Responses: 3
CWO3 Dennis M. not in agreement with their actions, just looking at it through the lense of rational actors. The map of the world looks different when you put the Phillipimes at the center of it. The 9 line maps the PRC are pushing would absorb several nations and their territorial waters, never mind international waters.
So they are citing a funhouse mirror logic for the Mischief Reef land grab. The Phillipines have been pissed since we left. I think they are hedging that the US won't be there and are backing the regional hegemon in hopes they won't get swallowed. The PRC's track record is to strip what they want and leave, if the partner country doesn't like it - Screw you, we paid you. That's the Central African experience. They will come and take, but because they want to make the pacific their front porch, they'll be there to stay. Gas and oil in the South China Sea are part of what is driving this. Eventually they'll hit the right claim and develop the technological means to exploit it. That's only one part of the end game. 2/3 of the world's shipping passes through these areas. Undersea mining for metals may also be there. The area will become no go for the US, having that strategic buffer. Taiwan will be compelled to finally accept communist rule. Quite surprised China has not used the Russian play book of using little green men to subvert Taiwan's internal security.
As you know being a Naval Officer, those FON patrols must continue to contest territory grabs by the International Laws of the Sea. You must contest a claim, otherwise possession becomes 9/10ths. You must also protest the claim, which I think the US, Vietnam, the Phillipines, and Japan are among those that have.
So they are citing a funhouse mirror logic for the Mischief Reef land grab. The Phillipines have been pissed since we left. I think they are hedging that the US won't be there and are backing the regional hegemon in hopes they won't get swallowed. The PRC's track record is to strip what they want and leave, if the partner country doesn't like it - Screw you, we paid you. That's the Central African experience. They will come and take, but because they want to make the pacific their front porch, they'll be there to stay. Gas and oil in the South China Sea are part of what is driving this. Eventually they'll hit the right claim and develop the technological means to exploit it. That's only one part of the end game. 2/3 of the world's shipping passes through these areas. Undersea mining for metals may also be there. The area will become no go for the US, having that strategic buffer. Taiwan will be compelled to finally accept communist rule. Quite surprised China has not used the Russian play book of using little green men to subvert Taiwan's internal security.
As you know being a Naval Officer, those FON patrols must continue to contest territory grabs by the International Laws of the Sea. You must contest a claim, otherwise possession becomes 9/10ths. You must also protest the claim, which I think the US, Vietnam, the Phillipines, and Japan are among those that have.
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CWO3 Dennis M.
LTC Jason Mackay I fear you are correct and I do see history repeating it's self in the South China sea. When SEATO dissolved, and the Brits turn over of Hong Kong to Red China, I suspected China saw a green light and was already in the planning stages of unrestricted expansion, and I am sure Taiwan is in the sights of China as well. Whether we will back them up will depend on our own political landscape. I fear the disputed Islands that China built have a mush more sinister role to play in China's expansion. FON must continue as well as the rebuilding of our military. I suspect if China see's even a hiccup in our military posture, and international stance, they WILL leap.
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CWO3 Dennis M.
SSgt GG-15 RET Jim Lint -I agree, and fear you are correct, China is the new Japan. I was not around until 1947, but, I grew up surrounded by WWII GI's and heard an ear full from them, none of it pretty! And, we were taught history in school...unlike what our schools are doing today!
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LTC Jason Mackay
CWO3 Dennis M. the Chinese strategic thinking is in100 year slews. This has been the agenda since 1949
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