BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL [login to see] AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Corrected Watches and Warnings and Hazards sections

...BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 95.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning between Sabine Pass, TX and Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7
West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A
decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and
northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of
Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is
forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the
Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O'Connor,
Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). A
NOAA buoy located just east of Galveston, Texas, has reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (66 km/h)
during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake
Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

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TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL [login to see] UTC MON SEP 21 2020

CORRECTED SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN SABINE PASS, TX AND ROCKEFELLER
WILDLIFE REFUGE, LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS TO SABINE PASS, TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY,
ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, MATAGORDA BAY, AND GALVESTON BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 95.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W...NEAR TEXAS COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W...NEAR TEXAS COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W...NEAR TEXAS COAST
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 95.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

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Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL [login to see] AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

There has been little change in Beta's overall convective structure
and intensity, with thunderstorm activity pulsing near the center
while the outer rain bands have changed little and keep rotating
onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Dry air
intrusions into the inner-core region have continued to prevent
Beta from strengthening by eroding the central dense overcast
(CDO). The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showing peak SFMR surface
winds of 40-45 kt and maximum flight-level winds of 50 kt so far,
along with a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 996-997 mb.

Beta now appears to be moving west-northwestward at a slightly
faster forward speed, with the initial motion estimated to be 290/06
kt based on data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars from
Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. The forecast discussion is the
same old song as it was 24 hours ago with Beta expected to move just
inland over the central Texas coastal Plain in about 12-18 hours,
followed by a sharp decrease in motion, possibly resulting in Beta
stalling for a few hours as steering currents collapse. A trough to
the west combines with a broad ridge to the east located over the
Gulf of Mexico to begin nudging Beta slowly northeastward or
east-northeastward in 24-36 hours, followed by a slightly faster
forward speed on days 3 and 4, which will continue until the cyclone
dissipates over Mississippi by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, keeping
Beta just inland or near the Texas coast through 60 hours, a
scenario that is close to the various consensus models, and which
lies between the more westward-and-inland ECMWF solution and the
more eastward-and-overwater GFS track forecast.

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is not only
expected to keep Beta's track close to the coastline, but it will
also affect the cyclone's intensity along with land interaction.
The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more
likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force
winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48
hours. Given that the models over the past 24 hours have been
trending toward a track closer to the coast, the NHC official
intensity remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies a
little above all of the available guidance through 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
24H 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
60H 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
72H 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND


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