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James Lieks' article on September 11th, 2003 inspired the following thought process:
Predicting the future is hard. And predicting the future of war and conflict is even harder. In the 1950's the United States underwent a shift in its strategic thinking about what the next war would be like. The next war, it was decided would be one fought with words and diplomacy, or it would be fought with nuclear weapons delivered by rockets and airpower. We would either talk things out, or cities, countries, and the entire world would burn.
Then came Korea and Vietnam. Small wars. Small bloody wars. Conflicts made bloodier by a lack of training, focus, discipline, and vision that was lost when we decided the next war would be nuclear.
We adapted, we shifted our thinking, learned the lessons paid for in blood and treasure, and by the time the Soviets rolled into Afghanistan, we used those lessons to fight our own proxy war.
And then the Cold War ended, and we forgot again. Peace was here, there would be no more war.
On September 11th, 2001 we paid the price for our forgotten lessons.
Predicting the future is hard. And predicting the future of war and conflict is even harder. In the 1950's the United States underwent a shift in its strategic thinking about what the next war would be like. The next war, it was decided would be one fought with words and diplomacy, or it would be fought with nuclear weapons delivered by rockets and airpower. We would either talk things out, or cities, countries, and the entire world would burn.
Then came Korea and Vietnam. Small wars. Small bloody wars. Conflicts made bloodier by a lack of training, focus, discipline, and vision that was lost when we decided the next war would be nuclear.
We adapted, we shifted our thinking, learned the lessons paid for in blood and treasure, and by the time the Soviets rolled into Afghanistan, we used those lessons to fight our own proxy war.
And then the Cold War ended, and we forgot again. Peace was here, there would be no more war.
On September 11th, 2001 we paid the price for our forgotten lessons.
LILEKS (James) The Bleat
Posted from lileks.com
GWOT
Cold War
9/11
Future
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 1
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Yes predicting the future is indeed hard which is why managing risk is a crucial aspect of readiness for war SSG (Join to see)
Too often, in the past, the expectation was that future warfare would resemble past warfare.
Thankfully there has been a gradual shift from that paradigm in many quarters.
Too often, in the past, the expectation was that future warfare would resemble past warfare.
Thankfully there has been a gradual shift from that paradigm in many quarters.
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SSG (Join to see)
Its a damned if you do, and damned if you don't. If you train to fight the last war and the next one is different, you are damned. If you train to fight the next war (as we did when we assumed WWIII would be nuclear) you are damned when it isn't (Korea).
We don't have the resources in time, personnel, or will to train to fight every war.
We don't have the resources in time, personnel, or will to train to fight every war.
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