcome of the war for the best and brightest minds will determine whether the 21st
century is an American-led century – or not.

These are the stakes. We must choose our national security and economic future.

We must win this 21st century war for talent.

Author:
Dr. Alex Gallo is a US Army Veteran and author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that
discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society and highlights the analysis of
thought-leaders, policy analysts, and scholars. Alex is a Senior Vice President with NobleReach
Foundation. He also serves as a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security
Institute and an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.
Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloUSA.

Sources:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/winning-tech-talent-competition
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/03/ai-race-china-us-research
https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-approach-to-tech-talent-competition-policies-
results-and-the-developing-global-response/