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This research gives a better understanding of the Social Security Trust Fund (SSA). The umbrella over the research is the solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds.
Based on the most recent publicly available projections (the 2025 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees):
Social Security Solvency Projections
The projections are usually given for the two main Social Security Trust Funds (OASI and DI) separately, and then on a combined basis (OASDI).
| **Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)** (Retirement & Survivor) | 2033 | 77% |
| **Disability Insurance (DI)** (Disability Benefits) | **Not projected to be depleted** | 100% (through 2099) |
| **Combined (OASDI)** (Hypothetical combined funds) | **2034** | **81%** |
Key Takeaways:
1. **"Depletion" Does Not Mean "Bankrupt":** If the Trust Funds' reserves are depleted, it does not mean Social Security stops. It means the program's incoming payroll tax revenue will only be sufficient to pay a portion of the promised benefits.
2. **The Largest Fund is at Risk Sooner:** The **OASI** fund, which pays all retirement benefits, is projected to run out of reserves in **2033**.
3. **The Disability Fund is Stronger:** The **DI** fund is projected to remain solvent throughout the entire 75-year projection period.
4. **The Benefit Cut:** If no legislative changes are made by the combined depletion date of 2034, benefits would have to be reduced to match the incoming tax revenue. At that point, beneficiaries would only receive about 81% of their scheduled benefits.
### The Underlying Problem
The long-term shortfall is primarily driven by demographics:
The Aging Population:** The large Baby Boomer generation is moving into retirement.
Declining Worker-to-Beneficiary Ratio: In 1970, there were 3.7 workers for every Social Security beneficiary; today, that ratio is about 2.7. By 2034, it is projected to drop further to 2.3.
Increased Longevity: People are living longer and collecting benefits for more years.
The Trustees urge Congress to address the funding shortfall sooner rather than later to allow for gradual changes that give workers and retirees time to adjust.
Based on the most recent publicly available projections (the 2025 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees):
Social Security Solvency Projections
The projections are usually given for the two main Social Security Trust Funds (OASI and DI) separately, and then on a combined basis (OASDI).
| **Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)** (Retirement & Survivor) | 2033 | 77% |
| **Disability Insurance (DI)** (Disability Benefits) | **Not projected to be depleted** | 100% (through 2099) |
| **Combined (OASDI)** (Hypothetical combined funds) | **2034** | **81%** |
Key Takeaways:
1. **"Depletion" Does Not Mean "Bankrupt":** If the Trust Funds' reserves are depleted, it does not mean Social Security stops. It means the program's incoming payroll tax revenue will only be sufficient to pay a portion of the promised benefits.
2. **The Largest Fund is at Risk Sooner:** The **OASI** fund, which pays all retirement benefits, is projected to run out of reserves in **2033**.
3. **The Disability Fund is Stronger:** The **DI** fund is projected to remain solvent throughout the entire 75-year projection period.
4. **The Benefit Cut:** If no legislative changes are made by the combined depletion date of 2034, benefits would have to be reduced to match the incoming tax revenue. At that point, beneficiaries would only receive about 81% of their scheduled benefits.
### The Underlying Problem
The long-term shortfall is primarily driven by demographics:
The Aging Population:** The large Baby Boomer generation is moving into retirement.
Declining Worker-to-Beneficiary Ratio: In 1970, there were 3.7 workers for every Social Security beneficiary; today, that ratio is about 2.7. By 2034, it is projected to drop further to 2.3.
Increased Longevity: People are living longer and collecting benefits for more years.
The Trustees urge Congress to address the funding shortfall sooner rather than later to allow for gradual changes that give workers and retirees time to adjust.
What the data says about Social Security
Posted from pewresearch.orgPosted in these groups: Social Security Administration
Retirement
Retirement
Posted 29 d ago
Responses: 1
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The government should have kept social security as a separate fund and it most likely wouldn't be having the issues it does. It's hard enough for people that depend heavily on SS as it is, how will they survive if they cut the amount they get in 2033?
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COL Randall C.
SPC Jeff Daley, PhD - Agree, but they have since moved on from that and increased the rate to compensate as well to adjust to 'we need more'. I'm not saying they've done a great job of that, but the benefit and revenue structure of SS from the start of the program is significantly different than those now.
In 1937, the SS tax was only 2% and earnings were capped at $3,000/year. It's been steadily increasing since 1950 to the current amount of 12.4% (that hasn't changed since 1990) and an earnings cap of $176,100/year.
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* SSA Contribution and benefit base - https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/cbb.html
* Social Security and Medicare Tax Rate - https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/taxRates.html
In 1937, the SS tax was only 2% and earnings were capped at $3,000/year. It's been steadily increasing since 1950 to the current amount of 12.4% (that hasn't changed since 1990) and an earnings cap of $176,100/year.
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* SSA Contribution and benefit base - https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/cbb.html
* Social Security and Medicare Tax Rate - https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/taxRates.html
Cost of Living Adjustment
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Cpl Vic Burk
SPC Jeff Daley, PhD - I look for them to eventually eliminate the cap on how much you can make before they stop taking out SS tax. COL Randall C.
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COL Randall C.
Cpl Vic Burk - Agree, but that earnings cap is also tied to the cap on the maximum benefits you can get, so unless they change the law, the monthly benefit would go up on high income earners as well. Right now if you had maxed out earnings for all 35 years and delayed taking social security until 70, you would get $5,108 a month, which is the theoretical max.
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Cpl Vic Burk
COL Randall C. - I didn't say it was a smart move! But that may be the direction they head in the future.
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